Zinnwald Lithium Share Discussion Threads

[dmitribollokov] 20/1/2022 10:12

Would be really nice to break this resistance, i can see a couple of reverse H&S on different time frames. 20.25 21.25 seems to be the levels we need to break and hold.

[jbravo2] 20/1/2022 09:55

@cb Maybe.
Or possibly a Chinese co. They’ve set the pace recently on lithium.

[leas1] 20/1/2022 09:55

Cheadle
Vulcan and Nobian have a MoU to develop a production plant in Germany to supply European car manufacturers. Of course there will always be merger/takeover rumours with Junior miners. However, there is no denying that ZNWD and EMH resource is in the perfect geographical position for them to exploit.

[cbeadle] 20/1/2022 09:42

EMH is also largely being ignored here, a big discount to the asx price. It’s really amazing how little both ZNWD and EMH have moved considering the strong Lithium price and projected demand. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the two companies merge, or someone like Tesla take a big stake

[leas1] 20/1/2022 09:37

The same resource split by a border is currently being ignored by the market. However, it does support any opinion for an investment here. Normally takes a few trading days for analysts to absorb the information.

[jbravo2] 20/1/2022 09:30

Nibbled lots this morning
Seems like it should move to the 25-30p range what with the price of lithium, read across to other co’s and impending news

[tomboyb] 20/1/2022 07:24

Morning -

I nibbled a few yesterday -

Adding when I can -

[dmitribollokov] 20/1/2022 07:22

EMH up hugely over night in aus. Closed around 89.5p equivalent. ZNWD should be moving up with, it’s the same ore body…

[scrutable] 19/1/2022 23:16

flyfisher

I am most grateful to you for the introduction to MasterInvestor. I am already a fan of Jim Mellon on account of his book Moo's Law which gave me a wondrous overview of the nascent food and commodity cell culture business.I have done well from an investment in Agronomics (ANIC) the investment vehicle he set up to exploit that futuristic world.

The whole article on the valuation of small miners that you pointed us to was heavy going but there was plenty to glean from it without becoming able to deploy the techniques it sets out. Thanks again.

[dmitribollokov] 19/1/2022 20:52

PS I really couldn’t care less about NPVs that were made a few years ago when the game has completely changed on the underlying asset - As EMH showed today. The new EMH NPV figures today used ridiculously conservative figures for Li price and still upped the NPV by 75%.

This isn’t an iron ore mine in 2006. So yeah sure, look at NPVs, but then look at when they were estimated, look at the asset they are based on and look at that asset’s position in its respective commodity cycle. Oh - and then and a premium or discount based on geography and jurisdiction.

Good Luck.

[dmitribollokov] 19/1/2022 20:38

“ ZNWD raised money at a discount through a share issue recently at 15.5p.

That is what the market considered as value at that point in time.”

No that is what henry maxey determined is what he needed/could get to put up to £4m new money in. The day of the capital raise, the share price traded between 21-22p, that is what the market determined the value was.

Still, nice to see some healthy debate on the board and a constructive holder that isn’t just full of the rose-tints. All good.

[flyfisher] 19/1/2022 18:49

SCRUTABLE, What is wrong with your reasoning. It flatters the situation, as most bulls of any stock do.

The market is aware of the current spot price and also the DFS assumed price. Quite what any offtake price they may negotiate is not yet known, however it is likely to be at a heavy discount to spot price.

Regarding the current demand, albemarle has recently brought back on stream a facility which was mothballed in 2018/19 and chilean operators are increasing production. These will go some way towards balancing the supply / demand situation, but i guess it will predominantly go to china.

However the EMH/ZNWD deposit is geographically well positioned to supply europe, as are many others. Some of which have offtake agreements.

I don't know who the winners and loosers will be in the race to profitable operations and for now the market values ZNWD at 19.75p, and that is what it is worth.

FWIW, I am currently an observer, having sold 6 x 50k blocks a week ago.

This is worth a read to keep a perspective on npv.



Good luck.

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 17:30

It would be no surprise if ZNWD revised the NPV in that way in which case we could see something similar to the EMH announcement at some point...



If that hadn't been accompanied by a modest EMH placing (at a premium) then I think the price there would have risen much more in response. We've just had a placing here so a similar revision of NPV for ZNWD could see a much more significant reaction especially from these levels.

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 13:26

At that time Maxey was willing to significantly increase his holding at that price as he knew it was a bargain.

On the FED it has limited jurisdiction and didn't stop Ganfeng taking over BCN for example.

On the Zinnwald project from the link posted above ...

"The project is located 35 kms from Dresden in the heart of the European chemical and automotive industries on the border with the Czech Republic in an historic granite hosted Sn/W/Li belt. This developed area has historically been mined for tin, tungsten and lithium over the past 400 years and has good infrastructure, services, facilities, and access roads. Power and water supply are guaranteed from existing regional networks."

[flyfisher] 19/1/2022 13:25

No shortage on these bb's of investors telling that the stock is worth more.

ZNWD raised money at a discount through a share issue recently at 15.5p.

That is what the market considered as value at that point in time.

[leas1] 19/1/2022 13:12

Both Canada and the US have a critical mineral strategy. The Fed have already announced a policy to ensure the Chinese do not have a monopoly on battery manufacture.
Already there are concerns in the so called ‘golden triangle’ in South America on extraction. This is another factor in the price increase of Li.
I would hope that ZNWD take us all the way to production but as we know ‘money talks’. Personally, the biggest shareholder value would be if we could generate revenue but longer we can stay independent the value of our assets will continue to rise. Our MC is certainly no indication of our true value.

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 12:57

Possibly as the market caps might be closer by then given that ZNWD are ahead on that. However consolidation would enabling pooling of resources which could lead to production sooner for a combined company.

[jbravo2] 19/1/2022 12:53

“if a 'merger' of the two did occur the most likely scenario would seem to be be a takeover of ZNWD by EMH.”

More likely the first one into production buys the other IMO

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 12:42

On that last point considering the market caps

£129m+£7.6m placing (EMH) vs £58m (ZNWD)

if a 'merger' of the two did occur the most likely scenario would seem to be be a takeover by EMH of ZNWD.

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 12:19

I would think that is quite likely unless either of them are snapped up first - there are not many specialist Li companies left on the LSE now with BCN having gone. I doubt that the Germans would like to see ZNWD go the same way though - i.e. to the Chinese.

[flyfisher] 19/1/2022 12:17

Is the ultimate solution for this cross border resource for EMH and ZNWD to combine.

Why incur the capex of two operators mining the same resource, a short distance apart?

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 12:16

There might be some hiccups along the way but I'm sure it will go ahead as well for the reasons I've mentioned and ZNWD have already progressed further than EMH. Just a waiting game.

[leas1] 19/1/2022 12:08

bounty
You are reading too deeply into my posts. I do think production from our mine will be given the go ahead but I don’t see it as ‘rubber stamping’ exercise. If I thought otherwise then I wouldn’t be invested here.

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 12:05

I would think it's quite likely that ZNWD may also revise their DFS given the huge increase in the price of Li since an NPV of $428m was determined in 2019. The market cap is only ~£58m.