Yamana Gold Share Discussion Threads

[ukgeorge] 28/10/2008 13:43

Yamana Gold Finds New Low on Price-Target Cut; Freeport-McMoRan Gains on Downgrade
10/17/2008 1:15 PM
Keywords: AUY FCX
Analysts have set their sights on gold stocks today, with Yamana Gold (AUY: sentiment, chart, options) attracting a price-target cut and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX: sentiment, chart, options) getting hit with a downgrade. First up, brokers at Toronto Dominion slashed AUY's price target from $20 to $16 this morning. The move echoes similar downward revisions yesterday from GMP, RBC, National Bank, Macquarie, Cormark, and Scotia.

Why the glut of bearish brokerage notes? On Wednesday, Yamana Gold slashed its gold production targets for every year through 2011. While most analysts agree the lowered outlook is more realistic for AUY, they nonetheless trimmed their price targets to reflect more modest expectations.

Elsewhere, FCX was cut to "sector perform" from "outperform" by RBC. After falling to a new 52-week low of $30.03 yesterday, the stock has shrugged off today's downgrade to collect a 4.7% gain.

Meanwhile, AUY has rebounded from its own new annual low of $4.33, tapped earlier today, to gain 2%. As noted in today's Midday Market Update, gold futures are poised to close the session on their largest weekly loss in 2 months.

[bluelynx] 28/10/2008 12:30

I assume it's down just because it was down 7.2% in America.

[meljohn] 28/10/2008 10:40

Certainly should, Hectorp, but down 8%. Anybody got any idea what's going on?

[hectorp] 28/10/2008 09:34

This should be rising today..

[ukgeorge] 28/10/2008 08:15

Hectorp can we still be friends?

[hectorp] 27/10/2008 19:43

$$$ CAD ( Loony ) should start to rally here.
Also gold up tonight again.
Still too soon to buy gold shares in any quantity ( other than those held) but , well worth starting to buy some oversolds IMO

[ukgeorge] 27/10/2008 17:47

Top 20 Largest Consolidated Short Position Report
Please find below the Top 20 Largest Consolidated Short Position Report Highlights. The report is produced twice monthly, effective the 15th and the end of each month. The report below covers the 2-week period ending October 15, 2008.
TSX Datalinx collects this information on behalf of Market Regulation Services Inc. Participating Organizations are required to file this information pursuant to Universal Market Integrity Rule 10.10.

8th Largest Short position On yamana

Issue Name YAMANA GOLD INC. J
Symbol YRI
As of October 15 17,070,486
As of September 30 11,431,787
Net Change 5,638,699

[bluelynx] 27/10/2008 13:38

Good luck to you chris, I've no cash left :( ....Until pay day.

[chrismcglone] 27/10/2008 13:22

Scandelous i know Blue.

Trading in and out of BHP Billiton just now. Trying to claw some losses back.

[bluelynx] 27/10/2008 13:20

chris, shame on you.

[hectorp] 27/10/2008 12:11

90% falls, certainly over several stocks that should be the case given a 3 year view. However I strongly sense that gold and gold shares are at a floor already, most are down about 60-70%.

[chrismcglone] 27/10/2008 09:19

Hectorp, i am waiting to pounce on around 10 beaten down stocks. My logic is that whilst 1 or 2 may not recover, buying a basket of companies when they are down by 90% gives as good a risk/reward ratio as i am ever going to get in my lifetime.

[hectorp] 27/10/2008 09:10

Yes dynamic is settling in towards maybe buying some good beaten down gold stocks, but my main holding is aleady physical gold. We may! see the crunch time for the inflated world favourite, the YEN as their government ( according to Bloomberg) may be a bout to act (ie it sells yen and buys something else, unfortunately that will be USD but it could also be Euros sterling, gold etc) THAT action would turn the currency and gold situation around IMO>

Very close watch still.

[chrismcglone] 26/10/2008 23:26

This looks like it is going right back to £1 doesn't it

[nuueva] 26/10/2008 12:17

Medium-term the market has further to go down, with a new wave of hedge fund redemptions, default of a major US manufacturing corporation (Ford?), emerging crisis in the commercial property debt market (car loans, credit card debt, etc, etc), debt defaults by weaker emerging economies (and Iceland, and probably Hungary, etc). But if you look around on the web you will see convincing technical analysis suggesting that we are due a so called "suckers rally" in the next few weeks. Imagine that Obama wins the election, everyone so desperately wants to believe that everything will be OK, that a feel-good "the crisis can be contained bubble" may (repeat: may ) develop for a few short weeks. As stocks rally by say 20% during this time, the gold price will also rally (but will fail to break technical resistance on the upside, so will reach a new lower high). The best quality gold stocks will therefore rally both on the gold price and on the general market rally (and on the beginnings of an understanding among investers that gold miners are just about the only sane bet on a 2-3 year time horizon). So expect a "quality" gold mining share to rally by 30-100% in the coming weeks, but then don't be surprised if all of those gains are then wiped out in a very very short space of time (as the next piece of really bad news arrives). Don't be surprised if the gold price crashes again to new lows. Also steer clear of any miner (large or small) that is in need of funding or has any hint of cash flow problems or heavy exposure to a specific political risk (on the basis that just about anything that can go wrong is likely to be going wrong in the coming weeks). On this basis I may go long YAU next week.

[hectorp] 25/10/2008 17:12

"There are at present more people and institutions needing to find money than who have money to invest, and they're selling anything to get their hands on money" ( ie, from a post earlier).
True, and that is the key to why gold comex price is so low. But by hook and crook money will be made to flow, even if its loads of 'new' cash. When that cash starts to flow, the tied-up cash will flood out too.
Once a ship is holed the water will inevitably flow in. Then we will see why its a good time to have been buying gold and gold shares.

[hectorp] 25/10/2008 17:02

nuueva, why so? though gold was actually up $8 on close Friday.

[ukgeorge] 25/10/2008 12:54

Valued at $60m




The Varvarinskoye Project, Kazakhstan

The project is 100% owned by Orsu Metals Corporation and currently has measured, indicated and inferred the following resources:

Gold 5.01Moz
Copper 607Mlb


Current proven and probable reserves:

Gold 2.2Moz
Copper 254Mlb


At metal prices of US$525/ounce for gold and US$1.30/pound for copper.

The deposit has simple metallurgy, strong economics and potential for expansion. The project is expected to treat 4.2Mt of ore per annum with an overall strip ratio of 4.17:1 and has a current mine life of 17 years.

Construction
Construction of the processing plant has been completed, and the initial production of gold concentrate commenced in December 2007. By the end of Q2 2008, shipping of the first two lots of copper-gold concentrate totalling 5,000 tonnes were completed, with an estimated contained value of over US$9m. The sale of Varvarinskoye's gold doré is continuing and as of July 2008 9,514 ounces have been sold, with a total value of over US$7m.

Subsequent to a cash injection of US$25 million by Lero Gold Corporation during April 2008 (from the CAD$66 million Lero Gold raised), essential operational equipment and mining supplies are now arriving at Varvarinskoye which will allow operations to continue with minimal interruptions while ramping towards nominal capacity.


Production
The plant has seen significant increases in throughput and operated at 79% of design throughput during August 2008, with over 280,000 tonnes processed. Since commencement of production at Varvarinskoye, the mine has produced 2,384.5 tonnes (5.25Mlb) of copper and 820kg (26,368 oz) gold, including:

12,949 tonnes of copper-gold concentrate containing;

2,384.5 tonnes (5.25Mlb) of copper and

286.9 kg (9,224 ozs) of gold

and

820 kg (26,368 oz) gold, comprising

533.3 kg (17,145 ozs) gold in doré and

concentrate as above

Total production revenue to date (26 September 2008) is approximately US$35 million.

See the latest corporate and project update.



24 Oct 2008 4:30 PM UKT
Exchange : OSU (AIM) OSU (TSX)
Mid Price : 5.00 0.10
Volume : 20,000 786,365
0.00 0.01

View Share Price Charts

[nuueva] 25/10/2008 09:31

This will rocket on Monday morning. The suckers rally is starting a week early for the bigger gold miners. Yamana seems to be one of the less riskier bets. We can expect a nice rally through November, but a dangerous game as we need to get back out before the next wave of the tsunami hits....

[uncle-bob] 22/10/2008 09:45

JF - Pound's down against pretty much everything, not just dollar. Down even more against yen. Blame King and the UK economy.

But yes, $ seems to be something of a safe haven right now, which is why I'm short £/$. It's safer than £/yen, because £/$ can fall even when the markets are rallying, but yen is tied to carry trades and optimism etc. Then again, I'm often wrong about these things!