II's haven't been selling in volume, only Schroders have trimmed a small amount, others been buying.IMO it's just PI's selling following the appointment of the new CEO and his decision to park ReZorce. |
It should be baked in, but I recommend building your own model for the different business lines to flex some assumptions. I'd suggest that it's not
All I'm saying is that the smart institutional money are probably running their own models, and the price decline here is more than just market malaise. I think the institutional owners think that the 2025 revenue expectations are too high and that a reworking of 2025 revenues (and possibly/probably thus profits) may be on the cards over the next 6 months
Anyway who knows! I'm just watching. Good to be aware of the bear arguments here, which I think this is what they are right now.
Whenever I am more cautious on a stock I hope my interpretation is wrong, and I hope I am wrong on my modelling here too : ) |
Fair enough if that's your interpretation, brokers (only two cover the stock Peel Hunt their house broker and Singers) consensus is for only 2.7% growth in revenue for FY25, but more importantly they forecast +32% growth in earnings. Which I assume will be that the previous £2.8m or so annual losses associated with ReZorce will now be a positive headwind on earnings compared to FY24.Consensus FY25 eps is 29.3p, Singers have 30.7p so Peel Hunt must have circa 28.1p which is still +27% to FY24. Sales is vanity, profit is sanity. |
 "Exceptional" means what it says on the tin. 2024 was an exception (positively). Which to me slam dunk implies lower in 2025, and potentially quite sizeably given just how strong the boost in 2024 was
It says exceptional level, not exceptional growth rate.
Stonks - everything you are quoting is known by the company and should b baked into the current broker forecasts for 2025 - whilst forecasts exist they should be expected to factors in everything like that. The fact they are showing higher expected profits rather than lower is a positive sign taht overall they think they can cope despite those comments.
So whilst agreeing that an exceptional period MAY cause headwinds that doesnt mean that they cant still deliver as good if not better figures despite that fact.
I wont argue with anyone who says i think broker forecasts are too high and wants to sit on the sidelines throwing rotten tomatoes - but from what i have seen from this company they simply provide with best estimates so i for one am not presuming they will fail to deliver . I would be slightly more worried perhaps about inflationary pressures and things like NI and rates increases - certainly stuff is not trending well in that regard - so if times are tough and costs going up faster than expected then perhaps ....
I dont know for sure but i seem to recollect someone saying they might have been production limited ? does anyone know if that is the case - eg if they are expecting to replace that (exceptional) income with other income sources.
anyway hopefully you would agree that if they were expecting drop off in the numbers that should most certainly be in the current forecasts for 2025 and at present they are still ok with expected increase in sales and profits (lower blue sky losses should help) |
"Exceptional" means what it says on the tin. 2024 was an exception (positively). Which to me slam dunk implies lower in 2025, and potentially quite sizeably given just how strong the boost in 2024 was
It says exceptional level, not exceptional growth rate. |
"As described in the interim results, we expect the exceptional level of demand in Footwear to return to normalised patterns during 2025. "a.k.a expect the big revenue boost this year to turn into a headwind"Return to normalised patterns does not mean a headwind or lower than forecasts for FY25 IMO. |
the problem with ztf is that the company is openly telling you that footwear is going to have a challenging 2025 because the 2024 performance is getting boosted by restocking.
"Q3 Footwear revenue, which represented 48% of sales in the period (Q3 2023: 32%), was higher than anticipated as ongoing supply chain re-configuration at the Group's largest customer led to a continuation of elevated short-term demand for our foams. As described in the interim results, we expect the exceptional level of demand in Footwear to return to normalised patterns during 2025. "
a.k.a expect the big revenue boost this year to turn into a headwind
And if that happens, the consensus forecasts out there for revenue growth simply look too high to me.
Which means we swing from a good 2024 to a potential warning in 2025
That in my eyes is why the stock is under pressure and is a value trap for at least the next 6 months |
Nice timing |
Bought some ZTF yesterday.
Looking cheap at these levels.
Looks oversold.
P. |
Should have pulled the trigger yesterday! |
Well, bought another 500 shares .. seems good value to me but wtfdik |
Cheers babs I don't subscribe but link is here hTTps://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/seize-on-a-slip-in-zotefoams-which-has-created-a-compelling-buying-opportunity |
Tipped today in shares mag. |
Singers have 30.7p eps for FY25, so even on a historical low rating of 12x there's still nearly 30% upside. Over the past 5 years the PE has been as high as 46x (during 2021).Either I'm missing something or the market has got this one wrong. |
Been in a downtrend ever since David Stirling stepped down last May.
indeedy - pretty obvious one too :) |
Been in a downtrend ever since David Stirling stepped down last May. |
Getting clobbered although no instis selling. New CEO been in place long enough now, needs to steady the ship |
still falling like a stone this one. Not one of my wisest purchases. I thought we had seen the lows on the last RNS ..doh ! |
It's certainly odd for it fall today - as far as o know it's mainly a dollar earner although it may all be hedged |
Crazy fall since hitting its 52 week high, dropped over 50%. Time to buy?. |
Hmm exclusive agreement volume requirements extended last year out to 2029
The foam is a significant differentiator for Nike over competitors not sure hold the purse strings reflects the power balance here |
Apple and Imagination technologies worth recalling from 2017 - the perils of an outsized customer with scale who contributes to vast majority of revenues.
Nike holds the purse strings. |
Our esteemed government’s new packaging tax is a game changer. Not only will manufacturers be falling over themselves to resume life-support to Rezorce, but the growth to the economy will be tremendous.
… sorry, must go, nice men in white coats want me to go with them… |
All Nike exclusive agreement |
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