4imprint Share Discussion Threads

[napoleon 14th] 19/5/2011 15:04

Cool, bb2.
Such analysis is a pleasure to share!
It isn't "news" as such; published 18/04/11, so I had no qualms reproducing it.

I had a further look at the chart, longer term, & my T1 is in fact more like 350p from '06/'07, tho' the resistance of the current uptrend could be an obstacle at c.320p.
It looks like half way thru' a BOWL - CR style - which ends at 500p; a bagger!

A pretty picture over all.

[battlebus2] 19/5/2011 14:40

Yes i was waiting for his comment not that we didn't already know the low rating here but he brings it into the open.Thanks Napoleon.

[napoleon 14th] 19/5/2011 14:23

A reminder:

David Schwartz (FT) 180411 seems to have got this right:

Turning to my own portfolio, 4Imprint (FOUR), a manufacturer and distributor of promotional products, continues to interest me. Its shares have risen since I first wrote about it six months ago but several fresh signals suggest there is a lot more juice in this tank.

As the graph shows, prices have a history of drifting sideways for several months and then suddenly shooting up after colliding with the 150-day moving average. If the past is any guide, the time is ripe for a fresh bounce. A possible trigger is the interim management statement that will be issued later this month.

The house broker's latest forecast also catches my eye. I believe it is too conservative.

I scrolled back over the past six years and noticed that revenues generally rose by 15-25 per cent per year. The single major exception was in 2009 when the worldwide recession was at its worst. Given the optimist trading statements recently released by 4Imprint, I would not be surprised if the broker's 11 per cent revenue growth forecast is comfortably exceeded.

A recovery within the US small-company segment provides potential for even bigger gains. 4Imprint generates almost two-thirds of its revenues in the US. The majority of its customers are small businesses. This segment suffered very badly in the recent recession. A serious stumbling block for them was a lack of access to bank borrowing.

According to High Frequency Economics, a well-regarded forecasting firm, the bank borrowing window is beginning to open to small US companies. Concurrently, survey evidence from the National Federation of Independent Businesses reveals that small business optimism is beginning to rise after three years of declines.

These improving conditions have the potential to further boost 4Imprint revenues and profits, which are not yet reflected in City forecasts.

Other positive points include a rising dividend trend and a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 8 for the current year (which will be even lower if my expectations are fulfilled).

It is difficult to avoid concluding that 4Imprint shares are ripe for a solid bounce.

____________

All this type of resoning has been promoted on CR's thread.

Also, seems to be breaking out of that 2011 pennant. Target 1 = 300p imo.
I hold.

[epsilon mojo] 17/5/2011 21:10

About time battlebus2, long may it continue ;-)

[cfro] 17/5/2011 18:33

That was a nice move towards the end, especially as the markets were falling! :0))

[battlebus2] 17/5/2011 18:18

Episilon Mojo we are now moving.

[simon42] 17/5/2011 16:12

Very nice move on up in poor markets.

[chrisb1103] 17/5/2011 15:47

Moving again here... don't reckon there's too much stock around tbh so maybe start of that bigger move from here?

[cfro] 13/5/2011 18:24

Finally a little movement. Hopefully we will receive an even bigger move next week.

[battlebus2] 13/5/2011 14:33

Starting to move up again after those couple of trades.

[epsilon mojo] 05/5/2011 23:55

Let's hope so battlebus2, been holding for over six months now & starting to get somewhat frustrated by the lack of movement here.

Rather non-plused by the relentlessly cautious outlook from brokers/directors in the face of such strong fundamentals - looking for a change in tone by the interims.

[interceptor2] 05/5/2011 19:58

Agree about chunky dividends received yesterday :-) and into the ISA account, even better.

Next update normally due the end of June.

ic2.......

[cfro] 05/5/2011 18:13

Atleast i've had a lovely chunky divi added to my account today.

[battlebus2] 05/5/2011 17:11

All can change quickly so don't be fooled by today.

[epsilon mojo] 05/5/2011 15:28

Not too surprised at the fall given the extremely cautious outlook for eps growth; seems I may have to wait until after the interims for £3-4 (as will the directors for their overly generous options).

[kimball808] 05/5/2011 12:55

good buying point...

[battlebus2] 04/5/2011 21:09

Dividend was paid today.

[chrisb1103] 04/5/2011 19:33

Thanks for the forecast updates ic2, room to beat there i'd have thought? seem quite unexciting as you say CR so plenty of room for upgrades which I'd have thought from the recent statement and the confidence they are showing for their weaker quarter are looking quite probable. So still seems on for a decent rise here imo, maybe just need to watch for a bit of volume to clear before we get the next leg up?

[battlebus2] 04/5/2011 18:46

I think these will jump very quickly soon so hold tight.

[cockneyrebel] 04/5/2011 16:52

Not sure what to make of Peel Hunt's forecasts - unexciting but then the might be holding back till the result are out.

CR

[farnesbarnes] 04/5/2011 15:51

I'd hope for positive share price movement before August ic2. Seems to me the chart is readying itself for a move sooner rather than later.

[interceptor2] 04/5/2011 08:23

Peel Hunt forecasts do seem very conservative, but at least they are starting to increase them now. 4imprint increased net margins in 2010 to 4.4%, which is already at the height they reached in the last cycle when the price was 500p. Half year results in August should be the catalyst here imo, plus news on the pension deficit.

ic2.......

[epsilon mojo] 04/5/2011 01:27

Agree - very cheap & good to see the first of several upgrades imv, but still incredibly cautious forecasts for eps growth - only 3% from 2011 to 2012 despite 15% increase in PBT.

Views anyone and/or a Peel Hunt note on this?