Wincanton Share Discussion Threads

[s34icknote] 20/9/2021 10:44

Yes increase costs not going to help the cause only increase uncertainty .Have reduced as well.

[volvo] 20/9/2021 10:04

rivaldo, I sold the majority of my shares in August over driver issues.

I used to say right place at the right time, unfortunately the company is still in the right place, very busy indeed, but high costs are going to be very hard to contain.

How can you pay one HGV driver £35k, then take on new drivers for £50k....there will be a long queue outside HR demanding parity.

[homeboy] 20/9/2021 08:54

going off a cliff,

in a big truck driven by a millionaire truck driver lol

[homeboy] 20/9/2021 08:53

sensible decision

as i said a short while ago -

"homeboy - 08 Sep 2021 - 11:12:59 - 2372
exactly, wait till they show those margins being squeezed like a big old squeezy thing
driver wage inflation
looks like smart people are dumping this, big time

homeboy - 04 Sep 2021 - 2373
reckon this'll go down big time, margins gotta be suffering with eye watering driver retention packages"

[rivaldo] 20/9/2021 08:47

I decided to sell out, having had a rethink since my last post a week ago. I had quite a large holding here and have doubled my money, having sold over a few tranches finishing today, so happy to leave some for the next man.

All of the problems regarding increased costs, lack of staff etc have now been exacerbated by the shortages of CO2 and the knock-on effects for food and other production and distribution.

The risk/reward tells me that the upside here has changed for the worse and is therefore limited at best for a while to come, whilst the potential downside has increased.

Good luck all. If the industry-wide problems recede I'll certainly be back.

[santangello] 17/9/2021 12:18

I assume so too.....some of the negativity and gloom mongers seem to have given up, whilst I continue to buy.....do investors honestly think this situation will not be addressed and remedied.....with a lot of the costs of the same already factored into the steep retrace.Each to their own, but for me I am going all Warren Buffett here......

[rogers49] 17/9/2021 10:54

Can't help feeling Wins are over sold.

[santangello] 17/9/2021 10:23

Always nice to see a Director buying.....just like me.

[volvo] 16/9/2021 17:34

More sensationalism but there will be some truth in there somewhere.

[celeritas] 15/9/2021 16:26

Cut my position months back due to driver cost pressures, my mate has already had 2 wage increases and just talks about not being able to get drivers. I'll wait for it to settle before coming back. Moved a chunk into vnet for recovery, it should go past its position pre pandemic this year, circa 160p.

[rivaldo] 13/9/2021 13:53

The current rating imo already discounts headwinds from driver shortages and costs - particularly as WIN have today confirmed that they're trading nicely in line with expectations - which have now been raised after today's acquisition.

WIN are trading on a P/E of just 11 and EV/EBITDA of only 7. Pretty good value considering they're operating in high growth sectors.

Liberum believe WIN are positioned to cope well with any driver shortages:

"The industry-wide HGV driver shortage is having an impact on the group’s operations. However, we believe that Wincanton is better positioned than most to both deal with the shortages and mitigate the financial fallout. As one of the largest logistics groups in the UK, it has more scope to absorb shortages. It also has dedicated recruitment and training operations. 70% of the group’s revenue is covered by open book contracts, under which cost increases are automatically passed onto customers. As an industry-wide challenge, discussions with closed book customers ought to have productive outcomes (given they have no alternatives)."

[volvo] 13/9/2021 11:35

QS yes trimmed my position when the company started to talk about driver shortage in August.

Company has a great position, super busy, BUT the current drivers want instant wage increases, double overtime etc, storm will pass though, but it will hold back would should have been a 700p share.

Watching for the government to allow foreign drivers back.

[qs99] 13/9/2021 10:44

Hi Riv/Volvo

I'm nervous about this statement, marginal TP raise from Liberium, headwinds of driver shortages & 30% closed book cost pressure if clients don't cave in (why would they)....I've trimmed my position accordingly, hope I'm wrong naturally, but I'm just not sure the growth momentum is there to get these shares up to that TP....

DYOR and GLA!
Cheers
QS99

[volvo] 13/9/2021 09:10

Hi rivaldo, yes nice update.

Carl Moore news very good from Clipper but doesn't start until 2022.

The company didn't really see the driver shortage coming, nor the wage inflation, these 2 are putting the brakes on what should have been fantastic growth stock this year. Right place right time, just need more drivers.

[rivaldo] 13/9/2021 08:17

Liberum have today raised their target price to 520p:

"BUY, TP raised to 520p from 510p

On our revised estimates, Wincanton trades on a March 2022E P/E of 11.0x and EV/EBITDA of 7.0x (pension adjusted, using the NPV of deficit repayments). We see this as wholly undervaluing a group delivering medium-term double-digit underlying EPS growth (masked by an increase in the tax rate this year), providing crucial supply chain services to mainly blue-chip customers, with strong and growing exposure to structurally high growth customer sectors. We raises our DCF-based target price to 520p from 510p on higher forecasts. Our recommendation remains BUY."

"Reinforcing Wincanton’s Digital and eFulfilment offeringWe see this as an attractive deal. Cygnia has a strong client base with mid-market retailers and health & beauty brands, including BrewDog, Moonpig, Molton Brown, Revolution Beauty, Whittard of Chelsea and Feelunique. It operates out of four sites in the UK, using a shared user warehouse model. Its services include the full range of online fulfilment activities, along with returns and parcel carrier management. The acquisition is consistent with Wincanton’s strategy of pivoting to faster growing activities within contract logistics. Digital and eFulfilment is the smallest but fastest growing of the group’s customer segments. The acquisition of Cygnia should reinforce Wincanton’s offering in this area. In particular, the mid-market exposure should complement Wincanton’s current strength with larger customers. Having a mix of larger and smaller customers provides good options to fill multi-user sites and accommodate customer growth, including the recently-opened Rockingham site."

[rivaldo] 13/9/2021 07:19

Good to see WIN trading nicely in line with expectations, despite the driver shortages, with confidence in the year end outcome.

And earnings will rise from today's terrific sounding earnings-enhancing acquisition. Acquired from WIN's cash resources, Cygnia has a fantastic set of clients, including BrewDog, Moonpig, Molton Brown, Revolution Beauty, Whittard of Chelsea and Feelunique. Revolution Beauty in particular are about to IPO and are expanding fast, as are Brewdog and Moonpig:

[petewy] 11/9/2021 11:11

What? More? They have about 5% anyway

[dplewis1] 10/9/2021 19:55

Polar cap buying in

[alan@bj] 09/9/2021 10:07

I think yesterday's drop can be attributed to higher National Insurance costs.

[volvo] 09/9/2021 08:08

VOLVO 11 Aug '21 - 18:18 - 2354 of 2374 Edit

Driver shortage

[santangello] 08/9/2021 17:34

Govt to announce a host of measures (Covid testing, qualifications etc) in the next few days.I still hold, the whole industry issues my well be factored into the price.....we shall see.

[homeboy] 08/9/2021 11:13

share price looks like it's gonna fall off a cliff

[homeboy] 08/9/2021 11:12

exactly, wait till they show those margins being squeezed like a big old squeezy thing

driver wage inflation

looks like smart people are dumping this, big time

[matt] 08/9/2021 10:00

It comes after James Wroath, the chief executive of logistics firm Wincanton, suggested a temporary change of rules about hiring European drivers to help the industry deal with the current shortage.

Mr Wroath, writing in The Telegraph, said: “There is no quick fix to address these shortfalls and we and our peers and our customers are fully focused on everything we need to do.

“We know we need to pay people more and look at initiatives such as signing on bonuses and training incentives. But these represent a small step in tackling the structural challenges we face to ensure our country’s supply chain is properly resourced and capable of meeting the needs of a resurgent economy and, in particular, the continued shift to online retail.

“Delivering the changes needed will require work from all businesses in our sector, from our customers and from Government. For instance, when it comes to drivers, we need to make HGV driving a more inclusive, flexible and rewarding profession.

“For too long we have failed to replenish the ranks of our drivers with younger recruits, deterred by unsociable hours and a lack of appreciation for the skill and responsibility required in the role.

“We need more diversity, including greater female representation. We also need creativity and flexibility around shift patterns, and more investment in facilities and amenities.”

He also suggested diverting apprenticeship levy funding and fast-track training for young drivers so it takes less time to qualify.

Mr Wroath warned these changes must be implemented to avoid putting an “intolerable strain” on supply chains ahead of Christmas.

He added: “We would like the Government to consider a temporary relaxation of the rules around foreign drivers to enable us to get over this squeezed period.”

[rogers49] 04/9/2021 10:10

I'm not sure about this driver shortage. I travel a lot on the M20 in Kent and can't say that I have seen any difference. I wonder if it may be an excuse to increase prices.