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Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marlowe Plc | LSE:MRL | London | Ordinary Share | GB00BD8SLV43 | ORD 50P |
Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-2.00 | -0.39% | 506.00 | 506.00 | 510.00 | 509.00 | 507.00 | 507.00 | 342,407 | 16:35:29 |
Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Investors, Nec | 465.7M | -3.8M | -0.0393 | -129.26 | 491.62M |
Date | Subject | Author | Discuss |
---|---|---|---|
02/4/2024 08:58 | Had a positive research note from Cavendish this morning with a 775p 12month price target. Reckons once the deal completes the debt questions will be over and it should lead to a rerating. | dr biotech | |
29/2/2024 11:43 | I think you'd be right to wonder if any of the parties they talked too would now be interested. The multiples are increasing - just look at PTSG to Macquarie and then PTSG to Warburg Pincus. Maybe PTSG were one of those parties. | thelung | |
29/2/2024 10:41 | Thanks, thats a decent write up. I guess we have to wait for the deal to complete then have a set of clean accounts for the remainder to understand the value in the remainder. I'd assume that they tried to sell the TIC division first as was touted. I wonder if any of the parties they talked too would be interested in it post divestment? It wouldn't surprise me to see this sold with a year. | dr biotech | |
29/2/2024 06:46 | Inflexion Deal Gives Marlowe Scope For A Big Rerating By Mark Watson-Mitchell 28 February 2024 In February 2021, Marlowe (LON:MARL), the safety and regulatory compliance services group, set out a new three-year strategy to achieve an aim of doubling group revenues to around £500m, while almost tripling group adjusted EBITDA to some £100m, with a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin and delivering over 90% cash conversion. It also targeted a software ARR of at least 10% of overall group revenues. The basis of delivering that new strategy was its ‘Deepen, Broaden, Strengthen and Digitalise’ plan. At the time of announcing that new plan its shares were trading at around 680p, they peaked at 1,020p in December 2021, a year later they were down to 405p – typically showing the vagaries of the marketplace. Market Whispers In early July last year, I noted to Master Investor subscribers that recent market whispers had suggested that the group was contemplating the sell-off of its testing, inspection and certification division, with £650m possibly being the currently negotiated disposal value. At that time, when its shares were 576p, I opined that if the market rumours prove to be well-founded then such a TIC side disposal would clear the group’s £160m net debt position and leave it very well funded for future impactive acquisitions. However – Think Again Instead of selling off TIC, the group has agreed to sell certain of its Governance, Risk & Compliance software and services assets to Inflexion Private Equity for an enterprise value of £430m on a debt-free, cash-free basis. That side generates some 40% of the group’s total EBITDA. Marlowe said that the divestment, which accounts for around 20% of its revenue, contributed £85.8m in revenue and £31.4m in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation in the year ended March 31. Upon completion of the deal the group intends to fully retire its debt facility, and then return around £150m of cash to its shareholders. What Is Left? The divestment does not include Marlowe’s Compliance Services businesses in OH and TIC, which represented approximately 80% of Group revenues in FY23. The remaining business, which would be left with a net cash position of about £60m at year end, would be split into two main divisions – TIC and OH. Testing, Inspection And Certification The TIC side services largely revolve around keeping its customers business premises safe and compliant with relevant regulation and legislation, addressing compliance requirements across fire safety & security, and water & air hygiene. This division is focussed on ensuring the safety and compliance of customers’ business premises in accordance with relevant regulation and legislation. With a focus on fire safety & security and water & air hygiene, its comprehensive services cater to some 27,000 customers. This extensive support is delivered by around 1,900 specialists who consistently achieve best-in-class compliance rates, reinforcing the division’s market-leading position. Operating on largely multiyear contracts, its offerings are underpinned by regulations making them mandatory, which results in a high degree of recurring revenues. Occupational Health Marlowe’s Occupational Health division is the UK leader in the occupational health and wellbeing sector. The backdrop for the UK workforce is one that is getting older and progressively less healthy with an estimated £90bn+ lost through absence and presenteeism in the UK. In addition, the compliance burden for employers is significantly increasing. Its comprehensive OH services improve the health & wellbeing of its customers’ employees, minimising workplace risk and maximising corporate productivity. The services are delivered, often through multi-year contracts, by some 900 occupational health clinicians to over 3,000 customers. Like the TIC division, it ensures compliance with regulations, such as HSE, COSHH, Noise at Work Regulations and the Working Time Directive, which provides a high degree of recurring revenues. Knowledgeable Share Trading Perhaps A week ago, the group’s shares, just two days ahead of the deal announcement, were trading at only 360p – the next day they responded to some possibly knowledgeable buying, closing at 425p. On Thursday 22nd February, upon the announcement they hit 600p with some 6.57m shares changing hands that day, before closing at 502p. Too Low A Valuation Last Friday saw another 2.13m shares traded, closing at 530p, valuing the whole group at just £509m. That is far too low a valuation, assuming the deal completes. This Inflexion transaction leaves the group’s investors with 60% of the generating businesses and clears all debt, while putting £60m of cash into the bank, as well as £150m cash being given back to shareholders (just how that is going to be done is yet to be announced – hopefully a cash payment as opposed to a ‘buyback&rsquo This disposal simplifies the group’s focus and strategy upon its core compliance services businesses and is sure to be a major ‘swivel-point& Management Comment Chairman Kevin Quinn stated that: “This divestment represents an excellent outcome for Marlowe and its shareholders and underscores the significant value that has been created through the delivery of our growth strategy. The valuation achieved demonstrates the substantial potential within our business and will reset our capital structure, giving Marlowe strategic agility whilst delivering meaningful returns to our shareholders.” The Equity There are some 96.8m shares in issue. Largest shareholder, Michael Ashcroft, with 12.27% of the equity must be pleased to witness the Inflexion deal. Other large holders include Capital Research & Management (7.14%), Slater Investments (5.543%), Abrdn Investment Management (4.97%), Threadneedle Asset Management (3.81%), Aegon Asset Management (2.96%), Canaccord Genuity Wealth (2.69%), Danske Bank (1.17%) and Sp-Fund Management (1.03%). Current but soon departing CEO Alex Dacre, who will transfer with the Divestment, holds 4.84% of the Marlowe equity. Where To Now The divestment will allow the group to capitalise on the inherently attractive end markets of TIC and OH, to strengthen its balance sheet while also providing an opportunity for a more optimised approach to capital allocation. In due course it may well invest in carefully selected bolt-on acquisition opportunities across the remaining Occupational Health and TIC assets once restructuring investments in respect of historically completed acquisitions have reduced. It may be too soon yet to predict the levels to where its shares are headed, but they continue to have strong appeal. Analyst Calum Battersby at Berenberg retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 720p on the stock, anticip There are 5 analysts that follow the company, the consensus average Price Objective is 748p, with the highest price sought is 1,000p, while the lowest is just 453p. The shares closed last night at just 512.50p, valuing the whole group at just £496m, which makes them look like an extremely attractive proposition. (Profile 30.01.20 @ 468p set a Target Price of 550p*) | mirabeau | |
23/2/2024 13:52 | Bit from Berenberg Overall, said Berenberg, the announcements are ‘undoubtedly positive for shareholders following a turbulent period for the company’s share price’. The broker, which has a ‘buy’ rating and 720p price target for Marlowe, sees a strong argument for a higher valuation ‘given that the group’s balance sheet has been de-risked, capital can now be reinvested in growth, and the group’s future equity story is significantly cleaner than it has been of late. This is our view, although we expect this may take time to pan out, as the company’s future strategy is made clear.’ | dr biotech | |
23/2/2024 13:32 | All quite today, we may see a slow climb now the excitement has died down | hatfullofsky | |
22/2/2024 20:55 | They may be able to do a "return of capital" rather than a dividend as this would be funded by a sale rather than earnings. I'm not 100% sure on this but the tax rules would make it more beneficial. Makes little difference if you hold them in an ISA or SIPP as I do. Difficult to value the remaining business. Wouldn't surprise me if that gets sold off too later in the year. They probably couldn't get the reported 600m but 500m may be possible (yes I am just waving my finger in the air) which would give a total return of about 700p. Doubt I'll remain a LTH here - its one of my few successful trading shares though of course I should have sold out at much higher levels. Still its been a decent gain over the last two days. | dr biotech | |
22/2/2024 19:52 | Redwing, thank you very much yes I had not included the debt. Good spot thanks again | hatfullofsky | |
22/2/2024 18:40 | June 2023 they thought the TIC business could be worth £600m. Since they clearly did not get it does not mean its a pup, just worth less. As i see it when the t/o has been done they will have £200m net cash or 200p a share and the TIC business (and Health business?) making £50m plus in Ebitda. Clearly need to account for tax and central costs and tax on a shareholder dividend if thats there chosen route for shareholder distribution. Should do a tender or buyback. On that basis it still looks good value. | elsa7878 | |
22/2/2024 18:26 | Can't see any mention but by giving a net figure and saying it will be used for £200m debt repayment, £150m for shareholders and the balance for working capital, that there id no tax to pay. Anybody any clearer on this. Thanks | elsa7878 | |
22/2/2024 17:00 | hatfullofsky - I think what you are missing is the current debt of £192m. Your calculation should be Enterprise Value - net divestment = market cap of £281m. Still good value given the retained revenue and EBITDA but not an absolute steal, especially since they have sold the better part of the business. | redwing1 | |
22/2/2024 16:24 | They didn't say a lot - perhaps they will give more details over the next few days. I guess there is going to be a bit of selling today by those that obviously knew about this yesterday. Hopefully will rise over the next week or so. | dr biotech | |
22/2/2024 16:18 | Continuing operations ("Compliance Services") comprise the Testing, Inspection and Certification ("TIC") and Occupational Health ("OH") businesses. Based on FY23 Revenue £380m adj EBITDA £51.3m Net Cash £61m At 510p MCAP £494m - £405m (net divestment) = Retained MCAP £89m That's CRAZY, what am I missing here and why has this not risen another 150p | hatfullofsky | |
22/2/2024 13:42 | What do they say about the TIC and occupational health rump? Many thanks | elsa7878 | |
22/2/2024 08:23 | Think he is just transferring with the business. My average here is around 450, sold some around 600p last year in what looks like a decent trade, if you ignore the fact I didn't sell when they were 850p+ Just had a note from Cavendish - they have withdrawn guidance but just say its a good deal. Think I'll probably sell in the next few weeks, will wait for the details. | dr biotech | |
22/2/2024 08:08 | CEO out as well - to re-emerge at Inflexion or lick his wounds? | eigthwonder | |
22/2/2024 07:48 | Yep. Leaves us with the TIC and about £200m. Presumably they couldn't get the price they wanted for the TIC - rumoured last year to be asking for £600m. If it can be valued at £400m that will give us a substantial rise today. | dr biotech | |
22/2/2024 07:24 | News out "Binding agreement to dispose of certain GRC software and services assets for an enterprise value of £430 million in cash"Surprised its GRC assets being sold not TIC, but either way, it's a welcome development for shareholders | 1nf3rn0 | |
21/2/2024 17:55 | rumours.... Betaville intelligence: RARE ALERT: Marlowe said to ..... maybe sell TIC segment? | gusrezo | |
21/2/2024 17:16 | Decent rise. Maybe they are close to spinning off one of the divisions | dr biotech | |
07/12/2023 16:09 | About to test May 2017's share price | mcmather | |
01/12/2023 14:04 | Enroute to test the 4 year low? | mcmather | |
01/12/2023 11:28 | Sick as a parrot.......Dr Biotech on point | trustman | |
28/11/2023 14:01 | The last 2 purchases are buys 4.1675 and at 4.17 | siddiqur | |
28/11/2023 13:53 | They're showing buys as sells | siddiqur |
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