Young & Co's Brewery Share Discussion Threads

[darrin1471] 06/9/2022 12:55

CPC is my favoured recovery in this sector. They have gone down with the rest but look to be a good recovery. CPC up 10% today but still below August low.
CPC 180p fair value pre covid, so after share dilution in 03/2020, that fair value, all things being equal would be around 120p. I would argue CPC are worth more post covid as they have opened 10% more pubs which are much larger than the rest of their estate. My CPC target price is 140p which is 135% above the current 60p.
Directors bought in the springtime between 98p and 118p
Debt as last reported as £2m with a NAV of £1.45 after the pub estate as recently revalued.
CPC intend to reinstate dividends at next interim results.

[darrin1471] 06/9/2022 12:28

I think Youngs will have had a great summer. The estate with plenty of outside space, much of which has been expanded, should have traded very well. Evenings outside when very hot and dry and warm since last update.

[darrin1471] 06/9/2022 11:43

EI. I am currently favouring going 55% CPC, 35% JDW and 10% MARS

CPC are not in my location yet but I have looked at every pub in their estate online.
Youngs are also not in my area so I looked at a selection of locations online.
JDW, MAB and MARS are national, so I know their type.

Youngs have a great estate and should trade well against higher energy costs as premium customers are unlikely to feel the energy crunch. In the years ahead IMO interest rate will rise and fixed mortgages will rise hurting Youngs more. This is currently protecting Youngs share price in comparison to the other pubs.
Youngs invested heavily in outdoor space during covid and this I believe is why they have bounced back better than the other pubs.

Allocating an investment soon is not about which is the best pub company but for me who is the most under valued.

[darrin1471] 06/9/2022 11:20

EI I spent a bit of the weekend looking more into Youngs CPC JDW MARS and MAB.
Have not bought yet and hoping today is just a bounce. US markets look like they have another leg down in them before the next round of UK pub results.

[1tx] 05/7/2022 09:20

Good trading update today;although we,esp holders of non voters,remain in my opinion in the bargain bin!

[buywell3] 21/6/2022 23:09

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[1tx] 06/6/2022 11:46

Yes mystery why IC never mention YNGN;this class still decent value at present price well below £12 NAV.I think deciding to concentrate on managed houses is the right way forward makes the business a bit simpler & I think it is difficult to make a decent return on capital with tenanted pubs when operating in an area where capital value of pubs is high.Interested to see Fullers results to end March this week whose shares are also depressed .I have been buying these also recently it remains to be seen if I am correct that they are good value.They retain a large number of tenanted pubs.

[wad collector] 29/5/2022 08:58

Tipped in IC this week following good results despite the pandemic. Well strictly speaking it was YNGA that it was tipping.

[essentialinvestor] 30/3/2022 09:30

On a 12 month basis it's the largest % performance differential I can remember.

[psychochopper] 30/3/2022 08:59

They are virtually identical shares; one has voting rights and the other does not.

I have not followed this in minute detail, but the spread between the two, absent of my missing some legal/structural detail, is a gift. And as others have said, is extremely wide, historically.

In fact, the spread appears to be 7x its mean of the past 5 years. (be careful of data mining!!)

[essentialinvestor] 30/3/2022 08:04

May be a low in yesterday on YNGN, significant 1 yr underperformance re YNGA,
expect some of that gap to close.

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2022 15:05

Spec, given the locations a premium offering should hold it's own, particularly given less competition.

I think it's either premium end or value end to be in, the squeezed middle not so much.

Agree on headwinds clearly , however you pay near 20 x for YNGA on the FY - 11 x for yngn appears a chasm of a valuation gap.

[spectoacc] 08/3/2022 14:53

I like that you look at these weird ones @EI :) I tend to forget all about them.

I'd be very concerned at pub prospects tho - utility bills for the pubs themselves, and also what the bills are going to do to consumer spending. This could last at least a year.

Downsize to JDW?

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2022 14:47

Current price looking attractive re YNGA?.

This about the largest % divergence I can remember, that's without checking.

[spectoacc] 20/10/2021 06:00

Not been in a Youngs pub, but the ones I've been in have felt completely normal - busy, no masks.

Downside to the share price is that the Covid stats are a long way from normal, and getting worse.

[wad collector] 19/10/2021 20:26

With the benefit of hindsight , it didn't happen. But it hasn't crashed since then either.

[philanderer] 12/3/2021 11:42

Church House: Young’s is primed for recovery

Young’s (YNGN) is ‘poised for a strong recovery’ after the brewing and pub group was forced to shut during a series of national lockdowns, says Fred Mahon, co-manager of Church House UK Equity Growth fund.

Shares in the London-focused pub company more than halved from a peak in the spring of 2019 to trough during the November 2020 lockdown.

Mahon, who runs the £80m fund with the Citywire AA-rated pair of James Mahon and Rory Campbell-Lamerton, opened a position in June 2020 after the initial sell-off and supported the November rights issue.

Mahon said Young’s was a ‘high-quality operator, with its prime London pub estate, the majority of which is freehold’.

‘We believe that the business is poised for a strong recovery when lockdown restrictions are eased as thirsty customers return to their favourite local pubs,’ he said.

‘We believe that [the company’s] like-for-like growth will look exceptionally strong once the pubs do reopen – even if summer 2021 is two-thirds what summer 2019 was, in terms of Young’s sales, that would represent triple levels seen in 2020.’

Shares in Young’s closed down 0.5%, or 5p, at 953p on Thursday.

[essentialinvestor] 16/11/2020 13:34

This usually tracks YNGA reasonably accurately.

Given the current YNGA share price, YNGN should be tradimg North of £7
Imv.

[essentialinvestor] 25/9/2020 07:45

Taken a small position, did not realise there was a YNGN board.

We are all aware of the backdrop and risks of further closures
so won't attempt to make a buy case currently.

[pugugly] 20/3/2020 19:47

Could be a right bloodbath here on Monday - All pubs MUST close
"UK PM Boris Johnson says bars, pubs, restaurants will close on Friday evening"

OK some value in the property but will be bleeding cash for a long time - No indication from the scientists as when it will be possible to once again go to pubs, restaurants, cinemas, theatres, leisure centres, and places of mass social gatherings such as Glastonbury -

[elmfield] 16/10/2017 14:50

Then you can shut up shop.
It is all over,
back to the early 70s we go.

[mw8156] 16/10/2017 13:41

seems it's been tipped in the Telegraph Questor as an IHT hedge that's always assuming the relief remains in place; might expect so if the Tories remain in power but what if that awful McDonnell class warfare-monger becomes Chancellor?

[elmfield] 16/10/2017 13:20

Not forgotten now!
More is the pity, in one sense.