Work Service Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 14/8/2013 10:08

with CRE up to 109p

the Western "to buy" NAV is imo 96.8p

NBI 424p
CRE 109p today
SWL 87p


assumptions see previous posts

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CRE has popped up....will it now fall back...or keep going ?
SWL...a few buys in last 36 hrs....very illiquid share...so a few buys is almost news !
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historically Western has been around 64p when the official NAV has been around 100p
so..imo ...the share price could easily pop up a bit if the NAV can keep rising...
but currently it looks cheap imo at 55p to buy

[smithie6] 12/8/2013 11:07

further to previous posts.

NAV based on buy prices....not mid prices

95.8p

assumptions...see previous posts.
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imo the NAV has had a very good run recently.....due to NBI...

whether now NBI has a share price pullback or profit taking...or keeps going up..wait to see..

[topvest] 09/8/2013 19:32

NAV is about a £1...chill. + Hartim is significantly undervalued IF it has turned around.

[smithie6] 09/8/2013 14:35

95.4p buy price NAV imo...

buy price...not normal NAV....see earlier posts

NBI very strong....will it suddenly fall over....fall back....or keep going ??

[smithie6] 07/8/2013 18:03

94.9p buy price NAV estimate....

assumptions...see earlier posts...

and incl.
NBI 417p (traded)...still edging up at the moment...surprises me
CRE 102.5 quoted....I havent bothered to check traded price

[smithie6] 06/8/2013 15:24

with NAV around 94p-95p...but using buy prices....

(official NAV was 70p at end of Dec 2012.....
so to rise approx. 22-24p to now is a good 6 months...courtesy of NBI)

then imo Western share price is looking too low....
with current rate of rise...and mkt strength recently...
and strength in NBI

then 60% of NAV buy price would give 56p
and 65% would give 61p

compared with current share price to buy of 52p

61p would give an upside of 9p...or 17%...ignoring the spread...
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update share price now 55p to buy

[smithie6] 05/8/2013 16:38

NAV 94.4p

but using buy prices

NBI 415p
CRE 100.5p

today creston down, NBI up...

[smithie6] 05/8/2013 10:05

I see that the USA subsidiary, Western Digital, is doing very well recently....

annual turnover up to 15 Bn $
and nett income of 1.7Bn $

hxxp://www.wdc.com/en/company/pressroom/releases/?release=59c23ee6-f309-48d9-90b9-813b56f0455b

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just jesting of course !

[smithie6] 05/8/2013 09:56

Can ISDX market shares be put into an ISA ?
This one ?

[smithie6] 04/8/2013 22:21

but...not imo for the Marshalls...
(separated gives them the same control...and income....for a lower investment cost to them....
at present, any cash raisings at Western cost them 0 pnds personally and they keep same % control
they control ICH.....a sequence of control...and lots of power at Hartim (a Marshall on the bod.....and 50k year goes to City Group...and appears (I hope !, opaque accounts so difficult to see) in LFI accounts....even though the investment was made using Western shareholders cash !)....but no cash from Marshalls was needed... )

[topvest] 03/8/2013 08:09

Yes, I have both. A merger would be sensible.

[rolo7] 02/8/2013 22:21

I am a fan of LFI nav there about 61p but harder to work out.

[topvest] 02/8/2013 21:55

Yes, it's about a £1 and a 50% discount. No need to update daily, WSE is slow moving - best just await the results. I'm more interested in Hartim, as that's where they could make a very significant return.

[smithie6] 31/7/2013 16:44

update

NBI 405p

WESP NAV....calc.

94.0p

[smithie6] 30/7/2013 10:11

imo....

my calculated NAV based on buy prices
93.5p

(see previous posts for explanation and other assumptions or data used)

with
nbi 400p
cre 105p

[smithie6] 29/7/2013 10:58

NAV today
using prices to buy


with NBI at 390
CRE 102p
SWL 87p

today NBI is up...CRE is down...


is imo 91.8p/share

using 2.85M as GP value...
Hartim at last accounts value
and incl divi paid

[smithie6] 26/7/2013 15:14

todays NAV....based on buy prices for CRE, NBI and SWL ...of 106p, 385p and 87p

other data as posted before...2.85M for gen. portfolio...and calc. includes divi paid out of approx. 126k

92.0p


not much change this week...

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If put other data in....for Gen. Portf. and mid prices or price to sell ...then get a different NAV out of calc.

[smithie6] 22/7/2013 12:05

NAV update


with buy prices
CRE- 107p
NBI 375p
SWl 87p

Gen. Portfolio. 2.85M estimated
Associates 1.27M

I make the NAV to be 91.7p/share

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With approx. mid price values

CRE- 106p
NBI 372.5p
SWl 82p

and same data as above for Gen. Portfolio and associates.

I make the NAV to be 90.7p/share
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For exact value you need to know exact value of Gen. P., associates and take into account divis received, divis paid, running costs etc
(divis rxd roughly cancels with running costs....perhaps one could subtract .7p for divi paid in current half....)
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If I remember I will try to post the NAV according to above calc. at least 1 time per week.....sad imho that the co. is unable to manage to do more than 2 or 3 times per year !!!!!! despite costing 350k/year to run (incl. the 50k paid by Hartim resulting from Western money, not paid to Western).

[smithie6] 17/7/2013 11:03

Coolen
would you be in favour of changing the strategy of Western in the long term ?

..if sell any strategic investments at some time in the future.....
to then re/invest the money in company shares in same manner as Artemis and Black Rock and run a normal portfolio......being able to buy and sell when it suits the portfolio manager...whereas now, if Western sells any shares in a strategic investment it has to beg and grovel to avoid D.Marshall getting kicked off the bod !

and by being on a bod then Western has to be very careful that any sale or buy can not be accused as being due to insider info...and I assume the bod have to observe closed periods when cant sell or buy...
whereas a portfolio manager can generally do what he wants when he wants...as long as has not received any insider info
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Or if sell any strategic investment to do a hand out to shareholders.
..could be as shares, in NBI etc, or as cash...
Id be quite happy to see a wind up...and get 90p per share...versus 45p current sell price. Double.....and shares in any unlisted ventures.

[coolen] 16/7/2013 23:19

I'm waiting for recent poster MarkT to come back to opine on the above bullish analysis.

Like Smithie, MarkT was an expert on this stock. However he is a raging critic of the company's management.

Let's get a decent buy/sell discussion going between the two of them.

[smithie6] 16/7/2013 15:57

this afternoons NAV using price to buy and not mid prices

is 92p imo

"if" assume that Gen. portfolio is 2.85M
and using 3.74 quoted buy price for NBI ...when last traded buy price recently is 3.7

true value of gen. portfolio = ?

NBI inching up.....not many trades...but almost all buys....and highish % are sizeable in pounds imo....a few around 10k pnds

the lack of sells could infer that people have fingers crossed for next news...and not keen to sell in advance...

buy price NAV being of use if one were looking at the buy price of Western
...if one was looking to sell then you may calculate based on sell prices...
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using todays mid prices for NBI SWL, CRE I get 90.4p NAV

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Update
now checked
2.85M is a bit high imo....2.8M be closer (using my calcs)...+6% from previous results....
around 1 week ago....it was closer to +4%

(actual gen. portfolio result depends on "full" portfolio...which I dont fully track.....and effectiveness of any buys/sells...)

[smithie6] 12/7/2013 16:09

Coolen
further reply to your message of earlier...

...as a long term idea for Western imo...would be that Artemis or Blackrock or Lion Asset Mnmgt were the managers .....since the Western managers have had decades and not performed in the past....whereas the std. big fund managers have all produced good results

but in the short term....with the share price at 53% of the NAV and holding a lot of NBI ^ CRE...and that Hartim could be a bonus ....I-d say that Western shares look well underpriced at the moment.....

[smithie6] 12/7/2013 16:00

BTW
if use buy prices for the shares held by NBI...and todays prices...
and 2.85 for the Gen. Portfolio (adding 100k wrt value used a few days ago, so 2.85M)...since the FTSE and USA stocks have recovered over last 10 days...

then the NAV is around 91p according t my calcs imo

using buy price for NBI etc is valid if you are looking at buying Western....or buying NBI or CRE...

I reckon you could buy some western shares at 47.5 or 48p using a limit order...
if use 48p that would be 53% of the NAV

[smithie6] 12/7/2013 14:54

Coolen
by the way
...they are perfectly able to float new companies etc...
could happen one day for Hartim...

and if ever announced....you wont be able to buy any shares without moving the price....and MM will maybe only sell 500 quids worth...