Zinnwald Lithium Share Discussion Threads

[flyfisher] 19/1/2022 18:49

SCRUTABLE, What is wrong with your reasoning. It flatters the situation, as most bulls of any stock do.

The market is aware of the current spot price and also the DFS assumed price. Quite what any offtake price they may negotiate is not yet known, however it is likely to be at a heavy discount to spot price.

Regarding the current demand, albemarle has recently brought back on stream a facility which was mothballed in 2018/19 and chilean operators are increasing production. These will go some way towards balancing the supply / demand situation, but i guess it will predominantly go to china.

However the EMH/ZNWD deposit is geographically well positioned to supply europe, as are many others. Some of which have offtake agreements.

I don't know who the winners and loosers will be in the race to profitable operations and for now the market values ZNWD at 19.75p, and that is what it is worth.

FWIW, I am currently an observer, having sold 6 x 50k blocks a week ago.

This is worth a read to keep a perspective on npv.



Good luck.

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 17:30

It would be no surprise if ZNWD revised the NPV in that way in which case we could see something similar to the EMH announcement at some point...



If that hadn't been accompanied by a modest EMH placing (at a premium) then I think the price there would have risen much more in response. We've just had a placing here so a similar revision of NPV for ZNWD could see a much more significant reaction especially from these levels.

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 13:26

At that time Maxey was willing to significantly increase his holding at that price as he knew it was a bargain.

On the FED it has limited jurisdiction and didn't stop Ganfeng taking over BCN for example.

On the Zinnwald project from the link posted above ...

"The project is located 35 kms from Dresden in the heart of the European chemical and automotive industries on the border with the Czech Republic in an historic granite hosted Sn/W/Li belt. This developed area has historically been mined for tin, tungsten and lithium over the past 400 years and has good infrastructure, services, facilities, and access roads. Power and water supply are guaranteed from existing regional networks."

[flyfisher] 19/1/2022 13:25

No shortage on these bb's of investors telling that the stock is worth more.

ZNWD raised money at a discount through a share issue recently at 15.5p.

That is what the market considered as value at that point in time.

[leas1] 19/1/2022 13:12

Both Canada and the US have a critical mineral strategy. The Fed have already announced a policy to ensure the Chinese do not have a monopoly on battery manufacture.
Already there are concerns in the so called ‘golden triangle’ in South America on extraction. This is another factor in the price increase of Li.
I would hope that ZNWD take us all the way to production but as we know ‘money talks’. Personally, the biggest shareholder value would be if we could generate revenue but longer we can stay independent the value of our assets will continue to rise. Our MC is certainly no indication of our true value.

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 12:57

Possibly as the market caps might be closer by then given that ZNWD are ahead on that. However consolidation would enabling pooling of resources which could lead to production sooner for a combined company.

[jbravo2] 19/1/2022 12:53

“if a 'merger' of the two did occur the most likely scenario would seem to be be a takeover of ZNWD by EMH.”

More likely the first one into production buys the other IMO

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 12:42

On that last point considering the market caps

£129m+£7.6m placing (EMH) vs £58m (ZNWD)

if a 'merger' of the two did occur the most likely scenario would seem to be be a takeover by EMH of ZNWD.

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 12:19

I would think that is quite likely unless either of them are snapped up first - there are not many specialist Li companies left on the LSE now with BCN having gone. I doubt that the Germans would like to see ZNWD go the same way though - i.e. to the Chinese.

[flyfisher] 19/1/2022 12:17

Is the ultimate solution for this cross border resource for EMH and ZNWD to combine.

Why incur the capex of two operators mining the same resource, a short distance apart?

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 12:16

There might be some hiccups along the way but I'm sure it will go ahead as well for the reasons I've mentioned and ZNWD have already progressed further than EMH. Just a waiting game.

[leas1] 19/1/2022 12:08

bounty
You are reading too deeply into my posts. I do think production from our mine will be given the go ahead but I don’t see it as ‘rubber stamping’ exercise. If I thought otherwise then I wouldn’t be invested here.

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 12:05

I would think it's quite likely that ZNWD may also revise their DFS given the huge increase in the price of Li since an NPV of $428m was determined in 2019. The market cap is only ~£58m.

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 11:58

With the forecast shortage of Li and the increasing German requirement given their increasing EV production I don't think they will be ignoring a significant resource on their doorstep where mining has taken place in the past meaning significant infrastructure is already in place.

[leas1] 19/1/2022 11:52

bounty
Totally agree but that won’t make any application easier. Attitudes towards the environment is completely different in comparison to its neighbour.
You would have thought Serbia would be an easy place to progress a Li mine but not the case.
Germany have always looked elsewhere for their industrial supplies. Not that I think they are going to invade China.

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 11:30

The Germans will have a more pressing need for Li than the Czechs given their car production industry.

[leas1] 19/1/2022 11:16

jbravo
My point is that based on the current and expected rise in the price of Li any pfs by any company with a Li asset looks a given. imo the method will not necessarily be on cost efficiency of extraction but environmental impact. I may be wrong but I think the Germans will have stricter regulations in place. Not that I think it won't be achieved by the same method.

[jbravo2] 19/1/2022 10:48

Well there’s a bit more significance than that.
It is the same body of resource simply split by the national border of the countries. It is reasonable to assume similar treatment methods/mining methods may be used in part

[leas1] 19/1/2022 10:31

Welcome mustau. No direct significance other than making the case for production even stronger. The continued rising value of Li largely driven by demand v supply is making current valuations very low.
For example Allkem in Australia have predicted a rise in prices in the first half of this year to be up to 80%. Whether invested here or otherwise, this sector is a great opportunity. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

[mustau] 19/1/2022 09:51

newbie here - what is the significance of the EMH pfs here??

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 09:48

The EMH revised PFS RNS is out...

PFS UPDATE DELIVERS OUTSTANDING RESULTS
75% INCREASE IN CINOVEC NPV TO US$1.94B
16% INCREASE IN PRODUCTION TO 29,386TPA

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 08:07

Yes page 2 wasn't obvious lol...

Page 2:

REQUEST FOR TRADING HALT – EUROPEAN METALS HOLDINGS LIMITED
In accordance with ASX Listing Rule 17.1, European Metals Holdings Limited (Company) requests an immediate halt in the trading of its securities (Halt) pending the release of an announcement relating to an update on the PFS for the Cinovec Project.
The Company requests that the Halt end on the earlier of the commencement of normal trading on Friday, 21 January 2022 or when the anticipated announcement referred to above is released to the market.
The Company is not aware of any reason why the Halt should not be granted, nor of any other information necessary to inform the market about the Halt.
Should you have any queries or require clarification please call me on 0417 945 049. Authorised for release by:
Dennis Wilkins Company Secretary
EUROPEAN METALS HOLDINGS LTD

[bountyhunter] 19/1/2022 08:05

Interesting, a positive revision incorporating the much higher current Li price could have a carry over effect for ZNWD.