Soybeans Lead Wavering Grain Futures Lower
25 June 2019 - 9:24PM
Dow Jones News
By Kirk Maltais
--Soybeans for July delivery reversed mild gains and fell 0.6%
to $9.03 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, as
traders became less convinced of any incoming supply tightness
despite planting delays.
--Wheat for September delivery fell 0.5% to $5.40 a bushel,
after rising as much as 0.8% earlier in the day.
--Corn for July delivery rose 0.2% to $4.47 1/2 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Reality Check: Soybean and wheat supplies aren't looking as bad
as was thought, tempering traders' price optimism. Even with
soybean planting still behind the five-year average, there is still
a "monstrous supply" of soybeans in the U.S., said Don Roose of
U.S. Commodities, making any talk of a shortage of the oilseed in
the U.S. premature. In Europe, a heat wave expected to damage the
wheat crop is showing signs of becoming less severe, deflating
hopes of expanding markets for U.S. grain.
Planting Lag: Only 85% of U.S. soybean acres have been planted,
according to the USDA's latest crop progress report. This is below
estimates from traders, who predicted 87%-88%, and also below the
five-year average of 97%. Particularly lagging behind is Ohio,
which has planted only 65% of its soybean acres for the year, down
from an average of 98%. Missouri and Michigan are also below 70%
planted for soybeans.
INSIGHT
Talking the Talk: Soybeans traders are concerned that President
Trump and Chinese President Xi's meeting this week will only
restart trade talks, instead of leading to a lasting agreement.
"That implies sinking demand for U.S. soybeans for another year,
which diminishes the importance for a large U.S. soybean crop,"
AgResource said. China is the world's largest soybean importer,
while the U.S. vies with Brazil for the spot of top producer of the
oilseed.
Conditions Deteriorate: Corn in good or excellent condition
totaled 56% this week, down from 59% last week and down from 77% at
this point last year, according to the USDA crop report. This week
was also the first week for 2019 soybean conditions to be assessed,
with 54% being rated good or excellent, versus 73% last year.
Spring wheat conditions deteriorated by only two percentage points,
down to 75% at good or excellent. Winter wheat also slipped
slightly, dropping to 61% good or excellent, down from 64% last
week. The figures indicate some level of weather damage to
crops.
AHEAD
--General Mills Inc. will release its latest quarterly earnings
report before the stock market opens Wednesday.
--The EIA releases its weekly update on ethanol production and
inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--Conagra Brands will release its latest quarterly earnings
report before the market opens Thursday.
--The USDA will release its latest weekly export sales numbers
at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2019 16:09 ET (20:09 GMT)
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