Wt Wheat 2x Discussion Threads

[strollingmolby] 23/7/2023 21:21

timmy40 - this article may have the answer, stating that other global producers have stepped in to meet demand:

Cost of living: What the surge in wheat prices this week means for your daily bread
Commodity markets are reflecting jitters over Russia's exit from the Black Sea export deal but there is every reason to believe a renewed price shock is unlikely.

...

While wider food inflation is easing from its peaks earlier this year, the fear is that corn and wheat-based products will be on the sharp march upwards again.

However, there are several reasons to think that will not happen.

First, the market futures prices remain well down on the peaks of last year and punitive energy costs are starting to fall for businesses involved in the supply chain process.

Secondly, global wheat crop forecasts, for example, are up on last year's total with 784 million metric tons expected by the International Grains Council compared to the 781 million harvested last year.

In short, higher prices have incentivised more global growers.

[timmy40] 22/7/2023 20:44

Why is Wheat so cheap given the climate crisis and Ukraine war, doesn't make sense ?

[strollingmolby] 20/7/2023 11:24

Ukraine war: Wheat prices soar after Russia threatens ships

Wheat prices have risen sharply on global markets after Russia said it would treat ships heading for Ukrainian ports as potential military targets.

Moscow pulled out of a UN deal on Monday that ensured safe passage for grain shipments crossing the Black Sea.

For the past three nights Russia has bombarded Ukraine's grain facilities in Odesa and other cities.

[tongosti] 27/6/2023 17:05

Thank you. Looked it up. Yesterday futures touched (intraday) 5 standard deviations away from the 21 day moving average. A rare occurrence indeed. Last time same thing happened was the first week of March last year.

[strollingmolby] 27/6/2023 11:48

If you look at the FT link below the graphs, you can see that the front month futures price is coming off a recent high. LWEA seems to be lagging those prices if you compare the graphs side-by-side.

[tongosti] 27/6/2023 10:35

SM - thank you for your feedback, much appreciated.

[strollingmolby] 26/6/2023 09:59

Hi tongosti - I have no insights on the wheat markets, I'm afraid, though one might imagine the futures would rise in recognition of a smaller crop from Ukraine next year. Though what proportion of all wheat that is, I don't know...

You mentioned large volumes two Friday's back - I'd wager that was the 'triple witching' whereby the quarterly expiration of stock options, stock index futures contracts, and stock index options contracts all occur on the same day, being the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.

[tongosti] 26/6/2023 09:25

Good jump - a fresh uptrend is taking place.

[tongosti] 22/6/2023 09:26

Question - what's your take (if any) on wheat fundamentals? Thank you.

[tongosti] 22/6/2023 09:03

What got my attention was last Friday's huge volumes in the futures market + the chart structure. Let's see if this has any further legs (if dxy travels south from here that would help further).

[strollingmolby] 22/6/2023 07:22

Yes, still here. Looking like a reversal on the chart over the last month.

[tongosti] 21/6/2023 23:50

Anybody around? Explosion of volumes from a key reversal point since from last Friday.

[strollingmolby] 11/7/2016 11:46

World grain glut set to enter fourth year

[bobzie] 14/9/2012 03:30

I met this geezer in Prague last year! He told me that he worked on the oil rigs!!! We've kept in touch ever since, because I said I had some in a few oil company's he just happens to be on a rig at the moment which he has informed me that it's a very close nit tight regime BUT according to him there has been quite a few important suites arriving which he said and I quote "doesn't happen when you've not hit hydrocarbons" bring on Friday monday or when ever it may bg

[rivet] 14/9/2012 02:58

look at the huge bull flag on this chart, retest of the 7's coming before year end.

[hectorp] 03/2/2012 19:04

Time to go looooong..

[rivet] 09/11/2011 15:05

Anyone else long wheat?

[vino] 28/5/2011 23:16

hectorp

russia opening up exports again as their harvest looking ok

[hectorp] 28/5/2011 10:48

Why so cheap.
Guardian today 'European drought now becoming serious.. rain now essential.
( they could have some of Scotland's recent rain, too wet and windy up here.)

[strollingmolby] 18/1/2011 08:59

Perhaps we'll see 6 on the next push up, Wapper.

[wapper] 07/12/2010 09:38

Set to push on through 6.00 & then a strong run up from there.Am LONG