4imprint Share Discussion Threads

[chrisb1103] 03/8/2011 06:37

Good results for me! Let's hope this market thinks so...

Underlying operating profit was GBP4.84m, an increase of 33% (half year 2010: GBP3.64m)
Underlying basic earnings per share 13.93p, up 24% (half year 2010: 11.23p)

Interim divi up 6% - 5p here to those on register on 12 August

"The Group has made good progress in the first half of the financial year. Revenue and profit are both well ahead of prior year particularly in North America, where we continue to gain market share. The Group is cash generative, has low debt and a strong platform for growth and is therefore well positioned to make further progress"

[interceptor2] 02/8/2011 12:15

Maybe. I'm not holding ar present, but will be interested to see tomorrows results.

ic2...

[cfro] 04/7/2011 17:36

So no trading update mores the pitty and will now have to wait utill 3rd August. Never mind i may have time to top-up before then.

[battlebus2] 04/7/2011 17:33

Well results the 3rd of August then.

[interceptor2] 30/6/2011 15:30

Thanks for the PH forecasts, still the same but could change on the next trading update.

And yes totally agree about prefering broker forecasts to be on the conservative side. It's better to under promise and over deliver. I had better not become a broker, I'm always far too optimistic. When I work out future earnings for a price target I have to force myself to deduct at least 20% due to my optimistic nature. ;o)

ic2...

[calahan] 30/6/2011 15:20

@ ic2, here's the PH forecasts from today's note.

Y/E Dec 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E

Sales(£m) 200.8 214.2 228.8 245.0
EBITDA(£m) 12.6 14.4 16.1 17.6
Op Margin(%) 5.1 5.6 5.9 6.1
Adj PBT(£m) 9.8 11.6 13.3 14.8
Adj EPS(p) 31.4 34.7 35.8 39.2
EPS growth(%) 103.6 10.4 3.2 9.6
DPS(p) 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.8
PER(x) 8.6 7.8 7.5 6.9
Div yield(%) 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.8
FCF yield(%) 9.9 6.2 8.7 8.9
EV/EBITDA(x) 5.6 4.9 4.2 3.7

----------------------

I'm happy with the PH target price, not that I don't agree it's probably on the low side, but I personally tend to prefer conservative broker estimates. As then more chances of (good) companies beating those forecasts thereby generating strong momentum and confidence from that positive news flow. And I find this is usually to be preferred to over optimistic estimates that cause (good) companies to miss broker estimates, and then suffer downgrades and bad sentiment due to missing those estimates that have possibly been set by some over zealous brokers (Especially if broker coverage is limited). And after missing those estimates, there's the potential for subsequent downgrades being largely caused by nothing more than those over zealous brokers getting a dose of reality and revising their estimates to more sensible levels.

Plus I've found spotting (good) companies with overly low broker estimates to be a useful starting point to finding some unloved fruits :)

All IMHO of course.

[interceptor2] 30/6/2011 13:26

Agree cfro, my first price target is 390p, so I think we are looking at FOUR the same way.

ic2...

[cfro] 30/6/2011 11:46

Way too conservative that Peel Hunt target price imo.

A PE of 10 - 11 would put the share price on £3.50 to £ 3.85....providing newsflow remains strong.

[interceptor2] 30/6/2011 09:09

Thanks Calahan
I know Peel Hunt had a 300p target price earlier in the year, so at 330p it's moving in the right direction. I'm assumming forecast have remained unchanged until the next trading update which is due soon.

I agree that a PER of 7.8 and yield of 5.3% is attractive.

ic2...

[calahan] 30/6/2011 08:22

New broker note from Peel Hunt out today. Forecasting a 22% rise from here (270p) with a TP of 330p. (Edit - This was also their target price on 28.04.2011). Two snippets from the front page.


"Profiting from the promotional goods market, 4imprint is the leading US direct marketing promotional goods distributor. The US market has historically grown ahead of GDP and within this the direct marketing channel is taking market share. 4imprint is the leader in this channel. The company also enjoys a leading position in the European corporate programme market. All this is being delivered with modest capex and working capital needs. The company is well financed, and the valuation (headline PER of 7.8x and 5.3% yield) is attractive. Buy."


"Valuation: For a well financed company offering good revenue growth and a robust dividend, 4imprint is in our view modestly valued, even allowing for the legacy pension deficit. Our top-down valuation, supported by a sum-of-the-parts calculation, leads us to our target price of 330p, 22% above the current level. We have a Buy recommendation."

[redips2] 29/6/2011 08:30

Yes--v nice.

[farnesbarnes] 29/6/2011 06:50

L&G upped their holding 17th June by 1.4m shares. Nice.

[battlebus2] 27/6/2011 17:24

Certainly still a buy imv.

[cfro] 27/6/2011 17:22

Come back in here today. It will probably only be a trade for me tho as this move to SETS is not a good idea as others have pointed out also. Also i've never been extremely bullish about FOUR's prospects as its business of selling promotional merchandise seems a fickle business to me.

Nevertheless, i do think that FOUR is very undervalued at this price. A PE of 10 would put the shares on a share price of £3.50. And as interceptor2 points out, a trading update is due which imo can only be positive news.

[interceptor2] 27/6/2011 12:54

Agree with sentiments from chrisb1103 post 1144.

The last AGM statement confirmed that are still trading strongly, and that they are tackling the smaller SPS issues head on. With strengthened management who are to focus on selling and marketing initiatives. Then for the Chairman and FD to purchase shares at 261p and 265p after the full year results shows the confidence they feel towards future prospects.

June trading statements have been on the 28th, 16th and 26th for the last 3 years. So we should see an update very soon, maybe tomorrow?

ic2...

[napoleon 14th] 25/6/2011 12:54

Still holding that uptrend from Oct '10.
Cheap on fundies & good yield.
IMO that uptrend will hold, & a good statement will see them make up for lost time.

[chrisb1103] 23/6/2011 07:44

Sure totally see that EM, the swings here are very unsettling, but i know you'll still be keeping an eye on this one :)

200K of buys going through this morning, feel pressure is building here - hopefully for an explosion upwards!

[epsilon mojo] 23/6/2011 00:33

Good post chrisb1103 & totally agree depite selling - as you say, one "ahead of" statement & these will fly imo.

For me, though, it was the complete absence of anything approaching this, despite the good numbers, that was the main reason for me eventually selling. The lack of liquidity & eratic price action just made it unavoidable, especially when there appeared (imo) to be many other good value, less volatile & more liquid mid/large cap shares where £40k could be invested in the current climate.

All the best & gla.

[chrisb1103] 22/6/2011 22:33

Still feeling bullish about FOUR here - reckon we should get a trading update any time around now as in previous years and i reckon there's every reason to suggest it could be good...

They noted in the finals in March that "the momentum developed in the past year is evident in the early weeks of 2011" (and they had a cracking recovery year in 2010, profits/EPS up over 90%). The April IMS confirmed that: "Group revenue for the first quarter at GBP45.46m was 11% ahead of prior year". A strong result with Q1 traditionally their weakest quarter so i reckon the chairman and FD were feeling confident when they bought in March at 261 and 265 - the Chairman doubling his holding in fact.

With all these recent positive indicators i can't fathom why these are still trading on a fwd P/E for this year of 7.5 which surely looks way too cheap? If trading has remained anything like as good through Q2 the current broker forecast EPS growth of 6% looks surely very low - i'm thinking it could quite easily be smashed in fact. They're also a solid divi payer and at this price there's a great yield of 5.5% for the ISA whilst the market catches up.

So recent trading is volatile, SETS clearly a bit wild for an illiquid stock like FOUR - but i'm taking the pick up in volume as a sign a breakout could be on the cards (i think we all know one is brewing here), the strong intraday reversal today also very positive. Six months into their trading year now so they should have a good view of the year end turn out so all it needs now is a cracking "ahead" IMS.... and if they're not so bold to say it now they could be at the half year results at beginning of August. We also have to get well into the 300s here before this even hits a double digit P/E on current forecasts! Anyway, sorry to ramble on, just my thoughts... I may have it all wrong of course, but I've added a load more today on that big drop.... come on FOUR, GLA

[ukinvestor220] 22/6/2011 11:22

235 - but surprised if it goes that low

[yandc1] 22/6/2011 10:14

Maybe more big buyers is coming? It looks like good time to buy, support around 335.

[kimball808] 22/6/2011 09:25

Bit of an odd response to an Institution increasing their holding...

[valediction] 21/6/2011 17:40

Finshed 265p today, hard to tell on that chart though.