Bulletin coupé

EUROPE: 

======= 

European stocks should extend gains Monday, with DAX futures up 11 points and FTSE 100 futures 24 points higher. 

German data dominates the start of next week, with a number of preliminary readings on purchasing managers' indices set for publication toward its end.

Tuesday sees a reading on German economic sentiment. The ZEW indicator on business expectations is predicted to dip slightly to 18.1, following November's disappointingly meager rise to 18.7, below economic forecasts. An assessment of Germany's economic situation, however, is predicted to inch 0.1 points higher.

Wednesday sees more German data, with final numbers on inflation in Europe's largest economy, which came last month. Figures on Eurozone industrial production for October are also set for release the same day.

Finally, on Thursday, expect a swathe of preliminary PMI numbers on services and manufacturing in December for France, Germany and the Eurozone, as well as a preliminary composite PMI figure for the Eurozone. Analysts forecast a slightly lesser pace of growth for all these measures, with only preliminary German services PMI seen rising over last month's data.

Thursday also see the release of policy statements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The ECB Bank is expected to leave its policies unchanged, but its economists are expected to raise their growth forecasts once again, a sign that 2018 may see the end of the ECB's bond-buying program launched in early 2015.

When raising rates last month, the BOE bank indicated further tightening would be gradual and limited, indicating just two more quarter-point increases by the end of 2020.

European Union officials said the U.S. is threatening to cripple global commerce by undermining the World Trade Organization, ahead of a gathering of officials from 164 countries on Sunday in Buenos Aires. EU officials said the U.S. is pulling back from its position as the world's pre-eminent guardian of free trade, and that the resulting lack of broader ambition among WTO members will likely make the trade gathering unproductive.

"This is not going to be one of these occasions where we do dramatic steps forward," European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said Friday.

She expressed particular concern about the U.S. blocking appointments to a WTO appellate body that resolves trade disputes, which she said risks sabotaging the system of global trade.

U.S. officials have said the WTO needs to change to adapt to current challenges. The U.S. delegation will advocate for American interests and fair trade while also pushing for changes in the global trade system, administration officials said.

US/ASIE: 

============= 

The first U.S. bitcoin futures market kicked off with a jolt on Sunday as prices spiked and the exchange's website went down from heavy traffic.

The bitcoin contract expiring in January started trading at $15,000 at 6pm EST and spiked to $16,660 within the first six minutes of trading, an 11% surge. Prices later dropped, then rebounded, and the contract was recently trading at $16,900.

The exchange halted trading for two minutes at 8.31pm due to volatility, said a spokeswoman for the exchange operator, Cboe Global Markets. Cboe can impose such halts after a 10% price swing.

The futures were trading at a premium to the spot price of bitcoin, which was $15,937.05 around 8.45pm, according to CoinDesk. The premium suggests that futures traders believe the price of bitcoin will be higher when the contract expires, on Jan. 17, than where bitcoin is trading today.

Still, volumes were muted, with about 1,000 bitcoin futures contracts changing hands in the first three hours.

Aux Etats-Unis, Wall Streeta clôturé en nette hausse vendredi, les indices Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) et S&P 500 finissant à de nouveaux sommets historiques après la publication du rapport mensuel sur l'emploi. Le DJIA a gagné 0,49%, à 24.328,95 points, l'indice élargi S&P 500 a progressé de 0,55%, à 2.651,50 points, et le Nasdaq Composite s'est adjugé 0,40%, à 6.840,08 points.

Buying built into some Asian stock markets, notably in Hong Kong and Shenzhen. The Hang Seng was recently up 0.6%, helped by 2% gains in Cnooc and HSBC, while the Shenzhen Composite climbed 1%.

Japan finally perked up after the lunch break there. The Nikkei was recently up 0.3%, after barely rising in the morning despite fresh weakness in the yen. Indexes in Australia and Korea were up less than 0.1% by early afternoon.

A stronger-than-expected pickup in U.S. hiring helped lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 to weekly gains on Friday, capping a choppy streak for the stock market. The Dow industrials rose 117.68 points, or 0.5%, to 24329.16. The S&P 500 added 0.6% and Nasdaq gained 0.4%.

Forex: 

===== 

Sterling has drifted lower in Asia after last Friday's Brexit negotiation breakthrough between the U.K. and EU but GBP/USD has scope to edge higher over the coming week.

The European Council is expected to formally conclude at Thursday's meeting that "sufficient progress" has been made in Brexit negotiations, give the EU and U.K. the green light to proceed with trade talks in the New Year.

The dollar is vulnerable this week to some modest upside risk if the U.S. Congress manages to agree on a unified tax bill. The House and Senate must reconcile their respective tax bill this week if they plan on getting a unified tax bill signed by the White House by year-end. From Friday, Congress will be in recess until Jan 3.

Going into year-end, Oanda's Stephen Innes calls the best trend trades stocks, rates and dollar-yen on prospects of U.S. infrastructure spending finally getting a push and the "Trump trade" being back on the radar.

Based on late New York levels, the dollar's 1.1% gain versus the yen is the biggest 2-day gain since mid-September. The greenback extended gains slightly Monday in Asia.

At 0450 GMT, USD/JPY was 113.61-62, EUR/USD was 1.1778-81 and GBP/USD was 1.3396-98.

Bonds: 

===== 

UBS has reiterated its view that the ECB will end its asset purchase program in September 2018. The central bank has said it will buy assets at a reduced pace of EUR30 billion per month on the announced time-horizon of January to September 2018. It will then "wind down the QE programme," UBS said.

However, there is a possibility that the ECB will opt for a moderate QE extension in 4Q 2018, it says. UBS expects the first ECB interest rate increase after the end of QE, most likely in July 2019.

U.S. government bonds slipped Friday after the monthly jobs report showed ongoing strength in the labor market but tepid wage growth.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note ticked up to 2.383% from 2.374% on Thursday, capping two consecutive weeks of yield gains.

Friday's jobs report likely doesn't change investors' expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates at its meeting next week, helping moderate swings in the market, said George Rusnak, co-head of global fixed-income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

Fed officials have signaled three interest-rate increases in 2018. Mr. Rusnak said he expects the central bank to raise rates this month, but the outlook for path of rate increases next year remains murkier.

Energy: 

====== 

Oil futures have started the week with a sizable early decline, reversing some of Friday's U.S. gains.

Prices were buoyed by official Chinese customs data released Friday, showing crude imports rose in November to over 9 million barrels a day, up from 7.3 million barrels a day the month before, according to Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Wealth Management.

Mr. Staunovo said crude prices, which had fallen to a three-week low on Wednesday, were also on the upswing because of "positive equity markets around the world."

Both WTI and Brent came into Monday's Asian session up five of the past seven days, moving back toward last month's 2 1/2-year highs. Fresh dollar gains could also put pressure on the crude market Monday.

At 0321 GMT, January WTI was down 0.5% at $57.08 a barrel while February Brent was down 0.4% at $63.12.

Metals: 

====== 

London spot-gold prices started the week on a steady note, trading in a very-tight range on slight dollar gains in Asia.

The scant moves are ahead of this week's central-bank meetings in the U.S., U.K. and Europe and following the biggest weekly drop in 7 months for gold futures last week.

At 0240 GMT, spot gold was up 8 cents at $1,248.58/troy ounce.

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December 11, 2017 00:00 ET (05:00 GMT)

Snapshot: 

======== 

Stocks seen higher; EUR/USD 1.1778-81; bund yield 0.309%; Brent crude $63/12; gold $1248.58

-Traders Bet on Bitcoin Climbing Higher, as New Futures Prices Jump

-EU Officials Warn of Risk to Global Trade

-China November Fiscal Spending Down 9.1% on Year

-Qatar, Britain Finalize Deal for 24 Jet Fighters

Watch For: Germany balance of payments; Italy retail sales; Lufthansa traffic figures

Outlook: 

======= 

German data dominates the start of next week, with a number of preliminary readings on purchasing managers' indices set for publication toward its end.

Tuesday sees a reading on German economic sentiment. The ZEW indicator on business expectations is predicted to dip slightly to 18.1, following November's disappointingly meager rise to 18.7, below economic forecasts. An assessment of Germany's economic situation, however, is predicted to inch 0.1 points higher.

Wednesday sees more German data, with final numbers on inflation in Europe's largest economy, which came last month. Figures on Eurozone industrial production for October are also set for release the same day.

Finally, on Thursday, expect a swathe of preliminary PMI numbers on services and manufacturing in December for France, Germany and the Eurozone, as well as a preliminary composite PMI figure for the Eurozone. Analysts forecast a slightly lesser pace of growth for all these measures, with only preliminary German services PMI seen rising over last month's data.

Thursday also see the release of policy statements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The ECB Bank is expected to leave its policies unchanged, but its economists are expected to raise their growth forecasts once again, a sign that 2018 may see the end of the ECB's bond-buying program launched in early 2015.

When raising rates last month, the BOE bank indicated further tightening would be gradual and limited, indicating just two more quarter-point increases by the end of 2020.

Headline News: 

============= 

The first U.S. bitcoin futures market kicked off with a jolt on Sunday as prices spiked and the exchange's website went down from heavy traffic.

The bitcoin contract expiring in January started trading at $15,000 at 6pm EST and spiked to $16,660 within the first six minutes of trading, an 11% surge. Prices later dropped, then rebounded, and the contract was recently trading at $16,900.

The exchange halted trading for two minutes at 8.31pm due to volatility, said a spokeswoman for the exchange operator, Cboe Global Markets. Cboe can impose such halts after a 10% price swing.

The futures were trading at a premium to the spot price of bitcoin, which was $15,937.05 around 8.45pm, according to CoinDesk. The premium suggests that futures traders believe the price of bitcoin will be higher when the contract expires, on Jan. 17, than where bitcoin is trading today.

Still, volumes were muted, with about 1,000 bitcoin futures contracts changing hands in the first three hours.

European Union officials said the U.S. is threatening to cripple global commerce by undermining the World Trade Organization, ahead of a gathering of officials from 164 countries on Sunday in Buenos Aires.

EU officials said the U.S. is pulling back from its position as the world's pre-eminent guardian of free trade, and that the resulting lack of broader ambition among WTO members will likely make the trade gathering unproductive.

"This is not going to be one of these occasions where we do dramatic steps forward," European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said Friday.

She expressed particular concern about the U.S. blocking appointments to a WTO appellate body that resolves trade disputes, which she said risks sabotaging the system of global trade.

U.S. officials have said the WTO needs to change to adapt to current challenges. The U.S. delegation will advocate for American interests and fair trade while also pushing for changes in the global trade system, administration officials said.

Stocks: 

====== 

European stocks should extend gains Monday, with DAX futures up 11 points and FTSE 100 futures 24 points higher.

Buying built into some Asian stock markets, notably in Hong Kong and Shenzhen. The Hang Seng was recently up 0.6%, helped by 2% gains in Cnooc and HSBC, while the Shenzhen Composite climbed 1%.

Japan finally perked up after the lunch break there. The Nikkei was recently up 0.3%, after barely rising in the morning despite fresh weakness in the yen. Indexes in Australia and Korea were up less than 0.1% by early afternoon.

A stronger-than-expected pickup in U.S. hiring helped lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 to weekly gains on Friday, capping a choppy streak for the stock market. The Dow industrials rose 117.68 points, or 0.5%, to 24329.16. The S&P 500 added 0.6% and Nasdaq gained 0.4%.

Corporate News: 

============== 

The government of Qatar and British weapons maker BAE Systems have finalized a multibillion deal for 24 combat jets, continuing a weapons buying spree by the Middle East country.

BAE Systems on Sunday said the two sides have entered a roughly GBP5 billion contract for the Eurofighter Typhoon combat jets, training and related items. Qatar and the British government this summer first disclosed the potential deal over the sale of two-dozen of the combat planes.

Forex: 

===== 

Sterling has drifted lower in Asia after last Friday's Brexit negotiation breakthrough between the U.K. and EU but GBP/USD has scope to edge higher over the coming week.

The European Council is expected to formally conclude at Thursday's meeting that "sufficient progress" has been made in Brexit negotiations, give the EU and U.K. the green light to proceed with trade talks in the New Year.

The dollar is vulnerable this week to some modest upside risk if the U.S. Congress manages to agree on a unified tax bill. The House and Senate must reconcile their respective tax bill this week if they plan on getting a unified tax bill signed by the White House by year-end. From Friday, Congress will be in recess until Jan 3.

Going into year-end, Oanda's Stephen Innes calls the best trend trades stocks, rates and dollar-yen on prospects of U.S. infrastructure spending finally getting a push and the "Trump trade" being back on the radar.

Based on late New York levels, the dollar's 1.1% gain versus the yen is the biggest 2-day gain since mid-September. The greenback extended gains slightly Monday in Asia.

At 0450 GMT, USD/JPY was 113.61-62, EUR/USD was 1.1778-81 and GBP/USD was 1.3396-98.

Bonds: 

===== 

UBS has reiterated its view that the ECB will end its asset purchase program in September 2018. The central bank has said it will buy assets at a reduced pace of EUR30 billion per month on the announced time-horizon of January to September 2018. It will then "wind down the QE programme," UBS said.

However, there is a possibility that the ECB will opt for a moderate QE extension in 4Q 2018, it says. UBS expects the first ECB interest rate increase after the end of QE, most likely in July 2019.

U.S. government bonds slipped Friday after the monthly jobs report showed ongoing strength in the labor market but tepid wage growth.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note ticked up to 2.383% from 2.374% on Thursday, capping two consecutive weeks of yield gains.

Friday's jobs report likely doesn't change investors' expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates at its meeting next week, helping moderate swings in the market, said George Rusnak, co-head of global fixed-income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

Fed officials have signaled three interest-rate increases in 2018. Mr. Rusnak said he expects the central bank to raise rates this month, but the outlook for path of rate increases next year remains murkier.

Energy: 

====== 

Oil futures have started the week with a sizable early decline, reversing some of Friday's U.S. gains.

Prices were buoyed by official Chinese customs data released Friday, showing crude imports rose in November to over 9 million barrels a day, up from 7.3 million barrels a day the month before, according to Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Wealth Management.

Mr. Staunovo said crude prices, which had fallen to a three-week low on Wednesday, were also on the upswing because of "positive equity markets around the world."

Both WTI and Brent came into Monday's Asian session up five of the past seven days, moving back toward last month's 2 1/2-year highs. Fresh dollar gains could also put pressure on the crude market Monday.

At 0321 GMT, January WTI was down 0.5% at $57.08 a barrel while February Brent was down 0.4% at $63.12.

Metals: 

====== 

London spot-gold prices started the week on a steady note, trading in a very-tight range on slight dollar gains in Asia.

The scant moves are ahead of this week's central-bank meetings in the U.S., U.K. and Europe and following the biggest weekly drop in 7 months for gold futures last week.

At 0240 GMT, spot gold was up 8 cents at $1,248.58/troy ounce.

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December 11, 2017 00:00 ET (05:00 GMT)

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December 11, 2017 01:01 ET (06:01 GMT)

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