Mears Share Discussion Threads

[sphere25] 11/1/2023 15:38

Price 204p

It might be too early a call this, but there is some out of the ordinary activity on the book at MER, with what looks to be at least one large buyer placing blocks on the bid in icebergs of 8911.

A few blocks of 8911 have already been gobbled up at that 201p mark and the order is still sat there wanting more. There is also another 8911 order at 200p. It remains to be seen how big these buy orders are. The book is fluent here and orders can get removed as quickly as they are placed, but it is something worth keeping an eye on when someone starts stepping in with blocks like this, so just keeping a watchful eye to see if there is any follow through.

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 14/12/2022 09:57

Two days of decent exchanges here. Over 600k exchanged on Monday and yesterday we saw those stale bulls selling at around that 189p with blocks of 362k, 150k and 100k being mopped up for total exchanges of about 860k.

It isn't the blow out volume that can cause a clear out of sellers in one go, but enough to keep half an eye on MER. They are coming in again this morning with a little stream of buys as I type. The order book looks better bid on the book with decent demand from 190p-194p but a 71k sell order sat on the offer at 195.5p so still sellers in size about too.

Unsure if this has been tipped with this little stream of buying, but clearly there are some buyers about this week.

How about some big follow through buying to cause concern for a bullish move higher in boring old MER.

All imo
DYOR

[spooky] 14/12/2022 09:52

Volume starting to build over the last two or three days.

[buffettjnr] 08/12/2022 12:07

The whole market is too cheap. This one hardly stands out. 8PE. A bit mehh

[spooky] 08/12/2022 11:41

There has been a seller here for a while, not sure where he went when they had the recent flash up to 210. I don't think the market has fully appreciated the changes at the company over the last couple of years, particularly the improvement in the balance sheet. Not a sector/business activity that people are falling over themselves to invest in which doesn't help. I also suspect that potential investors are being influenced by earnings forecasts for next year but i expect those to be upgraded as we go though the year. Too cheap IMO.

[sphere25] 08/12/2022 10:02

The upgrades keep coming and they are confident on next year too. Alot of doom and gloom already in the price here.

In this challenging environment, not only continued performance, but continued outperformance. Defensive, value, shift from growth to value of late, decent yield, not burdened with debt. They were getting so much work they had to turn it down. There could have been even more outperformance as the last report showed labour issues stifling further growth.

After all that, it still doesn't go anywhere - just farts about in a range. Maybe the economic downturn will end up being severe.

OBR forecasts for growth:

2023: -1.4%
2024: +1.3%
2025: +2.6%

Unemployment to peak at 4.9%. Perhaps all that is miles off the mark with much stickier inflation and higher rates, or higher for alot longer than expected and maybe that also feeds into the likes of MER. If those figures are wrong but not miles out, then there is hope next year for many companies. It is just difficult to call the exact bottom.

The wider markets aren't pricing in a severe downturn, that's for sure. It makes you wonder why MER doesn't attract at least a multiple of ten. Clearly not going to get a punchy multiple here, but just looking at some basic numbers:

-->Profit to come in at £33.5m
-->Average daily net cash £40m
-->Versus market cap of £215m

It is almost being priced to go bust. Clearly must be missing alot for it not be at least somewhere in that 250p-300p range on a small multiple expansion.

I find it hard to not trade these sorts of charts, but I am in, and staying in. Maybe it won't bore your brains out someday and pop sharply higher. Perhaps some stale bulls to clear first.

Until then...

Yawn.

All imo
DYOR

[buffettjnr] 13/11/2022 17:21

It is incredibly good value. Can see it hitting 300p in no time. Perhaps something positive from North Lanarkshire?

[sphere25] 11/11/2022 16:15

192p to 209p, on decent volume of 713k.

Late afternoon spike on a Friday?

That's odd.

Completely missed the move, too sharp and not chasing it, but just trying to see if there is any news.

Too much information out there and I cba with social media. Maybe just an anomalous spike following the bullish market or something more?

Trading update due shortly. No idea if something has leaked but you usually get continued buying if it is anything more than just a one off type spike.

All imo
DYOR

[km18] 03/5/2022 12:03

Mears Group encompasses divisions providing housing services, where repairs are delivered, and capital works are developed to ensure building safety while reinforcing housing maintenance. Given the ample housing services offered, the firm was able to enhance its diversified funding structure, enabling the firm to derive a robust revenue recovery of 9%, which in turn led to a solid adjusted profit before tax of £25.6m. Considering that the group incurred a loss of £3.4m the previous year, the firm managed to optimise operating activities effectively, supported by the attractive profit rally and followed by a surge of 117% in net cash performance. This plausible market news was positively incorporated into the firm’s P/FCF of 4.6x, which is trading in 4th place within the Professional & Commercial services industry, thus ahead of most competitors. Consequently, it implied that, a wide variety of stakeholders, agencies and property viewers are interested in the firm’s housing services. As a result, EPS growth reached 37.5% and EV/EBITDA grew to 4.66x, capturing organic growth and intrinsic value, hence yielding substantial returns for investors. This evidence is supported by the Dividend yield of 4.55% since the firm has adopted a conservative dividend policy to reward shareholders for their investments. Despite the firm’s emerging financial position, the security is undervalued, illustrated by the P/E of 10.1x, lower than the Industrials P/E ratio of 22.7x, thereby it is expected to surge in value.

[sphere25] 17/3/2022 10:46

525k mopped up at 184p. Buyers in size sat there which might provide some confidence for at least a technically oversold bounce here.

We were up at near 220p with the market beginning the re-rating on the back of the recent bullish updates...and then...

Putin hammered us down.

Overdone for more defensive MER?

Results are due on 31st March.

All imo
DYOR

[pottsypotts] 07/2/2022 15:04

What's the MOD contract worth that's up for renewal in April

[castleford tiger] 07/2/2022 11:35

Had a nibble at 2.12
Tiger

[tole] 06/2/2022 07:50

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-10479781/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-Fix-finances-Mears-Group.html?Midas verdict: Social housing maintenance may not sound glamorous but the work is necessary, the benefits are tangible and contracts last for years. Most are inflation-linked too, providing an extra layer of security in today's uncertain environment. At £2.05, Mears shares are likely to deliver long-term growth and attractive dividends too. Buy.

[sphere25] 03/2/2022 14:33

Sneaky little breakout here?

It is lumpy one this so hard to tell. This is one of those shares that folk might want to cheekily stick a buy order well down on the book via DMA. You might get a fill. Look at the little plunge down today.

A slow grind higher here would be a monstrous out performance in this market. I think the institutions will get behind this.

Doing the usual off topic now. Nobody out there, benefit for the few. Boards are a ghost town.

It looks like this market has knocked the stuffing out of some. If you're in THG, BOO, ITM, ODX, ABDX, NCYT etc etc etc in the UK you likely don't want to play anymore.

If you're following the Tik Tok and Youtube brigade on crypto and the hyped meme and bonkers tech stocks like those in ARK, you don't really want to play any more.

Profit warning central or massive doubt in the likes of IGR, JOUL, STU, XLM, SDRY over here. DLAR anyone? So err yeah...not smooth.

It is a far tougher market now. Value is carrying enormous weight but it is still going to be difficult to not get clobbered more on inflation or supply chain linked issues somewhere down the line.

If in doubt, waiting for the statement first before making a move unless something exceptional happens like at LOOK. There are always a few where you can follow the buying.

Could be an interesting weekend this one, post on that tomorrow!

All imo
DYOR

[essentialinvestor] 01/2/2022 09:07

I know the company well from back in the day but find it difficult to get excited about.

Their ill timed entry in to domiciliary care is now behind them,
cash conversion looks good from today's update, but is there a compelling reason to buy?. Not sure on that.

A tie up with MTO an outside possibility. Not one for me atm but luck to holders.

[sphere25] 01/2/2022 09:00

Only an acquisition target if I am not in it :-)

I can't catch a bid to save my life! Two recent examples of blocks being bought at substantial premiums to the market price at LOOK and SAA and both turn out to be stake builders without a proper (silly merger propositions don't count) all cash offer!

They are talking about an offer over at DLAR coming in the next few months, nop....no chance. That looks a takeover or further disappoint so possibly highly binary. Suspicious one too that a large holder would put something like that out too, makes me wary.

But over at MER, that is the second upgrade in the space of just over two months. The market is behind the curve here. I think MER are going to outperform this year and there is at least 20-30% upside here once these sellers are cleared.

MER is definitely not getting the credit it deserves at the moment but let's see if someone comes in to clear out the sellers. Prone to sharp moves once sellers are cleared but an interesting one to watch through the year.

All imo
DYOR

[essentialinvestor] 01/2/2022 08:36

Possible acquisition target for MITIE?.

[essentialinvestor] 01/2/2022 08:22

Cash conversion looks strong.

[sphere25] 01/2/2022 08:04

Bought.

Only a matter of time this breakouts now.

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 07/1/2022 13:02

A little flurry of activity here to take a note of. The market has bid the price up on the back of someone coming in to gobble up 835k and 500k at 190p.

Smaller caps had their bonanza last year and then faded as the year went along. It wasn't like MER had the biggest of bonanza moves with the price still significantly off pre covid levels, but it still wasn't immune to the sentiment change.

I think it is Primestone at least partly responsible for the weakness too. They cut from 12.92% to 4.99% in late October. There are other minor moves on the register but Primestone was the big mover. Hard to not influence the price when you want to sell that many in an illiquid share like MER. The movement in the chart does tie in with that move too.

The price is moving as I type...

Keep an eye on 200p for a breakout...

I don't know if they are fully out or sold what they wanted to - Premier Miton were on the other end. Fart around in a range here for abit if sellers aren't done, but if they are, then 200p could get challenged.

It was Brough at Schroders who said that MER were having to turn work down (stick it in a queue), which ties in with revenue being ahead of expectations.

IF it can crack 200p, we could get another spike like the last time. Traded this one loads of times, posts are all above. Easier one to spot anomalous activity on...the best one was 5th Nov 2020 where there was irregular activity on the book and then......fireworks :-)

Be nice to get more of those but anywho, let's see if any more whoppers hit or 200p can get challenged.

All imo
DYOR

[masurenguy] 08/12/2021 15:36

A reminder of last months trading update issued on 25 November 2021. No position here yet.

Mears update on current trading and the outlook for the financial year to 31 December 2021.

Since the time of the half year results on 12 August 2021, trading across the Group has continued to strengthen. Based on the performance to date and with good visibility through to the end of the year, it is now expected that the Group will deliver revenues for the full financial year to 31 December 2021 of c.£850m slightly ahead of management expectations and adjusted profit before tax of c.£25m, towards the top end of its previously stated range. This improved trading performance has been driven by good demand in reactive maintenance as clients prioritise the clearance of repair backlogs and by continued elevated volumes within the Group's Management-led contracts. As previously referenced planned maintenance revenues have been slower to return to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation in the supply chain and the availability of materials and labour costs have remained manageable.

Cash generation, debt reduction and working capital management remain key objectives for the Group. Average daily net debt for the 10 months to 31 October 2021 of c.£5m is running significantly ahead of previous guidance for full year of £25m. The Board is encouraged by recent trading and the growing number of opportunities emerging across the Group. Looking to FY2022, the expected normalisation of Management-led volumes and slower recovery in planned maintenance will impact revenues, partially offset by MOJ and other 2021 business wins, supplemented by indexation ratchets within contracts. Further progress is still expected on operating margin improvements, despite industry-wide cost pressures within the supply chain, which are not expected to abate near term.

David Miles, Chief Executive Officer of the Group, commented: "I am delighted at the strong financial performance of the Group and the business remains firmly on track to deliver revenues and adjusted profit before tax for the full financial year at the top end of our previous guidance. We are trusted partners to our clients and our customer and colleague satisfaction data remain at the high levels we demand of ourselves, despite a challenging operating environment. With these fundamentals of our business in such good shape and the long-term challenges of affordable housing, public health and climate change high on the political agenda at local and central Government, we look forward to the future with confidence."

[lucy123] 16/11/2021 20:19

Any reason why the share price in dripping down every day recently?

[sphere25] 23/8/2021 08:26

Rogue closing uncrosses happen from time to time in these illiquid shares, as they do in some daily auctions. It is often on quieter day's when the participation isn't there so the rogue orders can cause an uncrossing price that deviates well beyond the offer price, the RSP or the daily VWAP.

These types of lurches can happen at any time with these illiquid shares. An example just happened now too with the bid at 204p early on, but one buyer at 08:13 has cleared out all the small orders on the offer from 217p and sat on the bid at 220p so that's a 16p leap higher in a flash.

Those orders just got sold into and now the bid is back at 211p. Iliiquid shares like this also show the importance of being very careful if using stops, easy to get closed out on a morning. Mental stops are often best with these, best to wait for the orders to fill through the morning to see how the underlying price is actually moving.

Clearly if there is bad news or some major sell off about to happen in wider markets, then folk might just accept the existing bid or less, depending on their time horizon.

All imo
DYOR

[lucy123] 20/8/2021 16:51

Closes at 207p, after 2 auction extensions, 698 UT shares traded at 224p, what’s going on!.

[sphere25] 17/8/2021 16:38

Who done that?

Who done that?

Who caused that big breakout?

Market isn't waiting for anyone.

Still, it pays to watch where the anomalous demand is coming in

One or two good one's more than offset the duff/non-starters.


All imo
DYOR