Windward Share Discussion Threads

[hastings] 27/3/2024 07:29

Thanks for posting, appreciated. It's looking very well placed and they're retaining that healthy net cash balance ahead of previous forecasts. Further market opportunities are extensive, so with a breakthrough into profit next year the shares should have someway to run.

[maccamcd] 27/3/2024 07:16

From Panmure.. Today's full year results demonstrate the strength of momentum. A mix of credibility from supplying to multiple US government departments and other government organisations, growing maritime regulation, geo-political factors and attractive AI-based actionable intelligence products are propelling strong growth in both government and commercial markets. The loss narrowed to just $1.2m in H2 meaning that Windward is on the cusp of breakeven and a move into profit as the high operational leverage (gross margins c80%) feeds through. We are bullish on the data subscription market and Windward also represents a way to play the fast modernising maritime market. We lift our Target Price to 147p and reiterate our Buy rating.?Key results: Revenue rose 30.9% to $28.3m. The EBITDA loss reduced from $12.1m in 2022 to just $5.0m in 2023 with the H2 loss just $1.2m. The gross margin rose from 72% to 79% providing comfort for our 80-82% forecast 2024-206 assumptions. Cash burn was $4.8m leaving the net cash balance at a very comfortable $17.3m. Churn was just 7.5% in 2023 vs 19.5% in 2022 and comfortably within the target of below 10%. Given the substantial diversification achieved we do not expect churn to spike up again (see our initiation note) for a detailed discussion of churn). The rebalancing between Commercial and Government continued with Commercial rising from 24.9% of revenue to 30%.?Segment performance: Total client count grew from 132 to 201 with the leap in Commercial from 97 to 156 providing evidence that Windward solutions are being recognised and more widely adopted outside of the Government market. Commercial revenues leapt by 51% and ACV grew by 58%. ROW Government client count also jumped sharply from 20 to 29 lifting revenues 25% and ACV 38%. The US Government segment was restrained by federal budget issues (client count advanced by 1 to 16 with revenue +22% and ACV up just 10%. The budget issue was resolved last week so we would not be surprised to see a significant pick-up in growth in 2024 from the relatively modest 10% growth in 2023 ACV. We previously estimated a 5% ACV drag from this factor for 2023. All three segments growth trends/outlook are in good health and being supported by product innovation.?Outlook: With the Annual Contracted Value (ACV) growing by 35% to $34.5m as at year end we remain confident of our 2024e revenues (just $35.1m) and we see upside potential. The Company has confirmed strong trading momentum has continued in the new year and is confident of achieving market expectations. This implies ACV has grown but the Company doesn't normally formally update until the summer when it provides a H1 update. Sales headcount has been increased from 10 to 13 and supports further growth in the Commercial segment where both Compliance and Supply Chain products are selling well. Windward continues to launch new products and its new "Sequence Search" offering is the only one of its kind. The product allows users to conduct advanced analysis of vessels behavioral typologies and trade movements. A Generative AI product is also under development that will allow clients to analyse their own data.?Forecasts: We only recently upgraded our estimates and see todays update as supportive of these, hence no material changes. We continue to expect the Company to achieve breakeven during the year. The only question appears to be whether it will be sooner (during H1) or as expected (during H2). We do extend our explicit forecasts out to 2026 where we forecast the EBITDA margin reaching 18%. See the section below for more detail.?Valuation: The recent transaction in the UK data market involving GlobalData selling a minority stake in a subsidiary for 11.1x sales underlines the value of quality data assets. We maintain our existing valuation methodology based on a cautious 30% discount to our peer group (RELX, YouGov and GlobalData) EV/revenue multiple of 5.6x for 2024. Based on this our TP rises to 147p (from 129p). Rolling forward to 2025 suggests a valuation of 156p (214p with no discount). As per our previous view we expect the discount to peers to narrow as Windward executes. We see achievement of breakeven as the next valuation multiple milestone.

[hastings] 25/3/2024 14:05

Bit of activity here today ahead of the results.I'll be speaking with management again, so will follow up with a write up for interest.

[hastings] 27/2/2024 07:42

Following on from the recent tie up with INTERPOL, we now have a further expansion of the LSE collaboration. Traction and momentum continues, so it should be interesting come the next results.

[hastings] 11/1/2024 07:19

Excellent update, comfortably ahead with multiple customers signed up. Net cash looks ample as it moves into profitability next year in a hot space.

[hastings] 04/1/2024 19:00

I expect that the new capability launched late last year is coming into its own given the ongoing Red Sea issues. Should be interesting to hear more, come the next update.

[hastings] 12/12/2023 20:21

Could be, I didn't attend, be interesting to know how they were received

[darrin1471] 12/12/2023 16:18

Could the buys be small shareholders who attended last nights MellowMonday event?

[hastings] 12/12/2023 15:52

A few nice buys coming through today.

[melloteam] 07/12/2023 11:45

Just to let shareholders and prospective investors know that Windward will be presenting on the MelloMonday webinar on Monday 11th December 2023, starting at 5pm.

Programme:
5.00 pm Stephen English presents ‘Turnarounds – when and how to play’
5.30 pm Company presentation by SigmaRoc PLC
6.10 pm Company presentation by Loungers plc
6.50 pm Educational session
7.10 pm Company presentation by Eagle Eye
7.50 pm Company presentation by Windward
8.20 pm BASH panel with Damian Cannon and Mark Simpson

There will be over 500 investors attending and these are very popular shows with company presentations, fund manager and investor interviews, and panel sessions.

Tickets are still available and if you would like one at half price then enter the code MMTADVFN50.

[hastings] 12/10/2023 07:14

New contract wins announced and trading comfortably in-line for the full year is welcome news this morning.Looks like momentum continuing, particularly across the commercial space.

[hastings] 19/9/2023 15:52

Nice to see a leg up, added a few more shown as a sell as I suspect others may have!

[hastings] 21/8/2023 08:08

Write up for interest after catching up with management.https://martinflitton1.wixsite.com/privatepunter/post/could-windward-be-ready-to-set-sail-21-08-23

[hazl] 17/8/2023 14:54

Do look at GDR as well.
T has it wrong on that,too.

[hazl] 17/8/2023 14:53

There you go ...it's proof of the pudding....the market has spoken.

[terminator101] 17/8/2023 08:27

Since the establishment of the company, the company has accumulated continuous losses from its business activities, and it had negative cash flows.

[terminator101] 17/8/2023 08:25

No need to "beg to differ" It's a fact. They are burning through nearly £1 million of cash a month.

[hastings] 17/8/2023 08:19

Beg to differ on that, but we will see!

[terminator101] 17/8/2023 07:57

Burning through more than £5 million ever 6 months. They will run out of cash in the next 12 months imo.

[hastings] 17/8/2023 07:48

Interims show very good organic growth and a positive outlook for continued momentum in a massive market.Looks like plenty of cash to see them through to break even in 2025, with Broker seeing it sitting on circa $10m at that point.Looking at the valuation WNWD compares very favourably with peers including GETB which I hold. Speaking with management this morning, so I'll add a write up in due course.

[tole] 15/8/2023 18:40

Takes two to make a market - so a contrarian perspective. https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-windward-cml-and-sylvania/Windward Ltd (LON:WNWD) – With Interims Due Next Thursday, The Shares Continue To Be A BuyOn Tuesday morning this leading Maritime AI company announced that it had secured a contract with Peninsula Petroleum.Peninsula is a global leader in the supply of marine fuels, with an international nexus and operations in all major world ports.They deliver marine energy solutions from an integrated supply chain via a comprehensive global trading network.Peninsula performs more than 25,000 deliveries per annum and is a trusted partner to over 2,000 customers in every corner of the globe. Their reputation for transparency, combined with a low risk tolerance, has garnered support from a wide range of stakeholders who collectively acknowledge Peninsula as a marine energy market leader.Windward's Maritime AI insights will be integrated directly into Peninsula's compliance processes via API, providing legal and risk functions with a bottom-line risk score and flagged risk indicators for all vessels with which they are associated.Embracing technology is one of Peninsula's core pillars and in the world of bunker trading and supply, when decisions need to be made within minutes, Windward provides dynamic compliance feedback, which has a significant impact on decision making processes.These valuable insights enable users to make go/no-go decisions with fewer false positives, allowing them to maximise efficiency and conduct more business.CEO Ami Daniel stated that:"As global regulations and sanctions become increasingly complex, it is essential for stakeholders to stay ahead of the curve so they can conduct business with greater confidence.In line with this trend, we are seeing a growing number of companies across the industry turning to our Maritime AI to make better, faster and more informed decisions, and help them mitigate risk effectively.With our Maritime AI solution, Peninsula's legal and risk teams will be able to bolster their existing compliance programs with unparalleled insights into vessel activity, ownership structures, and company risks in real-time, providing them a holistic and accurate view of maritime risk, and enabling them to navigate the turbulent trade environment with ease.This will enhance their day-to-day operations."Windward's AI-powered solution allows stakeholders including banks, commodity traders, insurers, and major energy and shipping companies to make real-time, predictive intelligence-driven decisions, providing a 360° view of the maritime ecosystem and its broader impact on safety, security, finance, and business. The sector analysts at Canaccord Genuity rate the group's shares as a Buy, looking for them to reach 115p within the next couple of years.They are impressed by the expected first half to end June double digit organic growth, while the group's cash burn has been halved.The brokers noted that the 17% year on year revenue growth should accelerate in the second half helped by the growing 23% rate of annual recurring revenues.It is still very early days in the development of this advanced technology group, however, I remain convinced that its shares will start to reflect its true potential for growth and attractive profitability.The group will be announcing its Interim results on Thursday of next week (17th), when I look forward to a good descriptive comment on this year's trading outlook to end December.The shares, which touched 88p at this time last year, are currently trading at around 47p, which values the group at only £40.26m.I see them rising well over the 75p mark quite soon.