hint of a bottom forming? |
could the weakness in share price being caused by concerns about the accelerating depreciation of EV cars. Google search suggests that depreciation (subject to model) very much faster than petrol equivalent.
Also as significant pressure on Social Security budgets in both UK & EU a concern that customer funding will be squeezed.
Possible result lower margins and thus lower profits.
Possible upside forecast reduction in interest rates.
Overall result pressure on margins and profits - (imo) One to watch at the moment. |
ZIGUP (LSE:ZIG) announces the selection of Rachel Coulson as Chief Financial Officer ("CFO"). This follows the resignation in October 2024 of Philip Vincent who will leave his role as a Director of the Company and Chief Financial Officer on 28 March 2025. |
my gut feeling the steam will run out on pure electric cars and the market will move to green hydrogen electric
i dont think hydrogen has gained enough traction (something would need to improve ref storage perhaps?)
electric does have the momentum - albeit i suspect it may be that the growth in the next 2-5 is not perhaps as quick as some would expect ot like - i think the infrastructure needs to catch up a bit to cover the futuren uplift in electric car numbers |
interesting stuff...
my gut feeling the steam will run out on pure electric cars and the market will move to green hydrogen electric (no waiting to charge up).... Every year green hydrogen is getting cheaper and cheaper to make relative to gas/oil |
Interesting to see your post thanks. I couldn't find an obvious gremlin !
I've actually started a few businesses myself and mix with others who have. None of us really cared about money and still don't except as a by-product of creating something new.
As far as we are concerned, the wealthy are welcome to leave if they pay their 'dues'. As you say there is always someone on the slippery corporate ladder waiting to take over the many very senior jobs that are just maintaining a business, not growing it.
I won't start on the posh houses left vacant to appreciate in value, while they 'relocate' to Dubai!
This share does seem to have been overly punished (current general market partly perhaps). I've had a few - couldn't resist. |
 ref nil cost options - i think these can sometimes turn up in a batch but may cover multiple years. Hopefully the next annual report will have full details - there may be info in prior annual reports and its good question for company ref detail. The shares in issue here has been very under control - so ik have no evidence to suggest this is repeat activity each year to syphon off part of the business. Operationally mangement have delivered good numbers so i will tolerate a chunky payout.
O/t rant but there’s a mantra about wealthy people leaving the UK being bad for our economic growth because they are wealth creators in business. Maybe me but that smells of BS.
i think the wealthy create their own press to try and keep their tax down - the reality is hard working people running business wil be replaced if they leave - so its nonsense to suggest that we need ANY of these people. The middle ground here is being fair ref taxes - as a whole these people hatee paying higher rate tax that normal people pay without making too much fuss.
I think there is a middle ground to be had here - at present though it is too easy for people to leave and then later get the trappings by coming back - in that regard america perhaps has it right that if you are us citizen you pay some taxes.
At minimum if peope have earned from the uk that should be taxed - so if thye leave they should normally pay soem sort of exit charge if they want the trappings.
eg at present company directors can simply relocate to dubai and get all their dividends tax free - thats uk plc stupidity for not levying some extra tax in that direction so fair taxes are being paid from company that is making its profit from uk individuals
google et al have a complete free lunch at present
Anyway, just wondering if there is some inherent risk here that I haven’t seen, that has led to such a price drop, because the business itself seems quite stable?
Zlich that i am aware of.
Obviously the easy money they were making ref excessively high van valuations has gone.
The only slight worry is that if vans cost more - they need to borrow more and that could bring margins under pressure - in theory though if they are managing tescos van flee - whoever tesco pay they will have to pay more.
debt is high and climbing but as % of fleet value its well under control.
Is it as simple as possible inflation in vehicle prices, combined with lower margins on sales in a more competitive market, plus a bit of disruption by EV’s.
thats posible issues but hoppefully all neutral for now - the main reason for lower profits imho is solely due to unwinding of fluff in van prices - they also had to reduce depreciation rate in prior years - that pushed up charge in later years so lfl comparisons are skewed.
Ref electric vehciles - move to electric could cause a big issue but everyone is in the same boat - i think comnpanies are more likley to subcontract fleet out fro electric rather than less likely.
Perhaps main danger with electric is that manufacturers lease direct and cut out supply chain - like Tesla.
in worst case scenario they do at leats have decent ntav as soem sort of backup
I notice that % cost of sales went up and admin was about 10mln more. Which is a bit of a squeeze
they are increasing fleet and doing well generally - admin will go up.
I would like to think 2027 will be year when there are no tailwinds and larger fleet will deliver rebound.
Who knows though - there is scope for them to be squeezed here - to me they seem on the ball enough to know they shoudl only be taking on busines if it make a reaosnable margin |
Just having a look at this for dividend yield plus some sort of recovery.
I don’t recall seeing so many nil cost options very often (last year and recently) - running into £100,000’s worth. Slight worry as the share price has gone nowhere overall over last few years, so what are they being rewarded for? Just keeping things trotting along? I know governance favours “kerching̶1; for nothing, but have I missed something?
O/t rant but there’s a mantra about wealthy people leaving the UK being bad for our economic growth because they are wealth creators in business. Maybe me but that smells of BS.
Anyway, just wondering if there is some inherent risk here that I haven’t seen, that has led to such a price drop, because the business itself seems quite stable?
Is it as simple as possible inflation in vehicle prices, combined with lower margins on sales in a more competitive market, plus a bit of disruption by EV’s.
Or just that reported revenue is rising and profit falling and thats the first time its happened for years. Not “escaped”; by underlying figures perhaps.
I notice that % cost of sales went up and admin was about 10mln more. Which is a bit of a squeeze |
I dont see any reason why Zigup cant simply follow the crowd with regard to vehicle types - all their vehicles earn a crust. so if the market does or doesnt pivot towards electric they should be able to take neutral stance. I dont think anything would happen overnight to the extent their fleet values would be expected to plummet.
The more they are moving towards larger contract customers and serving their fleet needs the more they are providing a necessary service to their customers - so the vehicle choice really probably depends specifically on what their customer wants. |
At some point there was a call that their diesel vehicles would have minor residual value due to the 'electric revolution'.
That may scare off some investors but that's unbased. Electric will be only a fraction of the total vehicles on the street for the near and mid future.
Used vehicle marker has been volatile in recent years, so the stock has been. I wish I had more funds to top up on weakness. |
Personally i have no worries about the ability to sustain the dividend its only half of earnings being made
Thats not to say thney might not choose to moderate dividend eg if debt was rising and they needed more fleet or interets rates started increasing and they wanted to eat into debt.
They do seem bordering on uber confident ref where they are trending in that regard i kinda trust that managment here based on what i have seen so far.
Note they have the spare nav in the fleet anyway - so i suspect rather than chopping dividend if anything was to give it would probably be them stopping fleet expansion that would come first and that would provide the necessary cashflow to keep everything tidy.
The only slight worry here would be if they are needing to invest more in their fleet to earn the same level of profits - eg higher van prices. they are decently enough profitable at present that i see this as low risk despite the debt.
Hey ho perhaps i have my rose tinted specs on with this one. |
Alotto - I have no doubts about the company's viability or its ability to generate shedloads of cash and pay cracking dividends. It's whether we're going to carry on being the recipients of those dividends past the next one that worries me. I have no wish to sell my shares willingly.
As you say - we shall see. |
We will see. Many cheap and good dividend players I bought are being trashed. Zigup os one of the many.
I believe it will take time to recover (subject to boe rates).
I'm much happier to hold a dividend payer rather that a growth stock that does not grow.. |
Good luck to all |
Yes it's an unfortunate price drop for those who've been holding for a while and that creates the opportunity for those who come in at £2.90 to capture the value play.
I guess that's just the way of it.
P. |
Exactly. I agree with you 100% that 400p is too far low. However, after another 4 months or so of the share price being trashed, if someone comes along and offers 400p (supported by the BOD) an awful lot of holders will accept. The long term holders get stuffed, everyone buying now makes a nice little bundle, and the BOD all get nice bonuses and carry on running the company or retire in style.
Capitalism - ain't it great.
BTW - anyone got any other explanations as to why the share price is where it is? You would think that at this level institutions would be falling over themselves to buy. |
Large, what makes you think this? You're quite specific saying it will be in 4 months. 400p seems too low for me, the dividend alone at this price will return the 30% premium in just 3 years. Why would you sell the company at 400p?
Edit:
Besides, just 4 months ago the price was 400p |
At the risk of sounding like a stuck record, this will bubble along in this range (if not lower) for the next 4 months or so before an offer comes in (highly recommended by the board, who will have been amply recompensed for said recommendation) at a price 30% above the price at the time of the offer.
I had thought that offer would be in the region of 400, but it looks like it may well be lower. |
I agree. My average is 340, I'll average down in the region of 280p |
I picked up some ZIG
Looking way oversold at these levels.
Good luck
P. |
yes I did think about that. I am retaining it on my watch list |
It would be great if you were to put it back in zigup and make it back to 435 |
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