4imprint Share Discussion Threads

[gargleblaster] 23/1/2015 02:36

This is one of Shares mags (15) tips for 2015 - looking good!

4imprint (FOUR) 850p

Gain to date: 6.3%
Original entry price: 800p (23 Dec ’14)
Promotional products play 4imprint (FOUR) is off to a solid start as a constituent of our ‘15 for 2015’ portfolio. The group says (15 Jan) full-year numbers – due on 4 March – will be ‘slightly̵7; above market expectations.
FOUR - Comparison Line Chart (Rebased to first)
The main driver for the beat is surging growth in North America with revenues from that core market up 28% year-on-year in the last three months of 2014, the strongest quarter in the last four years. The update has prompted analysts to upgrade their earnings estimates with FinnCap lifting 2014 earnings per share by 7% and its 2015 forecast by 10%.

There’s more to come from 4imprint. (TS)

[snadgey] 15/1/2015 21:31

Company speaks for itself. One to sit on and watch grow.... All the best.

[gargleblaster] 15/1/2015 08:48

Excellent trading update - revenue figures seem to regularly be coming in at 25% higher than previous comparative periods and have done again. PBT slightly above expectations - pension issue dealt with. They are predominantly US which continues to hammer along unlike the rest of the world. All blue sky from the sounds of things!

[snadgey] 24/10/2014 14:25

Well, what is there to say! Blue sky from here...?

[snadgey] 15/8/2014 21:26

Heading for a drop back below £7? IC quotes company expecting to double in size by 2016.

[housemartin2] 30/7/2014 17:30

There are 1151 pensioners and 535 yet to start receiving pension in the legacy final salary scheme. Part of these liabilities are insured and FOUR is actively pursuing other strategies to reduce the liability. The current deficit is under £20m so I do not see this now being a significant problem for the Company.
Assumptions re life expectancy, inflation and discount rate (the 'remeasurement' is due to a hardening of the discount rate assumption)all seems reasonable IMV.

After a H1 increase in EPS ( diluted and continuing business) of 33%, I see MF is quoting brokers only expecting a 12m EPS growth of 3% - I think MF have got it wrong somewhere.(only IMV of course)
This company just keeps growing, generating cash and increasing dividends. While it is a punt on the US economy can that really be a negative ? Pity the market recognises its value and precludes me from topping up. Roll on the next 'correction' !

[yf23_1] 30/7/2014 14:35

Well I suppose as time goes on it will become less of a burden as the business grows and people die out.

[jeffian] 30/7/2014 14:16

yf23_1,

In another life, FOUR were old-fashioned printers - Bemrose of Derby - producing cheques for banks and the owners of Letts diaries and calendars etc. and as such they had a significant workforce. When they ditched the printing business and re-created themselves as a 'virtual' company providing promotional material, they were stuck with the legacy of providing pensions for all their previous employees (of whom, I am guessing, there are several thousand). I think you will find the 'remeasurement' is just a reassessment of their obligations as former employees either reach retirement age or die. I know all this because Bemrose bought the assets of a family business - K&J printers of West Bromwich - and I held shares then but ditched them at 45p when Bemrose decided to stop printing as I didn't understand the new business. Doh! One of my worse investment decisions.

[yf23_1] 30/7/2014 13:30

Good numbers, not quite sure what remeasurement note 12 is on about though.

[snadgey] 16/7/2014 22:08

Intermins 30th July

[diggulden] 29/5/2014 23:26

Ennismore seem very hot on the stock.


We wrote on 4imprint back in January 2012 and the company has gone from strength to strength in this time growing
profits in the core business from GBP 7.7m in 2011 to GBP 11m in 2013. The company recently sold off its final non-core
division (SPS, a small UK manufacturer of promotional goods) leaving a pure promotional goods marketing business
with over 90% of sales in the United States. In the US, 4imprint is the number one player in a large (c. USD 12bn) but
highly fragmented market with revenue of GBP 228m. The company sells a broad range of products – over 100,000
different items - ranging from clothing to tools and, of course, stationery. The company acquires its customers via various
sources including 20m catalogues, samples sent to existing customers, online search, and emails. Finished products are
then customised by 4imprint's suppliers to meet the end customer's specifications. Customers are mostly smaller
businesses with none accounting for a significant share of revenues, while the supplier base is well diversified (the ten
largest make about half of the products they sell) and competitively tendered. This is essentially a sales business with
marketing costs accounting for 80% of operating costs.
The impressive increase in the number of orders from existing customers has continued going from 226,000 in 2010 to
387,000 in 2013 and is key as prior customers have a much higher response rate (more than 30% repeat order in the first
year) as opposed to less than 1% response rates for catalogues sent to potential new buyers. Therefore over time the same
marketing spend will yield higher sales and profits and a larger marketing budget to reinvest in acquiring more direct
customers, creating a virtuous circle. The company continues to grow revenues at about 15% a year, with only a small
decline even in 2009 when the market for promotional products declined by about 20%, and we expect them be able to
continue this for many years given their low market share combined with relative scale, at around twice the size of their
nearest competitor. In the first quarter this year this trend continued with sales growing at 16%, and North America
growing 23% in US dollars. The company, as is, has a track record of pretty consistent profit growth over the last eight
years at almost 17% per annum and we see no reason why this can't continue into the medium term. Operating margins
now sit at over 5%, however due to the very low capital requirement this converts to a post-tax return of around 100%.
We expect margins to slowly increase due to better central cost coverage and some scale benefits. For further information please contact: Eleanor Scott, Ennismore Fund Management [phone] [e-mail]
For dealing please contact: Northern Trust International Fund Administration
Services (Ireland) Ltd
[phone] [e-mail]

Warning: This newsletter is issued by Ennismore Fund Management Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
The value of shares can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Changes in rates of exchange may also cause the value of shares to fluctuate. Any reference to individual investments within this newsletter
should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell. This newsletter should be read in conjunction with the full text and definitions section of the Prospectus dated 2 June 2011.

Ennismore Fund Management Limited, Kensington Cloisters, 5 Kensington Church Street, London, W8 4LD
Registered in England and Wales No. 3598371 Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority
At the current share price of 700p (versus 253p when we last wrote) 4imprint has rerated substantially however we are
still a very enthusiastic shareholder. The stock now has an enterprise value of GBP 191m and we expect it to generate
operating profit of around GBP 13.5m in 2014, a multiple of 17 times 2014 operating profit after tax. The stock still has a
handy dividend yield of around 3% but we see no reason why the payout ratio shouldn't increase, due to the cash
generative nature of the business, and move quickly towards a higher yield. We view 4imprint as a cash cow, with very
little capital needs, but one that can grow at good double digit rates over the medium to long term in a huge market. The
question is what multiple is fair for these unusual attributes. Due to these traits and continued evidence of the high
quality execution from the US management we think a multiple of 20 times earnings for the core Direct Marketing
business is conservative which, after taking out central costs, leaves upside of over 35% to the end of next year.

[snadgey] 08/5/2014 08:16

Net Cash very positive again with £19m in the bank, up from £16m end Dec.

[napoleon 14th] 06/5/2014 20:47

Now going for the résistances around 700p.

Might take a while, but blue sky after that.....

[napoleon 14th] 28/4/2014 18:10

"FOUR directors dumping 1m shares" was someone's version...

Let's get this straight.....

at 13:16hrs:

"The Company announces that vesting and performance conditions under the 2011 Performance Share Plan were satisfied on 27 April 2014.

Following the satisfaction of these conditions, the Company has been advised by the Executive Directors (John Poulter, Gillian Davies, Kevin Lyons-Tarr and Andrew Scull) and one senior employee of their intention to sell up to 1,000,000 Ordinary Shares in the Company in aggregate (the "Placing").
Two thirds of the shares being sold are to meet tax liabilities."

at 14:42hrs

"Further to the announcement made earlier on 28 April 2014 by the Company that four Directors and one senior employee intended to sell up to 1,000,000 Ordinary Shares, we can now confirm that 994,548 Ordinary Shares have been sold at a placing price of 630 pence per ordinary share."

There was a short wobbly for a few minutes (FOUR!).
An hour & a half to place £6.3M of stock shows they're hardly unwanted.
I've held FOUR since Oct '10 @ 250p. Ain't gonna stop now!
sp up 1.85% on the day....

GLA.

[yf23_1] 23/4/2014 17:01

Intra-day chart is garbage

[yf23_1] 23/4/2014 11:48

Why are the ADVFN charts saying 631p when trades are 645-666 ???

[snadgey] 23/4/2014 08:10

Good IMS today

[snadgey] 31/3/2014 20:58

... nice quick recovery!..... so quick I missed the chance to buy more :-(

Thanks for the IMS reminder Opener - just added to my calendar.

[opener] 31/3/2014 15:32

Next IMS will be due on AGM day so 6th May.

[wazzer82] 31/3/2014 14:26

cheers for the reply just wanted to check I haven't missed anything, however, things seem to be stabalising a little today.

[snadgey] 29/3/2014 12:18

No news - I suspect profit taking (see the chart) and general mid-cap sell off. I'm not panicked by this - seeing it as a chance to buy more!

As Richard Beddard stated on 14th March - FOUR "might be a great company." I agree.

[...]

[wazzer82] 28/3/2014 17:07

Anyone know why people have been selling left,right and centre over the last few days? Seems strange as I haven't seen any news!

[snadgey] 14/3/2014 17:24

Nice buy recommendation in IC today

[yf23_1] 05/3/2014 12:24

Decent enough results. Postive going forward but bit of a headwind due to strong sterling.
Increasing interest rates will help alleviate pension deficit.