Wt Coffee Discussion Threads

[energyi] 30/4/2004 18:08

88-68= 18 x.618= 11
Support near: 68+7= 75??

Moregas,
Have you given up on Coffee then?

[energyi] 12/3/2004 15:43

OJ is trying to find a bottom

[moregas] 12/3/2004 15:19

longed it for a taster. can't see any vol confirmation (chart is up the spout i think) but bounced off 50ma, above short term ma's and now broke inv hns neck.

[energyi] 04/3/2004 07:54

I use GNI, and trade mostly options

[moregas] 04/3/2004 01:36

hey energyi what are the easiest tools for a small timer to 'buy' commodities? So far there seems to be Finspreads but that is 3months and your out more or less. (I know you could roll). Don't want to buy the thing..I'm very small time. Fins seems OK but, just don't like the 3months for these ..seems too soon an expriation.

[a.fewbob] 07/1/2004 21:10

We can sure try!

[energyi] 07/1/2004 20:33

Awaiting a pullback, if it comes.

(May have missed this one. You can get them all!)

[a.fewbob] 07/1/2004 20:03

Do you have any position in coffee energyi or are you considering?

[energyi] 07/1/2004 17:33

NEW YEAR, & Coffee is Motoring!

[a.fewbob] 05/1/2004 22:10

Wow, I knew Faber was fond of coffee but triple! Where did you see that prediction, can you give us the bones of it?

[energyi] 20/12/2003 13:27

Dec04 coffee near $0.72
Faber thinks it will triple

[energyi] 31/10/2003 13:53

FOOD & FIBER

SOFTS: March sugar closed up 7 points at 6.19 cents today. Prices closed near the session high. A weekly high close on Friday would do the bulls some good.

December coffee closed down 160 points at 59.70 cents today. Prices dropped to a fresh 14-month low as more technical damage was inflicted today.

To UPDATED Weekly Chart:

[energyi] 12/9/2003 20:40

There's Trouble Brewing in the World Coffee Market - September 10, 2003

by Stephen S. Poloz, Vice-President and Chief Economist
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

World coffee prices are a third of what they were five years ago. To a North American consumer this plunge has been almost invisible, because the portion received by the grower represents a tiny fraction of the cost of a cup of coffee. But it is proving difficult for producing countries.

Unlike its oil-producing cousin organization, OPEC, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) has found it impossible to stabilize prices for its members. In 1997, the composite world price of coffee was around US$1.50 per pound, while today the price is about 50 cents. Not surprisingly, export earnings by coffee producers today are about half what they were in 1997. The culprit? Increased supply. Global production has risen by around 20% since 1997, around twice the increase in demand. And with inventories rising, the downward pressure on prices is likely to continue, unless there is a major supply disruption due to weather or a successful new effort to coordinate and restrict global supply.

Two countries account for almost all of the increase in supply. The first is Brazil, which has roughly doubled its output since 1997, and now accounts for about 40% of world production. The second is Viet Nam, which produces about one-quarter of Brazil's volume but has also roughly doubled output since 1997. This has brought Viet Nam into the same league as Colombia, historically the world's second-largest producer of coffee. Together, these three produce close to 60% of the world's coffee, easily dwarfing the myriad other small producers around the world.

Since low coffee prices appear to be the product of unfettered international competition, it will take more than wishful thinking to stabilize the market. Prices are now below production cost in some countries. This will eventually lead some smaller producers to cut production, which in turn will cause prices to stabilise or improve. One positive side-effect would be a diversification of economic activity in some producing countries. For example, Costa Rica has reduced its dependence on coffee by over 75% during the past 10 years through economic diversification.

Although desirable, such restructuring will be difficult for countries where coffee production is a natural activity representing a large share of total income. In the case of Brazil, coffee exports contribute only 0.3% of total GDP, despite their importance to the world coffee market. In contrast, for a much smaller economy like Colombia, 1% of GDP comes from coffee, while for Viet Nam the figure is over 2%. Africa also has some highly coffee-dependent economies, of which Ethiopia (4% of GDP), Cote D'Ivoire (3%), Uganda (2%) and Kenya (1%) stand out. In Central America, Honduras and Nicaragua receive around 3% of GDP from coffee exports. To put these figures into perspective, raw agricultural exports represent about 1% of Canada's GDP; adding higher-value food exports to that brings the figure up to about 3% of GDP.

The bottom line? Coffee is a crucial commodity for some economies that are already fragile, both economically and politically. Market pressures will eventually force some of them out of the coffee market and into other activities. Meanwhile, perhaps we could all drink one more cup a day?

Stephen S. Poloz
Vice-President and Chief Economist
Export Development Canada
[e-mail]

[energyi] 06/9/2003 23:09

coffee moving up as the dollar starts to fall

[energyi] 01/9/2003 23:05

Looking again...

[energyi] 10/4/2003 11:10

coffee news

[energyi] 29/12/2002 16:18

I might look at 60 cent CALLS, if they are cheap enough
- - -

CHART suggests STRONG SUPPORT at 60 cent level:

[deltablues] 12/12/2002 10:49

Yep, probably see the at least low 50s followed by a long drift sideways, as coffee seems to go in for snuffing out every last spark of optimism and then boring the living daylights out of everyone before starting to move up when least expected.

BobP, have a look at some historical charts and see how fast coffee moves once it gets going. Believe it or not, it's actually one of the most exciting markets around, though unless you're an experienced futures trader it's probably best traded from the comfort of your armchair!

[energyi] 11/12/2002 23:51

why the big drop to below 62 today?
COT figures show COFF was over-owned by Funds.
Retrenchment may be needed before sustainable rally

END JAN:
Seasonally, is often a good time to buy

SUPPORT: near 58-59, if broken, we could see 52-53
on THIS chart: