Xtract Resources Share Discussion Threads

[the diddymen] 11/12/2021 17:00

gfg I think that you can take CB at face value. XTR will not be developing Bushranger.

[papillon] 11/12/2021 16:59

"Looks from Fridays trades the lock-in shares have been taken up by someone"
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I think you could be correct with that statement, gfg
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"Still 3 years to 5 years till production"
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I think you're being very optimistic with that time line, gfg, bearing in mind the potential size of the Bushranger discoveries.
I also think it has absolutely no bearing on XTR because there is no way that XTR will be part of the story during the preparations for production.
Why do I think that? Two reasons :
Firstly Colin Bird is in his late 70's so will want a return on his money long before then and secondly the precedent set by his previous large scale discovery, Kiwara (KIW). He sold KIW back in 2009 for around $250m within 2 years of the discovery.
Even with much smaller discoveries (eg Glenover with GLR) he has shown he doesn't want to get involved in long drawn-out preparations for production.
I don't know why you keep mentioning the time to production, gfg, because CB's history and age make that time line immaterial for both CB & XTR.
For what it's worth I think CB has been on the look out for a big value discovery since KIW. Bushranger is that discovery and a big coup, especially if it's his swansong. What a lovely retirement present!
I also believe that further exploration during 2022 will prove up further resource. Obviously copper, but also gold. Gold could be the icing on the cake especially if the gold price starts to take off again in 2022 as most experts seem to believe.

[the diddymen] 11/12/2021 16:59

GS, it will be 75% of the story only, while the final word on contained copper will be the assay.

It is a half way house only but I think that it would at least enable potential investors to visualise the size of Racecourse and to find some balance in valuation.

I do not see this as part of the overture to AA. AA is a different business and they will want a JORC for all of the tenement. The interim valuation achieved by the MT of ore in Racecourse is no more and no less.

XTR would be in a better position starting from a point of a realistic valuation, particularly if CB needs to finance two more drilling phases at the same time. Right now the market is looking highly uninterested in what might have the hallmarks of another Cadia.

[goforgold1] 11/12/2021 16:08

Still 3 years to 5 years till production

[goforgold1] 11/12/2021 16:08

Looks from Fridays trades the lock-in shares have been taken up by someone .

[guyshelby] 11/12/2021 13:46

The idea of informing the market with that ‘estimatedR17; ore body/resource update I thought was a bit wishy washy anyway. Just bit premature with the risk the market would not take it seriously until it is backed by assay data. So I’m guessing now with the evidence and the release of the confirmation of Ascot that this news will keep the market cap at a buoyant level into the new year when a definitive resource model with presentation by the oz team will be released. They will have a better understanding of where production facilities will be sited by then that will service both mines, to include in model. Also, a JORC revision to follow shortly after will underpin work to date and both would be a catalyst for a rerate along with confirmation as it comes in of expected revenues from other assets that will pay toward drilling efforts in oz.
I doubt AA will step in with an offer as soon as the 2mt threshold has been breached. I don’t believe this is the bod’s concerns. AA has an obligation to its own shareholders to achieve value. Would they not want to let xtract take the risks to prove up the assets to a saleable package before attempting an offer that could be , likely or not turned down by the bod of xtract. In which case they would lose the right to first refusal that forms the main part of the buy-back agreement.
Colin has expressed clear intent of extensive exploration that would be have to be included in any sale. I think focus has just shifted now away from this guesstimate idea.
HZ-LSE

[the diddymen] 11/12/2021 11:00

I am trying to understand what is CB's strategy and whether it is dictated by drill outcomes or decisions.

The Zak interview was an opportunity to disclose the MTs of ore. He did not. Was that because the MT of ore does not give a clear cut answer or was it because it is not in CB's interest to set the green light for discussions with AA. The answer at the moment is that we cannot know and we can only grab at clues.

What is clear is that the new strategy is to drill every anomaly to scope the asset. That of course could be an indication that he knows that he is over the 2MT contained but he now needs to establish whether it is a cadia style multi-porphyry (clue?).

Assuming a reasonable tonnage of contained copper in Ascot, the structural costs of developing a twin site are going to be significantly less and that must add value - the obvious assumption here would be that there is no real debate over AA to be had - they have to be included.

The trouble of course, and I hate to be disparaging about investors (of which I am one) - but we are collectively thick and our time horizons are measured in weeks not months. So no great surprse the market takes profits. This is a potential problem for CB because sometimes trends can become habits for the wrong reasons. A stagnant share price and just when CB wants to raise some quick cash to go for a specific solution, he is into unnecessarily heavy dilution.

In terms of low hanging share price fruit, the MT of ore is the only figure that is available. Over the last 6 months the RNSs have been outstanding. A world class porphyry copper deposit in a market that is about to (allegedly) switch to copper. Right time, right politics, right geography, right everything, and here we are with the risk that gfg will be talking 4p again. Surely CB has to disclose the MT of ore. With Ascot it is irrelevant if it is a tad under.

In reality if Ascot had not been found and CB is to be believed XTR would have been selling Bushranger for a minimum £250m next year. As it is Ascot and any other finds will add value but delay the sale. The only relevant word for UK investors in that sentence is delay.

The short term price is irrelevant to me but I do not want to see an undervaluation becoming a habit and my instinct is that CB needs to address this. XTR's approach is a puzzle and it is probably reflected in the price.

[papillon] 10/12/2021 19:38

If you look at the daily chart for yesterday it looks like all 3 of the above trades were sells, as a best guess, going by the times quoted.
They could have been sells by those locked in until 27th October as mentioned by gfg earlier. Hopefully that source of sellers has now dried up. If that is the case then the XTR share price should soon benefit.

[papillon] 10/12/2021 19:17

09-Dec-21 15:42:57 5.786 500,000 Unknown* 28.93k O
09-Dec-21 16:21:08 5.60 1,500,000 Unknown* 84.00k O
09-Dec-21 16:22:58 5.70 500,000 Unknown* 28.50k O

The reporting of these 3 trades from yesterday were delayed until after today's close. 2 x 500k and a 1.5m trade.

[papillon] 10/12/2021 14:09

You're forgetting that CB is in his late '70's, gfg. There is no way he will want to hang around for 3-5 years (more likely a lot longer than that as SOLG shows) whilst mining preparations take place. It will all depend on the price CB can get in the short term, which will no doubt depend on the size of the Cu resource. The additional Au will come in handy!!

[the count of monte_cristo] 10/12/2021 14:02

Just presents another opportunity to add to your holdings.

[papillon] 10/12/2021 13:54

A 25% spike in the sp, as happened yesterday afternoon, gfg, will alway tempt those sitting on large paper profits to turn part (or even all) of it into cash, especially if another share takes their fancy. Hence a drop back down today was always possible. Where the share price will bottom out I have no idea. No doubt it will depend on news flow which comes thick and fast with XTR.
Regarding your so called "flippers" I don't imagine they are any more prevalent with XTR than any other speculative exploration stock with an exciting future.
I've no doubt that CB has no intention of taking Bushranger into production. He will sell Bushranger for as much as he can get long before then. That's his modus operandi. Look no further than what he did with KIW and did yesterday with GLR's Glenover. He doesn't hang around and get involved in all the very expensive preparations necessary to start mining. It all depends on the best price he can get for Bushranger long before then.

[goforgold1] 10/12/2021 13:22

This share is full of Short term investors Flippers .. Thats why it does not hold any gains trades from 4.5p to 6p

[goforgold1] 10/12/2021 13:14

Are you all forgetting the 1.25p shares thats are out of lock in from 27th October .. There are more to come i must admit i missed the 4.40p buy time was stuck in something else .. It will come again this is at least 3 to 5 years away from production ... Unless AA buy it out

[papillon] 10/12/2021 12:50

andmillsy has posted this reply, on the lse bb, to Ella10's post. It definitely appears that Bushranger could contain not only a lot of copper, but also a lot of gold as well! Very exciting!!

"Interesting thought Ella.
I am clearly well out of my depth but searched for the siliceous term in combination with Lachlan Fold - it appears positive in my poorly informed opinion"

[papillon] 10/12/2021 11:41

The following was just posted by Ella10 (the poster the ARCM conspiracy theorists reckon is Colin Bird 😂). Hopefully Ella10 has some insight into behind the scenes at XTR, because a significant gold discovery to add to the copper would be brilliant news.

"I'm no expert but I thought that they might have been trying to follow the gold anomaly from hole 16.


I don't know what significance the word siliceous has for hole 29 but it was a very definite hint about something. Was it just a hint about the new porphyry. I am hoping we are going to see some more gold.
"Based on preliminary logging, and subject to laboratory assays, the hole intersected zones of very siliceous alteration with traces of chalcopyrite from 66m to 525m downhole""

[papillon] 10/12/2021 11:28

I didn't say it wouldn't be cracked, 2603, just that it was proving to be a tough nut to crack. The XTR share price has tried 3 times to breakout above 6p and stay above it for the past 7 weeks. 6p is proving to be a psychological barrier.
Once it has been finally broken the next psychological barrier is 8p.

[2603] 10/12/2021 10:54

It will do, patience, volume is good so hopefully 6p should be come support very soon.

[papillon] 10/12/2021 10:20

6p resistance is proving to be a tough nut to crack.

[cinoib] 10/12/2021 09:31

Looks like the sellers are done for now. I expect it was those who bought in the 4's taking their 10%. Why take 10 when you could get 100%, fools.

[kangaman] 10/12/2021 09:11

Ascot potentially as big as bushranger, bushranger growing by the week, 35 holes all successful, another target or two to go for, whats not to like.

[buzzarn] 10/12/2021 08:05

https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/traders-cafe-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-xtract-resources-33636a3/

[the count of monte_cristo] 10/12/2021 01:50

O/T Chesty1 - I will have a look at WSBN & SOU. Now is really a great time to be picking up bombed out resource stocks positioning yourself for next year. I like the GLR story too, drilling now across their Kalahari projects. These projects are very underexplored. That being said XTR is still by far my largest holding, moving from 100% to 86% of my holding from earlier this year.

Some of the gold stocks are now looking exceedingly cheap, the likes of ADT1, SHG, PUR, POLY and CEY all looking cheap, the latter two pay an excellent divi as well!

Oil stocks are also looking great value over a longer term; Producers like GENL and GKP offer excellent dividends, people don't like them because they are in Kurdistan but GKP have one of the worlds largest oil finds in the last 20 years with Shaikan. Explorers like 88E and PANR will be drilling for giant oil fields in Jan/Feb 2022. PANR may be sitting on one of North Americas largest onshore oil finds in the last 30 years.

[the count of monte_cristo] 10/12/2021 01:43

Kangaman, it's already economic. Have a listen to all of this years excellent interviews with CB and the team and this will answer your questions:)

[the diddymen] 09/12/2021 20:51

Time for CB and Zak to rematerialise and give investors the Racecourse and SE anomaly picture. While this will remain deeply discounted until the full picture is clear you can see XTR topping 10p before Christmas. Racecourse for the moment will remain the substance.

You just get the feeling that the 6p ceiling is about to be broken.

Not the time to sell.