Wpp Share Discussion Threads

[gateside] 06/11/2016 22:50

With Clinton being cleared of charges from FBI, I'd expect a big up day on the Markets tomorrow.

[nasdaqpat] 05/11/2016 11:09

Trump isn't really a Republican so the Reagan type effect will not happen, IMO.

[gateside] 05/11/2016 11:08

Added a few more TUI this week.

[gateside] 05/11/2016 11:06

Agree... Clinton is the lesser of the two evils.

[nasdaqpat] 05/11/2016 10:54

Yes, I think it would cost the DOW about a 1000 points (Clinton is bankrolled by the likes of GS.) but let's hope we don't get to find out!

[gateside] 05/11/2016 10:39

Would a Trump victory decimate equities? First let me say I'm no fan of the guy at all. But at the end of the day, he will have a team of people to advise him. Without checking the figures does the US stock market not generally do better with Republicans in power as they are more pro business? Or is this of less relevance in this instance as Trump has no political experience?

[nasdaqpat] 05/11/2016 10:28

Next Monday & Tuesday will probably see a further decline on FTSE down to 6500:6550 range. I will incrementally be buying more VUKE but am reluctant to push our portfolio beyond 65% stock as there now seems to be a real chance of a Trump victory which could decimate equities. There could be a large and sustained bounce from Wednesday onwards so it is a delicate balancing act.

[nasdaqpat] 05/11/2016 10:04

My main focus now is trying to time the Phase or Segmental correction low for FTSE100.

One good aspect of the current weakness is that both DOW and SPX have already put in 58 days of downside albeit that DOW's decline (18668:17884) has only been (04.20%) thus far and SPX's decline (2194:2084) has only been (05.01%). It is also likely that DOW & SPX are not in a Phase correction but are merely in Segmental corrections. SPX will be partially affected by Nasdaq stocks playing catch up so the focus possibly should be on DOW.

DOW's latest Segment was number three since 15370 on 24 Aug 2015. S3 (17063:18668) lasted 34 days and accrued 09.41%. if DOW is in a Phase correction then 17063 will be lowered but, assuming I am right about the current weakness being a Segmental correction which assumes a Clinton victory, then my guess would be a c(70.00%) give back leading to c17545 which would probably arrive next Tuesday. So, only another couple of percent decline but, of course, if Trump wins then further weakness and a Phase correction will undoubtedly follow.

For FTSE100 then, the usual knock on weakness from America is likely to be limited and will continue to be overshadowed by the BREXIT induced political uncertainties and consequential sterling volatility and with the decline in POO also having an effect. Nevertheless, I think we may get away with the c(55.00%) full Segmental correction of 5789:7130 variation highlighted in Post 9115 so c6392 is my new target albeit it is unclear when that level will be reached...it may be days away but could also be early next year.

[nasdaqpat] 05/11/2016 09:32

As I've said before, you called it right by sticking with the internationally focused heavyweights and deserve your reward this year.

In fact, I have concluded that due to BREXIT related uncertainties, principally non sterling earners should continue to outperform over the next few years and the FTSE100 should do better than FTSE250.

That requires a fundamental change to our portfolio and, whilst FTSE100 trackers are part of the solution, I may have missed the opportunity of the prerequisite selling of much of our current stock as we now already appear to be in a serious correction and 7130 on 11 Oct could well have been the Phase top.

I do not sell quality shares that are approaching lows so I will probably stick with what we've currently got for the next Up Phase or at least until another discernible Segmental top has been reached.

[gateside] 05/11/2016 08:35

Good estimate nasdaqpat ~ portfolio is now at +16.08% for 2016

I've always felt that if I'm going to invest, I should have a portfolio that has a Global approach.

All my shares are bought on the UK stock market, but to focus just on UK PLC seems very narrow, (I'm not saying that your portfolio is narrow, as I know that you have many International companies too). That is why i prefer many of my companies to reach out to European or Global Markets, and also why one of my Trackers is invested in Frontier Markets.

I know that this leaves me exposed to currency variations, and it has been the strength of the dollar which has helped to boost my portfolio this year. But in previous years it has hurt my portfolio.

Nothing against companies that are just UK based. It is just the direction that my portfolio has drifted as I feel more comfortable with a more International based portfolio. It also compensates for my portfolio being centered round certain sectors of the Market, and ignoring many sectors altogether.

[nasdaqpat] 05/11/2016 00:26

Furthermore, Invisage, I don't really think you are ready to enter our little competition so I have removed you from the performance table - maybe next year if your general attitude improves.

[nasdaqpat] 05/11/2016 00:20

The Sage of Omaha certainly had a good run but of course anybody could have made serious money in the 1990s...especially in the USA with the DOW rising 408.0% from 2344 on 17 Jul 1990 to 11908 on 13 Jan 2000.

How relevant the words in the extract are today is debatable. You seem obsessed with the idea that nobody can do better than the FTSE100. That may be true in your case but Gateside and I have provided data that shows that we have both beaten the FTSE100 (including adding in dividends) over the 5 year period from 2011 to 2015 inclusive.

Get over it and stop exhibiting transference of your own shortcomings. As for timing the market, selling up completely at the end of 2014 and staying out until after the BREXIT vote is suggestive of somebody who doesn't know what the hell they are doing. My methods work just fine for me and my family and I don't take too kindly to continually being told that I over trade when you haven't the faintest idea of the intricacies involved.

[invisage] 04/11/2016 23:19

Let me add a few thoughts about your own investments. Most
investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way
to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees.
Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees
and expenses) delivered by the great majority of investment
professionals.

Should you choose, however, to construct your own portfolio, there
are a few thoughts worth remembering. Intelligent investing is not
complex, though that is far from saying that it is easy. What an
investor needs is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses.
Note that word "selected": You don't have to be an expert on every
company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies
within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very
important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.

To invest successfully, you need not understand beta, efficient
markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing or emerging markets.
You may, in fact, be better off knowing nothing of these. That, of
course, is not the prevailing view at most business schools, whose
finance curriculum tends to be dominated by such subjects. In our view,
though, investment students need only two well-taught courses - How to
Value a Business, and How to Think About Market Prices.

Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational
price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose
earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and
twenty years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies
that meet these standards - so when you see one that qualifies, you
should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the
temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren't willing to own a
stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes.
Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march
upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value.

hxxp://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1996.html

[invisage] 04/11/2016 21:12

LolI'm not looking at my portfolio today.This is part of investing though. Ups and downs...... just got keep at it and stay on course.The less you trade the more you make.

[gateside] 04/11/2016 20:55

Not sure I really want to update my portfolio - but I will!

[gateside] 04/11/2016 20:39

3 up, 1 level, 20 downI'll update portfolio later on tonight.

[nasdaqpat] 04/11/2016 16:50

Our portfolio moderately under performed today with just 4 Shares Up, 53 Down and 3 Unchanged. However, the week as a whole was good compared to the FTSE100 with investments Down (03.77%) as opposed to FTSE100 which was Down (04.33%) (6996:6693). Overall, our assets were Down (01.77%) on the week. The calendar year performance table now stands at :-

Gateside~~~+16.08%~~(Still H & S ahead despite a bad week)
FTSE100~~~~+10.87%~~(6242:6693 + 03.64% Dividend Yield)
FTSE AS~~~~+09.21%~~(3444:3642 + 03.46% Dividend Yield)
Videans~~~~+05.07%~~(Improving relative to benchmarks)
FTSE250~~~~+03.10%~~(17205:17271 + 02.72% Dividend Yield)

Continuing to Add on weakness and introduced 2 FTSE100 trackers to portfolio. Stock level now 58.2% from 46.9% at the end of last week.

[invisage] 04/11/2016 15:39

I've given up trying to call the markets. Doing so makes me overtrade and therefore pass my profits onto brokers.Instead most of my time is spent owning quality companies and adding to them with the dividends I get.If I take a 10 plus year view I think one can expect the FTSE to be higher then where it is today.I've also been buying global tracker too and will add.Most of the money is made when the general markets go up. There aren't many individual stocks that outperform the market year in year out over a 10 year period. In fact it is very rare.Generally to beat FTSE one needs to buy high beta relative to the market and generally smaller cap companies. But trying to do so can also result in material losses.

[nasdaqpat] 04/11/2016 14:38

Remember, one key level for FTSE is 6654 which was the rally point after the mini-correction of 5789:6955. Once FTSE has gone below that level then, as well as a full Phase correction, the weakness could be viewed as a Segmental correction of the total gains from 5789 (24 Jun) with a further Segment to come in a continuing Bull Phase 1.

Under those circumstances, a give back of c(70.00%) would seem appropriate equating to c(939) points and leading to c6191 which is quite close to the suggested c6123 for a Phase correction. In fact, to all intents and purposes it would be a Phase correction. It would possibly only be a segmental correction, if the give back of 5789:7130 was fairly limited, say c(55.00%) leading to c6392.

Probably more thoughts on this at weekend!

[nasdaqpat] 04/11/2016 14:16

Added more to L100 but now need to start balancing up accounts so also bought shares in VUKE in one of my wife's accounts...up to 60 companies and with various other Adds stock level now stands @ 58.2%.

Equity market has now partly built in a Trump victory but further downside now looks inevitable and, rather than a segmental correction, we appear to be on track for a fully fledged Phase correction albeit American indices would need to drop much much further.

For FTSE, a (61.80%) Phase correction would lead to c6123 around about next Jan.

[invisage] 04/11/2016 13:49

Swapped PPB for more FTSE tracker. I like tracker as no stamp duty good yield and less risk

[nasdaqpat] 03/11/2016 23:36

FWIW, here are our 30 companies that were Down today :-

AEG, AMFW, AZN, BA., BATS, BLT, BOY, BP., BT.A, CCL, CPG, DGE, FXC, GSK, IHG, III, JMAT, L100, RDSB, RIO, RR., RTO, SGE, SKY, TNI, ULVR, VOD, WOS, WPP & XAR.

We had 6 that finished Unchanged :-

BHRD, BVC, CPI, RTHM, TRD & ZYT.

[nasdaqpat] 03/11/2016 23:27

FWIW, here are our 23 companies that were Up today :-

ABF, ADN, BARC, BLND, BOO, BTG, CBG, CCC, CEY, DC., IAG, LGEN, PCT, PRU, PSN, RGU, SBRY, SDR, SGC, SHP, SPT, STAN & WTB.

[nasdaqpat] 03/11/2016 23:21

Some interesting companies there although if you also stated how many of your companies were Up and how many Down then Gateside and I would have a more balanced picture. We also have no idea how many companies you have in total now particularly as you state you have sold some dollar earners. Which ones?

[invisage] 03/11/2016 21:44

CMCX, DTG, EZJ, BAG, WIZZ, CRST, GENL, RMV, BRK, ITV, DOM, DLG, PPB, IGG, BVIC, all up today.

Luckily I sold quite a few dollar earners a few weeks ago.