Work Service Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 02/3/2014 20:37

NAV
I think the accounts said 93p
+ around 3p due to increase of Creston
..maybe -1p due to NBI drop
maybe +1p due to SWL increase

perhaps around 96p now.....(I havent calculated in detail apart from +3p due to Creston)

say 320k at Hartim for the year....with P/E of 10 that's 3.2M
18M shares. say 17p/share

gives...
113p/share imo

current Western share price is under priced imo
noting
- large discount to NAV
- trend of increasing NAV over last few years
- share price underpinned to a degree by share price of NBI (if NBI were to be worth 75p per Western share price then imo Western share price would go to at least 75p or close)

even though the performance of the Gen. Portfolio in H1 was....terrible. say 1.5p/share missed...its real money....to shareholders, even if not to the City Rd. crowd.

[coolen] 01/3/2014 21:55

To clarify, 6 months.

[topvest] 01/3/2014 08:42

They are 6m numbers not annual numbers.

[russman] 28/2/2014 20:18

Hartim is my only interest.

[smithie6] 28/2/2014 14:55

noting how badly their management of the General Portfolio has done...I'll make some suggestions

- that they ditch the tabacco companies
(getting penalised more and more......I dont see a bright future for cig. sales)

- ditch Danone

- ditch military companies (USA cutting budgets )

- buy shares in Disney, good results....and check out markets for other buys



but first they might need to get someone that is on the ball and up to date with shares.....which imo is not the current porfolio managers/pickers
...one of who is I think 80....

but maybe Mr E.Beale doesnt care that much....since he doesnt own 1 single Western share !

[smithie6] 28/2/2014 14:30

my mistake on the 161k
as you say , that is half
OK, so numbers are better,

not sure if Hartim numbers are for 6 months or 12 months

as an unlisted company I assume it only produces annual numbers.....
and Hartim year end if 31 Dec.

imo not clear if numbers are for 6 months or full year for Hartim.

Hey, we just provided the new cash in 2007/8 to pay for the investment.....why would they give us decent information ?!

b) The info. on directors shares at Hartim is appalling imo.

'Western should say that dir. X bt. Y k shares for yt pence per share
and dir. Z bt. W shares at the same price.

This price is X & higher or lower than Western paid back in 2008.'


-----

London Finance shares are up around 3% today....
someone bt. some....
perhaps someone that knows the above data ?!

[smithie6] 28/2/2014 14:23

...thanks for comments....I'll take another look....

[topvest] 27/2/2014 20:39

I think you have misunderstood the numbers. £161k is their share (before exceptionals), which means Hartim has made c£320k in 6m or c£670k after exceptionals. The £915k is an annual number. I think Hartim has only really made circa. £500k per annum, so I am very happy with this progress. It will also take time to drive the business forward with the new management team in place.

[smithie6] 27/2/2014 13:09

"Hartim....the business is performing well"

and
yearly profits have fallen
From 915k "to 167k "



accounts are required by law to be "true and fair"

how can 2 such contradictory pieces of information be given out ???!!
imo the reporting
- breaks the basic reqt. to be "true and fair"
- does NOT report the material information eg. explanation of reason for large drop in Hartim profit


and hence imo need to be revised and re-issued.
Anyone of the same opinion ?
(or perhaps some of you are big fish ...and you have a private meeting with the dirs. anyway...where you can ask for an explanation directly !....most of Western is owned by less than say 5 big holders)

[smithie6] 27/2/2014 12:56

last annual report

"Western holds 49.5% of Hartim, which has a 31st December year end, and which
generated trading profits before exceptional items in the year to 30 June 2013
of £915,000. Hartim sustained exceptional losses, after tax, in connection with
Australia of £2,809,000. ........."

in these results

"Our share of Hartim's estimated results for the period ended 31st December 2013
is a profit of GBP161,000 (2012 - GBP1,000) after tax, plus an exceptional profit of GBP167,000 due to the release of surplus provisions relating to the closure of its Australian subsidiary. "

From 915k to 167k ...that is a big fall...and no comment or explanation !!.
while the law requires that accounts give a "true and fair " report...including all material information.

me being a cynic about London markets....is it intentional so that friends and family can buy Western shares on the cheap ??

(and that in reality the profit is much higher but has been reduced by exceptional losses due to the Auz. 'misadventure' ?...that is what I think)


Topvest
"Very encouraging!"

...am I missing something !...or do you agree that 915k to 167k is a large fall

(915k profit is perhaps worth 9M ...a large number of p for the Western share price....which is not shown/reported)

[topvest] 26/2/2014 22:00

The Hartim disclosures are better than we normally get from WSE. Maybe they are listening? I'm not sure what you are expecting on Hartim profitability, but it looks a sharp reversal of where things were to me. Very encouraging!

[smithie6] 26/2/2014 19:57

if the Marshalls were not there....and then imo a 'shape up or ship out' warning would work wonders !

the Marshalls are letting them get away with shoddy work imo....

[smithie6] 26/2/2014 19:56

Hi
...but for Hartim dont you think they should give some info ?

and include what the exceptionals are ?

in previous accounts they have stated the exceptionals for Hartim, this time, not
---

imo the accounts do not meet the legal requirement to provide
'true and fair' reporting to shareholders...and to report the main material facts
..including exceptionals

and also report whether possiblility of any other pay back from Auz.

[topvest] 26/2/2014 19:51

Hartim results were very positive in my view as I will still expecting a loss / break-even in this 6m period. Pretty good value at 57.5p versus an undervalued 93p net asset value (assuming Hartim is worth more than book value).

I do agree that the general portfolio performance has been poor in this 6m period. They should be getting the acquisition date for Hartim correct - v.poor. Overall, I'm encouraged though.

[smithie6] 26/2/2014 19:32

As per usual for Western/LFI the accounts are wrong....

says that bought Hartim in 2009.....

eh, no.


it actually happened in April 2008





imo NOT good enough when they charge 280k per year as admin. expense.

[smithie6] 26/2/2014 19:25

news from Hartim

opaque....large drop in performance and no comment or explanation at all !!

while they know the details and reasons

and previous Western accounts said that performing well and high expectations

not impressed by that...

I'd quite happily replace the team.....to avoid this thing happening in the future...
but seems I am the only one....

no one else interested?

, that has a chunk of votes, we need 5% I think to put resolutions to the AGM

[smithie6] 26/2/2014 19:15

FTSE 100 went from 6300 to 6750 for the period being reported....


that Western blue chips only achieved 2% looks pretty poor to me.
Anyone agree ?

Time to change the pickers of the Western Gen. Portfolio ??

[smithie6] 26/2/2014 19:08

"and is working to improve relations with the Swallowfield board. "

perhaps Western should review its results before issuing them !

....most or all of the previous Swallowfield board are gone !....
Western played a large part in that.....and one assumes that Western was on good relations with the people they proposed as new directors....otherwise they wouldnt have proposed them !
---

happy to be corrected if I am off target

[smithie6] 26/2/2014 19:02

Creston associate ??

----

nice to see that my NAV estimate was about right...

93p vs 95p as my estimate

the dismal performance of the Gen. Portofolio compared with FTSE and S& P being the main reason imo.

---
" Our General Portfolio increased by 2% compared with increases of 14% in the
FTSEurofirst 300 index and 15% in the S&P 500 index over the half year. "

at first sight that looks terrible....anyone got a trained chimp with some darts !?

although the overall perf. is good....over last few years the NAV has been grinding upwards....and relatively quickly

surprising imo that Athelney Trust trades at almost 100% of NAV (nuts imo) ....while Western is at 58p to buy (limit order) for a NAV of 93p...big discount....even though the NAV has a good track record over last 2-3 years.

[coolen] 24/2/2014 20:31

The price of the Creston associate is motoring, what's all that about ?

[smithie6] 24/2/2014 12:37

Results 2013.
NAV 82p
mid price 52p, 63% of official NAV

=====
2012
72p
42.5p, 59 % of official NAV


Currently
97p NAV buy price imo
and perhaps 95p mid price

60% of NAV would give a mid price of 57p...which is where the share price is now

however, if value Hartim at 10p and add on 60% of that then it adds 6p to the share price

2012 accounts had Hartim at 1.1M pnds, or +6p per Western share NAV.
&
2013 accounts had Hartim at 185k, or 1p per Western share.

---

After approx. 8th March the shares can be expected to go ex-div of around .9p-1p based on last years interims

[smithie6] 24/2/2014 12:23

96.9p buy price NAV today according to my calcs.
ie. unchanged

(to compare with buy price for WESP of 58p on ISDX, limit price trade, = normal trades)

CRE buy price up to 116p
and NBI down a smidge to 455p

other data used, as before

[smithie6] 11/2/2014 16:07

BTW

NAV using "buy" prices ...to compare with Western buy price of 58p as traded price.

NBI 465p
CRE 108p
SWL 92p

Gen. Port. 3.M
nett debt 200k
Value in Hartim, City Grp. 300k.

result 97p

If Hartim is worth 10p more then 107p
If Hartim is worth 20p more then 117p

to compare with 'buy' price for Western which is 58p based on last trades (limit orders)

...large discount

(anyone can calculate their own value ..and change any of the input data if they wish)