Wetherspoon ( J.d.) Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 09/2/2011 18:02

isis,
I have never said "the ban has had nothing to do with the demise of the Pub industry". My point is simply that it's the law, it ain't going to change and there's nothing you can do about it however much you clog up this thread with your obsessions. Investors in JDW are going to get no guidance or insight into their company from your last few posts which are either about smoking or PUB, a completely different company.

Why don't you create a new thread about this subject where you can moan away to your heart's content with like-minded people? A bit like a 'smoking area', come to think of it.

[isis] 09/2/2011 13:21

And look what happened the following year - THE BAN. You can say we went into recession but we didn't for very long and we have been through a recession every decade and two World Wars which all made very little difference, until of course - THE SMOKING BAN:-



Darlings of the stock market?

8 December, 2006
Pub property prices remain at an all time high and there doesn't appear to be much of a slowdown on the horizon.

As we approach the end of another year (where did 2006 go to!!!) and with the reporting season virtually complete, it is worth considering how well the big pub stocks have fared in 2006, how their relationship is with the city institutions, and what their prospects look like for 2007.

On the face of it even the most sceptical observer would have to answer very well, strong and good. At the time of writing the FTSE 100 is up around 10 per cent over the past 12 months, up 36.5 per cent over the last three years and up 15.7 per cent over the last five years.

With interest rates still relatively low historically at 5 per cent, and even after factoring in another quarter of one per cent rise in early 2007 which most economists are predicting, the cost of borrowing remains cheap.

The other factor worth considering here is the constant increase in house prices. They remained strong in November, rising by a further 1.4% and although the buy to let market has cooled following the recent interest rate hikes, the outlook is far from bleak.

Pub property prices remain at an all time high and there doesn't appear to be much of a slowdown on the horizon.

But back to the stock market, where the pub stocks have had a great year. On a 52 week high-low spread some of the numbers are startling. The current share price is also shown as a comparison.

To my mind, this performance – and their 2006 results – have not only demonstrated what a strong, resolute sector we are privileged to work in, but also how adaptable the industry can be to the challenges and changes thrust upon it.

The performances of these six groups reflect the quality of the management teams behind them and an attention to customer service that would hold them in good stead against any operator in any sector of the British economy.

Two interesting trends appear to be emerging from the results – an increasing switch towards food led pubs and strong like for like sales growth across most estates.

The other interesting issue is how quickly and how well these operators integrate acquisitions. Punch with Spirit, M&B with Whitbread, Greene King with Hardys & Hansons and W&DB with Celtic Inns are all great examples of how to successfully integrate a business and drive out synergies whilst at the same time maintaining a high quality service across the enlarged estate.

So what will Santa Claus bring us in 2007. The City is probably bracing itself for the 1 July 2007 smoking ban and will no doubt be intrigued with the Scottish ban once we have seen trading figures after this winter. We will also get an early indication of Wales' performance before the ban hits England.

Corporately, expect to see more M&A activity and more discussions around Real Estate Investment Trusts – a topic I hope to cover in the New Year.

As we head into 2007 clinging (barely) onto the Ashes, with a Spring Cricket World Cup and, dare I say it, a Rugby World Cup in the Autumn, I feel that the industry is in good cheer and has every right to look forward to a successful 2007.

Geoff Newton is Relationship Director UK Licensed Trade, Barclays Bank

[isis] 09/2/2011 12:43

People can deny all they like, but I and the Mrs. do not go into Bars in the Winter months - that is costing them thousands from us alone. The Pubco's and the Government were clearly duped but still refuse to make any amendments, well I'll be spending my money abroad:-

ASH (badly written) news release - 25th. February 2003 : 'Official - smoking bans are good for business. ASH accuses hospitality industry of "crying wolf"':

"Policymakers should be left in no doubt that the evidence to support the trade just isn't there..." said Ms Sandford, pointing out that with more than 80% of the population favour smoke free public places. Any fall in the number of smokers removing their custom as a result of a smoking ban is more than likely to be offset by an increase in pub goers who prefer a smoke free environment."

It all seemed so logical, didn't it?



c777 23 hours ago
Smoking ban ?
The Elephant in the room is the term I believe.
I'm a smoker like millions of others, i've hardly been in a bar since 2007.

How to lose customers ?
Force them outside .
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JonathanBagley 1 day ago
Thought the smoking ban would bring in lots of new customers, so welcomed it. Bit of a misjudgement there lads, eh? You should have done the MBA module on not being an idiot.

[sper] 09/2/2011 12:16

mmmm, opportunity for JDW you think then?

[isis] 09/2/2011 12:13

Another one that supported the ban and boy did they pay for it:-


Future of Punch pubs in balance
By Mark Leftly
Sunday, 6 February 2011

The UK arm of Ambac, a bond insurer, has hired debt restructuring experts ahead of a battle over the future of the indebted pubs group Punch Taverns.

It is understood that FTI Consulting will negotiate for Ambac when Ian Dyson, the recently installed Punch chief executive, concludes a business review in the coming weeks. Although Punch is worth around £430m, it had debt of more than £3bn in its last annual results.

Punch, which has 6,770 pubs, has already hired Goldman Sachs and Blackstone to advise on a restructuring, while Rothschild is acting for bondholders. Ambac's US arm was in trouble last year, which led to a hit on Punch even though the UK arm is in rude health.

Restructuring experts believe that any proposal will be subject to months of negotiations.

Punch's shares closed at 66.2p on Friday, down 2.43 per cent on the start of the day's trading.

[seahorsel3isure] 02/2/2011 13:04

libertine, those exclude exceptional items - stated EPS per the statutory account for last year was 29.3p

[libertine] 01/2/2011 21:09

JD Wetherspoon Fundamentals

Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
30-Jul-06 847.52 58.39 24.10p 18.5 0.4 +43% 4.70p 1.1%
29-Jul-07 888.47 62.02 28.10p 20.5 1.2 +17% 12.00p 2.1%
27-Jul-08 907.50 54.16 27.60p 8.4 n/a -2% 12.00p 5.2%
26-Jul-09 955.12 45.03 32.60p 13.8 0.8 +18% n/a 0.0%
25-Jul-10 996.33 60.46 34.90p 12.3 1.8 +7% 12.00p 2.8%

JD Wetherspoon Forecasts

Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
31-Jul-11 1,066.26 68.76 33.92p 13.4 n/a -5% 12.35p 2.8%
31-Jul-12 1,138.31 77.10 38.42p 11.8 0.9 +13% 13.21p 3.0%

[seahorsel3isure] 01/2/2011 15:10

600 is 20x last years EPS.

So ignoring the fact that trade may feel the pinch with VAT rise, economy etc and assuming that last years figures can be hit, RBS feels that this is still a growth stock.

Nice one RBS! DOnt put your banker bonus on it though!

[libertine] 01/2/2011 08:36

FLASH: JW Wetherspoon initiated with buy rating at RBS, target price 600p

[jeffian] 30/1/2011 22:41

isis,

This is the JDW thread. It's not about smoking. It's not about cars. Couldn't you take your personal obsessions to another thread? BATS?

Whatever the smoking ban has or hasn't done to the pub trade is all history. It won't change however much you go on & on & on & on &on &on &on &on &on &on about it.

[isis] 30/1/2011 18:18

50 Years on 40 a day doesn't seem so bad to me - he would have died anyway - unlike this lot:-


Celebrity Car Accidents. Famous People Killed in Car Crashes.
No one is immune. Car accidents have claimed the lives of the rich and famous through reckless driving and bad luck. Killed include Princess Diana, James Dean, General George S. Patton, Lisa Lopes, Princess Grace, Albert Camus, Margaret Mitchell, Jackson Pollock, Jayne Mansfield, Isadora Duncan, Sam Kinison, David Halberstam ad infinitum..............

[isis] 30/1/2011 17:58

And why should people be allowed to puke all their fumes from their Cars out?


No answer for that have you? :-))

[gbb483] 30/1/2011 17:56

If isis wants to wave his willy around in public, can we be warned so we can go elsewhere?

[jeffian] 29/1/2011 23:47

jazza,

He does, apparently.

He also doesn't 'get it'. It's not, of course, "you" who are telling "people what they can and can't do"; it's the law. THAT's "the end of it" but he doesn't seem able to grasp it. The law says I can't murder people I don't like, I can't wave my willy around in public and I can't smoke in enclosed public places where it affects other people. I accept that and I don't see why those who wish otherwise should be "accommodated".

[isis] 28/1/2011 07:30

jazza - it is not upto you to tell people what they can and can't do.

Smokers should be accommodated for and that's the end of it - no one would drink with a bore like you anyway.

[jazza] 28/1/2011 07:27

didn't stop you posting it on the HOUS thread...


i don't care if smokers continue to smoke or not....like i said, it's their health they are ruining...i just don't want them ruining mine too...


why not install a "bar" in your own home and invite yer smoker mates round?

[jazza] 28/1/2011 07:19

it's a shame you had to selectively cut back on that C&P job isis..

..why not C&P the bit about the fact that workers in manual/routine jobs are much more likely to smoke?

if the chavs wanna kill themselves....well, they can do as they please, just so long as they don't poison the air of the 79% who would rather they didn't..

[isis] 28/1/2011 07:11

As I have been saying, despite the lies from certain quarters:-


Please respect FT.com's ts&cs and copyright policy which allow you to: share links; copy content for personal use; & redistribute limited extracts. Email [e-mail] to buy additional rights or use this link to reference the article -

Ban fails to stop smokers

By Andrew Jack
Published: January 27 2011 17:49 | Last updated: January 27 2011 19:09
Heavy drinking is on the decline across the UK, but the ban on smoking in pubs and restaurants imposed three years ago has failed to have an impact on the country's hard core of smokers, according to figures released on Thursday.

Some 21 per cent of UK adults said they were smokers in 2009, a proportion unchanged since 2007 when legislation came into force imposing the ban. The average number of cigarettes smoked also remained constant during the period, at 14 per day for men and 13 for women.