What is the Market currently paying for (crude) gassy Mud per (42) liquid gallons ?
Presumably it's less than high quality Gas... |
So not applicable to Zephyr then. Although clearly your wisdom is an apotheosis. |
 arooster.
"Jaknife, great to see that you have time to post that you have no interest in Zephyr, and that your long term price is zero. The up and coming results will either prove that you are right, or you are a complete failure"
You've completely misunderstood my comment.
At best the results will provide a short-term boost for the share price and some hype for shareholders to rabidly salivate over. But beyond that there will be nothing.
As a business Zephyr has never made an economic profit and doesn't generate cash. On the contrary, the business consumes cash on a regular basis and hence needs regular capital injections.
And in the long run, the share price of all such companies tends to zero.
Alternatively put, in the words of Benjamin Graham:
"in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine"
which says exactly the same thing as: In the short term shares get hyped and shareholders rush to buy them but in the long run, when the company doesn't deliver profits or cash, then shareholders quietly walk away with their tail between their legs.
JakNife |
Jaknife, great to see that you have time to post that you have no interest in Zephyr, and that your long term price is zero. The up and coming results will either prove that you are right, or you are a complete failure |
2 Solaris,
That's how it works! Say my name three times into a mirror and I will actually appear there and then rather than just virtually!
JakNife |
No particular interest. It didn't take you long to reply to him! |
thatsmart1,
I have no particular interest in Zephyr at the moment. But, FWIW, my long term price target for Zephyr is zero. Because, in the long-run, that's the share price of all companies like Zephyr that don't make an economic profit and don't generate cash other than by issuing shares!
JakNife |
It seems JakNife is telling his chums to get rid of their shorts before they get burned to cinders, he now realises his 2p forecast is out of touch with reality. |
Thanks for that tima441. It seems as though 2000boed is the target, or 1000 boed to Zephyr. I would have thought we need more than that but then the next question is, do we have enough cash from non ops to drill without a partner? Originally, this we were told the non ops would fund drilling but does that still hold true?
We have tended to get very positive interviews but with much information missing from CH, this time we need a lot more facts and solid future plans, not for instance saying Saltwash will be drilled in 2024 but then nothing more. He needs to pin himself down to realistic production dates as well, not just saying winter 2024 for production, including 16-2.
We know this well must surely be productive so why not drip feed other news now instead of cramming everything into one large RNS when testing is over. News drives a share price, lack of it doesn't. |
That is my conclusion Tim....'sustained rates' as opposed to 'peak' |
I think there is little expectation of flow rates into such numbers. Sustained rates over 2000boed will be very good result and I'm hoping for 2500boed. Above that would be awesome - but not expected.
Much more important is the split oil/condensate/gas and long term recovery potential.
The original 36-2R with 130 ft lateral might have had a peak production of 2100boed but likely a rapid decline rate. What total recoverable? say 500k boe? Not sure if we saw any number?
But if the extended well has a peak prod of 2500boed for longer... with slower decline rates and a total recoverable of say 1.5m boe... then surely that's preferable?
We need to see as much detail as possible. Not just headline number. |
On the 6th Sept. 2024 RNS we had peak production rates of over 2100 boepd.
Since then we've given 50% of the well away for $7.5m to fund the horizontal drill.
Admittedly they were peak production rates but surely then we need production in excess of 4200 boepd else we might have aswell retained the 100% ownership ? |
Complicated question as there are several numbers that will matter
Initial flow rates will be the headline. Onshore tight oil flows from comparable wells generally consider 1500boed to be pretty good. But I think expectations here are 2000boed plus.
We then need to see choke size..constrained flows
Indications of peak flows and decline rates
Split of
Oil, oil/gas liquids, gas
Water cut (hopefully small)
Acidisation impact
Assessment of recoverable reserves
Etc etc.... but traders will probably focus on the headline flows only! |
Does anyone have an idea of what a good result is likely to look like in terms of boed bearing in mind about half will go the partner? |
Maybe another month before the share rises to 5 p area. |
I don’t want to tempt fate but there’s a certain “momentum̶1; now. Maybe that fibre optic cable has arrived early, someone shoved it down the hole, turned on and the screen showed massive reservoirs along the entire length of the lateral. lol. |
if they do unlock the Paradox it will be a massive move. And it is looking very good so far. Not long now. |
Well, whadyahknow, must have heard me). Up to 3.50 on Ask but still held back at 3.10 on the Bid. |
Some more ISA buys, at full value, I notice.
Pity, as this seems about to move up, why the spread being held as it is.
I am confident (ok, hopeful) though of seeing blue today. |
JakNife
It would be understandable if someone confused you with such movers and shakers as George Soros or Elon Musk ! |
jackthecat1,
"and the fact that HB are happy dealing with a small outfit like ZPHR,"
Zephyr are paying them money. That's how these things work in life - you pay money and firms do what you ask them. Nothing more complicated than that!
FWIW, this week alone I have partnered with Lloyds Bank, Microsoft, Nvidia, Dell, Barclays and Sainsbury's to name just a few of the money-spinning opportunities that I have created!
JakNife |
and the fact that HB are happy dealing with a small outfit like ZPHR, shoes how well ZPHR & CH are tohught of, and not least HB will be part of many more drills going forward in the PD and with ZPHR.
SLowly slowly gents, lets get it spot on. |
Haliburton were crucial in the acidisation too and so further involvement shows great strategy for the development of the Paradox. The team are showing clear intent and good judgement. |
1000% spot on and exactly right. |
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