Wt Livestock Discussion Threads

[hazelton] 10/1/2010 12:48

Could this be the bounce ???

[abundance99] 07/7/2008 19:12

Looking for a bounce soon.

[ptolemy] 30/6/2008 19:16

This looks good for H2.

Risks are (1) that softs will fall back in H2 and so feedstuffs for livestock will become cheaper, (2) GBP will show some strength against dollar, even whilst other currencies are weakening, (3) recession will slow asia's demand for higher protein diet.

On balance I'm bullish. It's certainly a more conservative play than softs.

[atkijo] 01/6/2008 16:54

Yes, happy with the way this is moving now. Given how much all the input prices have gone up (ie livestock feed = grains) there really is only one way this can go in the mid-term. Demand on an ever upward trend too.

Also, once sterling really starts to collapse against the dollar (and other currencies for that matter) then there will be a nice currency gain on top as well.

All IMHO.

[stegrego] 12/5/2008 06:56

Coming along quite nicely now, downtrend appears to be broken

[bobdouthwaite] 28/4/2008 17:45

Hog Outlook
Glenn Grimes & Ron Plain,
University of Missouri - Columbia
April 25, 2008

green line

The odds are high that April hog slaughters will exceed ten million head, up about 18 percent from a year earlier. However, April this year had one more week day slaughter than a year earlier. The slaughter increased on a daily basis up about 14 percent from 2007.

Demand for live hogs continues to be very good. For January-March, live hog demand this year was up 8.0 percent from a year earlier. A significant portion of this live hog demand growth can be attributed to growth in pork exports. Remember February pork exports were up about 55 percent from a year earlier.

The odds appear very high that hog producers are reducing the breeding head. Since March 1, gilt slaughter based on our sample has been up 2 percent and sow slaughter has been up 11 percent from a year earlier after adjusting for herd size.

The average weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota for the week ending April 19 was at 265.6 pounds down 0.8 pound from a week earlier and down 3 pounds from a year earlier.

Pork product prices pushed higher again this week with the cut-out per cwt of carcass at $72.21 per cwt Thursday afternoon up $4.51 per cwt from seven days earlier. Loin prices at $95.08 per cwt up $4.99 per cwt, Boston butts at $77.78 per cwt up $7.12 per cwt, ham at $80.90 per cwt up $6.85 per cwt from a week earlier.

The future market continues to show the potential for larger than normal price increases from here to the summer contracts. One cannot rule out the possibility that these prices will develop but it takes a sizzling hot demand or smaller slaughter than now indicated or some combination of both factors.

The futures market has offered a higher market than the spot market for hogs since the 15th of August last year. The futures market based other market contract had premiums to cash of around $30 per head last winter and were about $5.50 per head above last year in mid week.

Cold storage stocks of pork at the end of March were up 8 percent from a month earlier and up 33 percent from a year earlier. There are trade reports that at lease a part of the increase in cold storage stocks are due to a short supply of shipping constraints for pork exports. At least they do not appear to be having much negative impact on the seasonal increase in hog prices.

[abundance99] 16/4/2008 22:42

I'd go along with that George but was tempted in today. Commodities looking strong again and so I'm going to stick my neck out and say that last week's lows won't be seen again.

Upside potential here is big given that it is linked to the grains which have had such a great run. Also, this is measured in dollars and since September the dollar has also fallen quite a distance which increases the over 20% fall that you can see on the above chart for those of us investing in sterling. Risk to reward is now in our favour. Onwards and upwards!

[george62] 16/4/2008 06:56

Hasn't yet broken the downtrend chanel in my view. A close above 550p and it may well do tho.

[abundance99] 16/4/2008 00:46

Has this bottomed? Tempted by fundamentals and now by the chart. Not a charting expert but it looks like it hasn't definitley broken the trend yet. Anyone any ideas as to when it could be said to have broken the downtrend?

[jockthescot] 02/4/2008 08:28

......and back down today!

[atkijo] 01/4/2008 18:16

Blimey - an up day, haven't been many of them recently. Not necessarily bottomed out yet of course, but one of these days it will have done.

[jockthescot] 31/3/2008 16:53

Hmmm - looks like Hogs is dragging this down again.

[luckythedog] 27/3/2008 20:53

Thanks Atkijo, very helpful :)

[atkijo] 26/3/2008 19:31

Seems a sensible move to me - the large increases in grain prices seen over the last year or so are bound to make their way into beef & pork prices sooner or later (and I would suggest sooner rather than later). The spread is less than 1% most of the time, so no issues there. But yes the price has been falling for months, but so long as you are taking a medium to long term view then this has to be a good price to buy in at. (I hold, bought in a bit early as it turns out).

The ETF is composed 58% Beef and 42% Pork (although that was at Jan 07, so may have changed a bit now).

[luckythedog] 26/3/2008 19:12

Have got a reasonable stake in Grain EFT (AGGP). looking to diversify some of my holding into livestock. Does anyone know any reasons why I shouldn't? (eg large spread, continued drop).

[flips] 18/3/2008 17:59

Has this turned the corner - or just a good day on the markets?

[jockthescot] 14/3/2008 21:58

Not sure we'll see a base Yam114. Think we'll see a final serious fall followed by a serious bounce!

Jock

[yam114] 14/3/2008 21:21

I shall also buy sometime in the future the fall seems a bit steep just now I would like it base before buying if possible.

[luckythedog] 14/3/2008 12:28

Thanks for advice guys. Definately planning to buy but might hold off for a bit longer and probably won't get too much as it seems quite volatile:)

[5benny] 13/3/2008 17:16

There's a special isa report in this weeks Moneyweek where they recommend - short US small cap stocks - buy platinum - and buy livestock.They go on to say thev've been long commodities since 2005 and livestock is a natural extension of this.They say historically a 100% rise in grain prices should lead to a 30% or more increase in livestock prices with a 3 to 6 month lag.We anticipate livestock prices could even rise by a full 100% in the coming year.One of the easiest ways to play this move is though the livestock ETF. AIGL.

5benny

[jockthescot] 13/3/2008 16:05

Just given the situation in Livestock farming at the moment, I believe we still have worst to come. There will then be the flood onto the market pushing the price down substantially, and we may then see a rise in price.

Not yet though IMO.

Jock

[5benny] 13/3/2008 15:57

I've been watching this too.Been tipped in MoneyWeek a couple of times lately

[luckythedog] 12/3/2008 23:29

Really interested in this ETF. Only thing that puts me off for now is the chart. Anyone got any theory, ideas or voodoo as to when prices will rise?

[atkijo] 08/3/2008 19:50

Thanks for setting up the thread. Can't disagree with the points you make, and the price has fallen 20% in the last 6 months. Difficult to see how this can't be higher in 12 months time. Dollar weakness will have an adverse impact in the short term, but that will fade once it becomes more evident that the UK economy is actually in no better shape than the US economy. Already hold and intend to top up shortly.

[stegrego] 08/3/2008 19:35

Goes something like this -

Grain prices up, farmers slaughter loads of animals and cash in rather than pay extra for feed.

Meanwhile, China and India are getting a taste for protein, with Pork prices going through the roof in China.

With less inventory going forward, higher costs and higher demand should = higher prices.