Yamana Gold Share Discussion Threads

[avc0nway] 05/6/2009 11:09

Brief update to my 859 post of 2nd June, re XTA:- (I got out of a couple of parcels of XTA this morning at a touch under 770p. I think the trend (in mining/raw materials) is still in place and while I don't usually trade I see XTA is now comfortably ahead of its short-term MAs, so I fancy I might get back in with an increased holding, say 10% larger, in a week or ten days.

Got back in sooner than I'd anticipated @ 705p-710p on 4th June – it's nice when a plan works! The trap lies in believing you had a clever plan rather than merely a lucky one - who knew that the RIO/Chinalco deal collapse would come today to lift miners? I don't usually trade – I find I have better luck picking trends than picking trades, and almost no luck at all in timing.

Gold seems to have paused at the top of its trend for the moment, not a reversal, a pause I think, the story of the dollar's decline hasn't gone away. On miners I'm still unable to quite grasp why RRS outpaces YAU – is it that the known story seen as safer than the promised one to come?

Polaris, your post 862 with suggestions, thank you. Yes, I realise the greater liquidity and reduced spread offered by trading YAU in North America (as YRI-TSE or AUY- NYSE), but account set-up and dealing costs make it uneconomic for the parcel sizes I presently deal in, but I'm working on growing bigger – for this of course I have a plan, known as 'buy low, sell high'.

avc0nway

[polaris] 04/6/2009 14:11

Do not trade it on the LSE, trade it via the TSX listing where the spread is about a tenth the size and far more volume.

Paul

[dasv] 04/6/2009 14:03

TdWaterhouse stopped me out today... Big spread on this stock.

[avc0nway] 02/6/2009 12:05

Hello dasv,

Thanks for the chart. For what it's worth I got out of a couple of parcels of XTA this morning at a touch under 770p. I think the trend is still in place and while I don't usually trade I see they're now comfortably ahead of their short-term MAs, so I fancy I might get back in with an increased holding, say 10% larger, in a week or ten days.

Hold a gold miner in the mean-time? I might do but I don't see the pog as a safe enough short term story at the moment. And the flighty ones (NGL?) have already flown.

Sorry for being a touch off-topic on the YAU board.

avconway

[dasv] 02/6/2009 06:50

avconway - I too have XTA and had RRS but sold a while back - somewhat mystified by share price pricing in 2011 production without considering capex. YAU has been affected by copper story but this has turned north so expect more upside here too.

active P&F target is now 865 (excuse size of chart)

[avc0nway] 01/6/2009 19:11

Some quiet thinking aloud.
Don't you just love hindsight? I've continued lurking here, but used to post, and have just perused again my comments back around posts 520-530 in July of last year.

I am not currently in YAU, but I used to be, thinking it the soundest and most promising of those gold miners who were not tiddlers. I used to view it in parallel with RRS, and took the view that the YAU share price would outpace RRS, and thus I was, in '07 and '08, week by week, month by month, puzzled why it did not. "Never mind," I would console myself, "it's just that I am ahead of the market. The market will see value in time," I would say.

Has it? Will it? I see the YAU share price today is at the same level it was in the summer of 2007, having pretty much flat-lined or been under water in the interim 2-year period, whereas RRS is now at +260%. Can this difference in share price performance continue?

I sold YAU in the autumn of last year, and began buying RRS at the start of this year. {Mad Jack McMad I see had gone the other way six months earlier!} Reviewing things again I see that RRS/YAU have pretty much paced each other over this latest half-year, both up circa 90%. [Does this point to the market belatedly joining me in seeing more unrealized value in YAU than in RRS?]

Some weeks ago I thought RRS was looking 'toppy', and vulnerable to any pause or drop in the pog, so I moved across into XTA – I liked the mix of copper, coal and China's economic story. In the event this past month RRS hasn't topped or fallen but has continued upwards, but so too has XTA. [However, will today prove to be a milepost, marking the outperformance henceforth of base-metal and coal miners over gold? XTA has had a good day.]

I don't think the gold story has gone away – I have kept a couple of minors and some PLAA – and I remain ready to move from commodity miners to pm miners again [YAU?] when opportune. How will I know? I shall watch the pog, the economic news from China/Asia (and to a lesser extent the USA), and the USD money supply.

avconway

[kinbasket] 22/5/2009 14:08

Likewise, the only things I intend to hold in any size over the summer are the bigger gold miners. Smaller ones are more likely to get hammered if there is a general fall as they've had a fairly big run up over the last few months.

Contrast the performance between RRS and any of the juniors last year. They all sell the same stuff but there is clearly an advantage in size.

[ukgeorge] 22/5/2009 13:57

I wont be selling any Yamana in May or any other gold miner. but the general mkt does look as though the bounce has or is ending.





Yamana Gold's new Argentine mine Gualcamayo will start commercial operations in the second half of 2009 and then ramp up production to 200,000 ounces a year, the exploration chief for the company said on Thursday.

[kinbasket] 22/5/2009 13:49

I'm still here too. And very happy to be. Target of about a tenner. I'm a bit surprised by golds performance over the last week or so. I expected it to do very little or even pull back a bit over the summer.

Right now with the POG on the rise and markets treading water it looks to me like the rally in equity is over and we should see some fairly hefty downside from here over the summer.

Looks like a good "sell in May" year to me. It may be a "fill your boots in September" year also.

[ukgeorge] 22/5/2009 09:52

know the feeling, sat in a load of HOC at the moment in good profit but Fres has out performed by atleast 100% more.

RRS make me feel ill £15 a few months ago, hindsight

The chart looks good here for some catching up, I think the break out a few days ago was significant think £8 shouldn't be that difficult.

[mad jack mcmad] 22/5/2009 09:33

Still here, just sulking after selling RRS to but Yamana a couple of years ago. Still, catchup time soon....

[shutler] 21/5/2009 21:45

Yep very good to see. Volume is high again at over 25m on the US market about 3x the volume on Kinross...perhaps we're playing catch up on the fib levels?


free stock charts from www.advfn.com



free stock charts from www.advfn.com


Amazing how quiet this BB is, would expect more people to have this on their radar.

Yes really impressive move by gold and the shares again. I wonder if Jim Sinclair's (and others) supposed naked shorters have been caught well and truly with their pants down, would make for a powerful move if so.

[ukgeorge] 21/5/2009 19:54

well you are closer now (:

$10.48

which i make £6.61

gold also motoring $953 at present.

3rd atempt at getting through and holding $1000 in the next few weeks IMO.

[shutler] 21/5/2009 09:45

I stand corrected, just checked that fig again and you're right UKGeorge

[ukgeorge] 21/5/2009 08:28

bit less £6.33

[shutler] 20/5/2009 20:36

Good to see this moving at last. Volume is impressive (heading over 20m), given average around 16m daily on US market and in last few weeks has been averaging around 8m. Looks to me like it's still in a channel that has an upper range around $12.50.

Still think this is distinctly undervalued, but maybe that will change if gold keeps moving up over the next few months. Def. looks like a confirmed breakout on gold so hopefully lots more to come.

If it stays around $10 at close think it should be about 650p here tom.

[ukgeorge] 20/5/2009 16:27

Broken out on the US$ chart
looks postive to me

due a good rise these

any thoughts

[contrarian2investor] 20/5/2009 13:45

Hi dasv,
In answer to your point about copper, just have look at FCX. It as motored since copper bottomed, no pun intended. Eventually YAU will accelerate also.
===============================

Hi all,

Interesting article below.
Could have a negative impact to the US dollar but a positive impact on GOLD and gold stocks in general.

Yours with integrity c2i
===============================================================

Financial Times FT.com.
AmericasClose..Brazil and China eye plan to axe dollar
By Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo

Published: May 18 2009 18:24 | Last updated: May 18 2009 23:31

Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar, according to Brazil's central bank and aides to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil's president.

The move follows recent Chinese challenges to the status of the dollar as the world's leading international currency.

Mr Lula da Silva, who is visiting Beijing this week, and Hu Jintao, China's president, first discussed the idea of replacing the dollar with the renminbi and the real as trade currencies when they met at the G20 summit in London last month.

An official at Brazil's central bank stressed that talks were at an early stage. He also said that what was under discussion was not a currency swap of the kind China recently agreed with Argentina and which the US had agreed with several countries, including Brazil.

"Currency swaps are not necessarily trade related," the official said. "The funds can be drawn down for any use. What we are talking about now is Brazil paying for Chinese goods with reals and China paying for Brazilian goods with renminbi."

Henrique Meirelles and Zhou Xiaochuan, governors of the two countries' central banks, were expected to meet soon to discuss the matter, the official said.

Mr Zhou recently proposed replacing the US dollar as the world's leading currency with a new international reserve currency, possibly in the form of special drawing rights (SDRs), a unit of account used by the International Monetary Fund.

In an essay posted on the People's Bank of China's website, Mr Zhou said the goal would be to create a reserve currency "that is disconnected from individual nations".

In September, Brazil and Argentina signed an agreement under which importers and exporters in the two countries may make and receive payments in pesos and reals, although they may also continue to use the US dollar if they prefer.

An aide to Mr Lula da Silva on his visit to Beijing said the political will to enact a similar deal with China was clearly present. "Something that would have been unthinkable 10 years ago is a real possibility today," he said. "Strong currencies like the real and the renminbi are perfectly capable of being used as trade currencies, as is the case between Brazil and Argentina."

In what was interpreted as a sign of Chinese concern about the future of the dollar, the governor of China's central bank proposed in March that the US dollar be replaced as the world's de-facto reserve currency.

In an essay posted on the People's Bank of China's website, Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank's governor, said the goal would be to create a reserve currency "that is disconnected from individual nations" and modelled on the International Monetary Fund's special drawing rights, or SDRs.

Economists have argued that while the SDR plan is unfeasible now, bilateral deals between Beijing and its trading partners could act as pieces in a jigsaw designed to promote wider international use of the ­renminbi.

Any move to make the renminbi more acceptable for international trade, or to help establish it as a regional reserve currency in Asia, could enhance China's political clout around the world.


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[dasv] 18/5/2009 15:29

My thoughts on YAU currently are that it must be uncertainty over future for copper price which is holding back the share price Because I only have a small sum invested here I have not devoted as much time as I might into researching the current prospects for the company. Definitely no plans to sell though.

[contrarian2investor] 14/5/2009 19:17

dasv,

Glad to have another shrewd investor in my two core gold holdings.

With regards to the MSCI rebalancing, this can only be good news for YAU given the fact that it is up over 100% in the past 6 months. What are you thoughts?

c2i

[dasv] 14/5/2009 16:06

yep still here. smallish stake.

[contrarian2investor] 13/5/2009 12:32

dasv,

Are you a holder? I got & held these since the takeover of Northern Orion Resources. I intend to hold for the very long-term.

c2i

[ukgeorge] 06/5/2009 09:29

All looks good to me hopefully get Yau heading back in the right direction. locked in some good copper prices which looks to be a good move.