Windward Share Discussion Threads

[spangle93] 18/7/2024 12:31

Windward (LON:WNWD) – Slightly Ahead Of Expectations

Ahead of its Interim Results being announced later next month, the leading Maritime AI company issued a confident Trading Update on Tuesday morning.

Windward’s AI-powered decision support and exception management platform offers a 360° view of the maritime ecosystem and enables stakeholders to make real time, predictive intelligence-driven decisions to achieve business and operational readiness.

In a Trading Update for the six months to end June it showed revenues up 37% at $17.6m, while it expects its EBITDA loss to be no more than $1.6m (2023 H1 $3.8m).

Now with a 35% increase in annual contract value to $37.2m, trading is slightly ahead of market expectations on revenue for FY24, and the company is confident of achieving an EBITDA break-even run rate during FY24.

CEO Ami Daniel stated that:

“I am delighted to report sustained momentum of 35% year over year ACV growth, consistent with FY2023 ACV growth.

We continue to grow the base of global organisations subscribing to our AI-powered insights to better navigate the challenges of global trade.

Investment in our data platform is delivering significant benefits, which has allowed us to quickly roll out Generative AI capabilities with the launch of our first Generative AI agent, MAI Expert, in collaboration with AWS.

This is the first step in a journey that significantly expands both our target market and the breadth of our differentiated offering for existing customers.

Our high renewal rates provide us with solid revenue visibility and confidence in continued positive trading, and with the new products launched in 2024 providing significant expansion opportunities, we are increasingly confident in the prospects for Windward.”

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity Capital Markets rate the group’s shares as a Buy, looking for 137p.

With estimates of $36.2m ($28.3m) sales this year and an adjusted pre-tax loss more than halved to $2.5m ($6.6m loss).

For next year they see $43.4m revenues and just a minute loss of $0.2m.

The brokers envisage $52.1m turnover in 2026 and an adjusted pre-tax profit of $1.6m, worth 1.9c per share in earnings.

The group’s shares, after having hit 125p in February this year, put on a useful 8% price gain on the Trading Update and are currently around 106p.

(Profile 03.04.23 @ 37.5p set a Target Price of 47p*)

(Profile 13.12.23 @ 80p set a Target Price of 100p*)

[spangle93] 16/7/2024 18:03

Still a wide spread on this stock. Looks like the most recent trades have been buys at 106p, with sells at 102p.

Nice rise on real news today, let's hope it can hold this level and build with updated coverage.

[hastings] 16/7/2024 08:24

I think its only a matter of time on an upgrade Spangle. Comment from Canaccord "We note that depending on the scope of US government renewals in 2H our new estimates could be conservative as they do not assume any revenue contribution from new deals added in the second half."

[spangle93] 16/7/2024 08:09

Positive update - link here


I'd had fingers crossed that they might have just made EBITDA positive in 1H, but the loss is relatively small compared to history, and compared to cash, and the momentum is positive.

Moreover they "remain confident in achieving an EBITDA break-even run rate during FY24"

With "Trading slightly ahead of market expectations on revenue for FY24" let's hope that analysts can sharpen their pencils a bit

[hastings] 16/7/2024 07:39

Positive TU for the first six months, with organic revenue up 37% to $17.6m. Sales/revenues are running slightly ahead and momentum is continuing and the company is firmly on track to break into profit next year as previously cited. Canaccord forecasts remain conservative, so a notable upgrade could be on the cards.

[hastings] 15/7/2024 09:49

TU out tomorrow morning, hoping a continuation of the recent positive drivers.

[spangle93] 27/6/2024 16:01

The product offering continues to be enhanced during June

[hastings] 20/5/2024 07:21

Positive TU, with momentum continuing and on track to the important breakthrough into positive EBITDA.Canaccord comments this morning that the strong ARR book built last year continues to suggest that its +24% revenue growth forecast may be conservative.

[hastings] 27/3/2024 07:29

Thanks for posting, appreciated. It's looking very well placed and they're retaining that healthy net cash balance ahead of previous forecasts. Further market opportunities are extensive, so with a breakthrough into profit next year the shares should have someway to run.

[maccamcd] 27/3/2024 07:16

From Panmure.. Today's full year results demonstrate the strength of momentum. A mix of credibility from supplying to multiple US government departments and other government organisations, growing maritime regulation, geo-political factors and attractive AI-based actionable intelligence products are propelling strong growth in both government and commercial markets. The loss narrowed to just $1.2m in H2 meaning that Windward is on the cusp of breakeven and a move into profit as the high operational leverage (gross margins c80%) feeds through. We are bullish on the data subscription market and Windward also represents a way to play the fast modernising maritime market. We lift our Target Price to 147p and reiterate our Buy rating.?Key results: Revenue rose 30.9% to $28.3m. The EBITDA loss reduced from $12.1m in 2022 to just $5.0m in 2023 with the H2 loss just $1.2m. The gross margin rose from 72% to 79% providing comfort for our 80-82% forecast 2024-206 assumptions. Cash burn was $4.8m leaving the net cash balance at a very comfortable $17.3m. Churn was just 7.5% in 2023 vs 19.5% in 2022 and comfortably within the target of below 10%. Given the substantial diversification achieved we do not expect churn to spike up again (see our initiation note) for a detailed discussion of churn). The rebalancing between Commercial and Government continued with Commercial rising from 24.9% of revenue to 30%.?Segment performance: Total client count grew from 132 to 201 with the leap in Commercial from 97 to 156 providing evidence that Windward solutions are being recognised and more widely adopted outside of the Government market. Commercial revenues leapt by 51% and ACV grew by 58%. ROW Government client count also jumped sharply from 20 to 29 lifting revenues 25% and ACV 38%. The US Government segment was restrained by federal budget issues (client count advanced by 1 to 16 with revenue +22% and ACV up just 10%. The budget issue was resolved last week so we would not be surprised to see a significant pick-up in growth in 2024 from the relatively modest 10% growth in 2023 ACV. We previously estimated a 5% ACV drag from this factor for 2023. All three segments growth trends/outlook are in good health and being supported by product innovation.?Outlook: With the Annual Contracted Value (ACV) growing by 35% to $34.5m as at year end we remain confident of our 2024e revenues (just $35.1m) and we see upside potential. The Company has confirmed strong trading momentum has continued in the new year and is confident of achieving market expectations. This implies ACV has grown but the Company doesn't normally formally update until the summer when it provides a H1 update. Sales headcount has been increased from 10 to 13 and supports further growth in the Commercial segment where both Compliance and Supply Chain products are selling well. Windward continues to launch new products and its new "Sequence Search" offering is the only one of its kind. The product allows users to conduct advanced analysis of vessels behavioral typologies and trade movements. A Generative AI product is also under development that will allow clients to analyse their own data.?Forecasts: We only recently upgraded our estimates and see todays update as supportive of these, hence no material changes. We continue to expect the Company to achieve breakeven during the year. The only question appears to be whether it will be sooner (during H1) or as expected (during H2). We do extend our explicit forecasts out to 2026 where we forecast the EBITDA margin reaching 18%. See the section below for more detail.?Valuation: The recent transaction in the UK data market involving GlobalData selling a minority stake in a subsidiary for 11.1x sales underlines the value of quality data assets. We maintain our existing valuation methodology based on a cautious 30% discount to our peer group (RELX, YouGov and GlobalData) EV/revenue multiple of 5.6x for 2024. Based on this our TP rises to 147p (from 129p). Rolling forward to 2025 suggests a valuation of 156p (214p with no discount). As per our previous view we expect the discount to peers to narrow as Windward executes. We see achievement of breakeven as the next valuation multiple milestone.

[hastings] 25/3/2024 14:05

Bit of activity here today ahead of the results.I'll be speaking with management again, so will follow up with a write up for interest.

[hastings] 27/2/2024 07:42

Following on from the recent tie up with INTERPOL, we now have a further expansion of the LSE collaboration. Traction and momentum continues, so it should be interesting come the next results.

[hastings] 11/1/2024 07:19

Excellent update, comfortably ahead with multiple customers signed up. Net cash looks ample as it moves into profitability next year in a hot space.

[hastings] 04/1/2024 19:00

I expect that the new capability launched late last year is coming into its own given the ongoing Red Sea issues. Should be interesting to hear more, come the next update.

[hastings] 12/12/2023 20:21

Could be, I didn't attend, be interesting to know how they were received

[darrin1471] 12/12/2023 16:18

Could the buys be small shareholders who attended last nights MellowMonday event?

[hastings] 12/12/2023 15:52

A few nice buys coming through today.

[melloteam] 07/12/2023 11:45

Just to let shareholders and prospective investors know that Windward will be presenting on the MelloMonday webinar on Monday 11th December 2023, starting at 5pm.

Programme:
5.00 pm Stephen English presents ‘Turnarounds – when and how to play’
5.30 pm Company presentation by SigmaRoc PLC
6.10 pm Company presentation by Loungers plc
6.50 pm Educational session
7.10 pm Company presentation by Eagle Eye
7.50 pm Company presentation by Windward
8.20 pm BASH panel with Damian Cannon and Mark Simpson

There will be over 500 investors attending and these are very popular shows with company presentations, fund manager and investor interviews, and panel sessions.

Tickets are still available and if you would like one at half price then enter the code MMTADVFN50.

[hastings] 12/10/2023 07:14

New contract wins announced and trading comfortably in-line for the full year is welcome news this morning.Looks like momentum continuing, particularly across the commercial space.

[hastings] 19/9/2023 15:52

Nice to see a leg up, added a few more shown as a sell as I suspect others may have!

[hastings] 21/8/2023 08:08

Write up for interest after catching up with management.https://martinflitton1.wixsite.com/privatepunter/post/could-windward-be-ready-to-set-sail-21-08-23

[hazl] 17/8/2023 14:54

Do look at GDR as well.
T has it wrong on that,too.

[hazl] 17/8/2023 14:53

There you go ...it's proof of the pudding....the market has spoken.

[terminator101] 17/8/2023 08:27

Since the establishment of the company, the company has accumulated continuous losses from its business activities, and it had negative cash flows.