Wichford Share Discussion Threads

[dnfa1975] 08/12/2009 20:00

if commercial property falls 10% what happens to NAV?

[lord gnome] 08/12/2009 19:55

Directors do like to paint a pretty picture, eh Rubens?

[nick rubens] 08/12/2009 18:54

From the chairmans statement

"This has been a difficult year for Wichford but since our interim results in March we have taken a number of steps that give me real confidence for the Company's prospects in 2010. We have strengthened the balance sheet through a successful rights issue; our income stream remains robust with a negligible vacancy rate across our portfolio and we are making good progress in our discussions around debt and in re-balancing the portfolio. This action has put Wichford in a strong position and ready to take advantage of market opportunities over the coming year."


I've kind of heard this before? confidence,strong position,take advantage of oportunities.

My own opinion and interpretation of these kind of statements as given by most PLC's as we have confidence in continueing to pay ourselves high wages, we are in a strong position having tapped investors for their cash yet again, and take advantage of opportunities likely means give away bonuses and even advantageous risk free share options on top of our salaries.

I've come to this conclusion as one loosing money as an investor over a couple of decades. Maybe I should stop believing what Directors say. lol

[quazie12] 07/12/2009 17:46

Lord G

Correct it is EPS of just over 6p as profits were £9.1m and shares in issue 147,792m.

My thought is that management are happy for revaluations to be on the low side at this stageie take the full hits now and things should improve dramatically from here on in.

Dividend is not too bad either. Here's hoping the worst is behind Wichford now and that they can refi the maturing facility on decent terms. With £100m in the bank they should be in a reasonable negotiating position.

q

[lord gnome] 07/12/2009 09:17

NAV a bit of a disappointment, but otherwise Ok. Can we assume that without the decline in the value of the portfolio, the company would have had net earnings of 6p per share, or is this just too simplistic?
If we can, and if everything else remains stable, we should have net earnings of 6p per share for the current year and a NAV of around 10p at year end.
Any increase in the property values will add to this. A 5% uplift would add approx £25 million to the NAV, or around 2.5p per share. This could be achieved, so I guess the maximum upside this year would give us a NAV of 12 - 13p plus a divi of approx. 0.6p.
Hardly a mouth-watering prospect! Anyone else have a view?

[hybrasil] 07/12/2009 09:12

marureguy
Somebody got the nav wrong. have a lot of these. juicy dividend.

Rising property values will make this very comforting in about 2 years

[masurenguy] 06/12/2009 17:56

Results due tomorrow - current share price at a 20% discount to estimated NAV of 12.16p. Be very interesting to see the latest portfolio valuation.

[lord gnome] 03/12/2009 21:04

I'll live with that mre - quite happily. Although i am more interested in the NAV position. Any sign of a sustained upturn in property prices, even a modest one, will set these racing. WICH is a very highly geared play on property price recovery.

[mre] 03/12/2009 17:28

Asher, I got the 5.95p from Sharescope but it looks like that estimate was before the shares placing in September. They show a projected profit of £10.51 million which, for the increased no of shares would mean only about 1p EPS. That means the current share price is either over value or just right if we assume a PE of 10. Sorry for the error.

[asher] 03/12/2009 16:20

If they make 5.95p per share that means a profit of £70 million, I don't think so.

[mre] 03/12/2009 15:31

Projected EPS for these results is 5.95p. If they make that then, at the current measly PE of 4, the share price should rise to 24p. Of course that's only the theory - we'll have to wait and see.

[mre] 03/12/2009 14:58

Lord G, tightening Bolls could equally mean a sharp move down - hope not though!

[lord gnome] 03/12/2009 11:39

We seem to be in a very gentle up trend. RSI and MACD going in the right direction and the Bollinger bands are tightening which should produce a sharp move - up I hope. Next year will be our year.

[dnfa1975] 26/11/2009 17:57

Views from Dubai: 'The end of the dream'


Dubai World has fuelled the emirate's rapid economic growth of recent years
One of Dubai's biggest investment companies, Dubai World, has asked for a six-month delay on repaying its debts, raising fears among investors about the financial health of the emirate

[gac141] 25/11/2009 18:10

Think we will see it firm above 10p tomorrow.

[hybrasil] 25/11/2009 16:36

price seems to be firming in or around these levels. (i.e9.5p)

[gac141] 24/11/2009 19:26

Debt Position

Maybe these issues are already in place.

Delta and Gamma Facilities


As outlined in the Rights Issue Prospectus, part of the rights issue proceeds
will be used to acquire properties with long-dated leases to increase the
weighted average unexpired lease term ("WAULT") of the assets secured in the
Delta and Gamma finance facilities in order to secure a two year extension on
both facilities from October 2010 to October 2012.


The Company is in negotiations on a number of suitable acquisitions and expects
to report progress on these together with the financial year end results in
December.

[quazie12] 24/11/2009 17:39

hybrasil

yes but they need to demonstrate that they are on top of a few things viz:

1)wault has increased or that they have ability to make it happen
2)once (1) can be satisfied, there is enough left from cash flows for a reasonable divi
3)overheads and property management contracts are being screwed down where possible

If they are sorting all the above then the valuations etc will look after themselves.

q

[jotoha2] 24/11/2009 17:25

Commercial property is still not there, mining and oil is the place to be for the time being.

[hybrasil] 24/11/2009 08:44

I think the results will bring a measure of calm here. The issue that most interests me and I suspect virtually everyone else is the level of dividend.
I have been buying at these low prices. However I have been wrong about almost every stock for 36 months now!

[mattyd] 23/11/2009 09:07

lol santori - suppose it was a pretty pointless post. as long as the markets arent alarmed or gripped with dread when the results come out, i'll be happy

[utsushi] 20/11/2009 14:34

mattyd, the market does not appear to be alarmed, nor gripped with a sense of dread at the publication of this date.

Good luck


all.

[mattyd] 19/11/2009 12:36

annual results to be reported on Monday 7th Dec.

[gac141] 17/11/2009 16:15

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- After more than two years of falling property prices, the U.K. property market appears to be showing signs of stability.

The latest evidence was delivered Tuesday by British Land Co. PLC (BLND.LN), the U.K.'s second-largest real-estate investment trust by market capitalization, which reported the first rise in the value of its assets since 2007 and said it had started making acquisitions.

A positive shift in investor appetite combined with limited stock have helped market valuations since June, the company said.

The performance of British Land mirrors last week's results from central London landlord Great Portland Estates PLC (GPOR.LN), which said that the worst was over for the property market.

Both developers remain cautious about the outlook. British Land warned that transaction volumes remained low and that it was "mindful that the waves caused by the financial maelstrom of the last two years have not yet settled."

British commercial property in October posted the third consecutive monthly capital growth at 1.9%, according to the Investment Property Databank Index, with capital values buoyed by improving sentiment and returning liquidity.