Work Service Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 07/7/2013 19:04

OK....here it comes....todays NAV calculation

"intended" accuracy is to within 180K....or 1p

there is a small error in debt/cash...I hve used 725k as debt at end Dec and should be 808k...less than 100k....about 1/2p per share...not going to redo all calcs. for that.

A) NAV excluding asociates (essentially Hartim) (just cause I did a calc. and forgot it !....so may as well post the data since Ive done the calc !!)

General Portfolio. Up approx. 4% according to my estimates. (roughish, but fairly happy it is between 3 and 5%). 2.65M + 4% = 2.77M

Debt. = (was 725k debt, sold approx. 740k in NBI shares so debt now is around 0.
Movements in dividend is taken as roughly balancing with income from

100k op. profit.
160k divi approx.
so 60k -ve

(using mid prices)
NBI. 2 M shares @ 3.55 = 7.1 M pnds
SWL. 1.8M shares @ .81 = 1.46 M
CRE. 3M shares @ 1.09 = 3.27 M

TOTAL = 14.54M pounds

No. of shares....around 17.95M
NAV = 81p

B) Total NAV incl. asociates.

TOTAL = 14.54M +1.26 for inv. in associates. (from interim results....we dont know yet if it has changed)
= 15.8M

No. of shares....around 17.95M
NAV = 88.0p....possibly 87.5p if adjust better for debt/cash numbers.


...only human....so could include an error....if someone can do their own calc. and if they get the same answer....that would give more confidence.

[smithie6] 05/7/2013 22:31

I might try and do an up to date NAV calc. at the weekend...if I find time...
and post here...including for the Gen. Portfolio....
my last estimate was 90-92p...I think it will still be around there....

done well over last 6-9 months....as shown by the chart...

[topvest] 05/7/2013 16:09

Yes, a good buying opportunity at the moment. Not for me though, as have enough!

[smithie6] 05/7/2013 10:37

BTW
a recent trade shows that it is possible to deal inside the spread....
MM picked up some shares at 48p on 1st July ...and trade before that was at 50p, perhaps both sales...
and a trade today at 50p....with volume being same as previous 2 trades..
when official buy price is 52p
with selling price at 47p I dont think the MM would buy today at 50p...so I think the MM was selling at 50p
so the MM has perhaps sold the shares he bt. in previous 2 trades....

2p buy/sell spread....which is quite reasonable imo

(quoted spreads at various shares on AIM are too high as well imo....
to hold some shares only for 2 hours the MM can be taking 6%-8%....crazy imo...
if the MM makes 2 trades in 1 day using that same capital ...he makes 12-16%...too much...
(if people try to use limit trades in illiquid stocks...inside the quoted prices..with maybe 3-4% spread, enough imo..then the MM will be forced to take them if he wants to do trades and make a cut)

[cnx] 05/7/2013 03:31

Smithie

thanks yours above

re IHT
Certain AIM shares if held for 2 years at time of death are excluded from estates. this does not include investment holding or property holding companies, and shares listed on a recognized stock exchange (dual listing). I don't think WSEP qualifies

[smithie6] 02/7/2013 22:47

cnx
btw
western nav
ref. interims..to dec 2012...intro

72p- june 2012
70p 31st dec 2012
84p 15th feb 2013

90/92p at present imo....as NBI and CRE have been doing well...
Fin. year has just ended.....

so, if accounts do report 90-92p NAV...that is an increase of 18-20p wert 2012....
and as a result the share price has really moved up.....
if manages to achieve 20p in new fin. year then 20p is large % wrt mid price of 50p....40%.

...one clear -ve factor for Western is that it is so illiquid....you can see the list of trades on ISDX website...(but it also means that the share price moves up very quickly on tiny trades, like over last 2/3 months, and vice versa !)

[smithie6] 02/7/2013 22:46

cnx
Western....or any fund on a large discount
I assume you have realised...
with say 90p of NAV at western...say 50p mid price..
if NAV increase in value by say 10% over 1 year.....it is 9p

18% increase wrt 50p....ie. a much higher %

(if there was no discount then a 10% increase would give a 10% gain in sp, ignoring divis, op. cost etc)

various pros and cons....as always

(if you put all your money in NBI and NBI doubled....then you would expect a bigger gain than putting that same money in Western, if only increase in western is due to NBI......but lower risk, in theory, since invested in 4 main blocks at western...if NBI goes down but CRE goes up...then can end up even, whereas if invested only in NBI and goes down ...then clearly you lose money...)

BTW western pays around 1.7p-1.8p divi...increasing in recent years...approx. 3.6% yield...interim and final divi is about the same...

(reminder, with western...imo have to try to buy at mid price..to avoid paying the full spread.....and leave an order to try to fill.....)

[smithie6] 02/7/2013 22:45

Hi cnx
Inheritance tax......what a thought !
I dont know anything/much about inheritance tax.....although you can I think gift X k per year of assets in advance of kicking the bucket !...without any tax I think....7k springs to mind....but probably gone up....
(if you transferred shares by changing names on certs...of over 7k/year..x years being passing on..and not 3M pounds....would the taxman ever find out ?

inheritance tax rules might be more favourable for Plus/ISDX (like Western )and AIM shares...since viewed as risk capital....helping the country...
----

Western can be bought/sold using a SIPP.....free of CGT.....for inheritance tax I dont know...

likely that Govt. will add ISDX and AIM to being ISA permitted soon....then can bed and breakfast any shares held into an ISA

----

exit strategy....I dont think they have any intention to exit/liquidate

Day to day manager is around 50-52 (CEO of City Group than runs Western affairs)..but yes the CEO of Western is at about retirement age....son would be expected to take over.... -ve factor (I would prefer interviews and best candidate)

[cnx] 02/7/2013 04:17

I am interested in this company as a long term way into a "growth investment trust" at a good discount, even at 52p, verses NAV 90p.

age of the directors is a concern, what are the long term plans? their exit strategy?

i'm trying to put together a portfolio for inheritance tax exclusion purposes.
NBI qualifies, but WESP will not. Any ideas on this subject or BB you can direct me too

thanks

[smithie6] 27/6/2013 11:25

....imo the SWL shares have not done well over last few months...due to the results the co. produced recently

(while the 2 big shareholders have been there for a number of years I think, not arrived in last few months)

....which was under the MD that is leaving (well, replaced by the 2 large shareholders you mention).....how much of the recent results were the fault/cause of the leaving MD is hard to know.....but if you are in charge and the co. does not perform then there is high chance that you will get replaced if there are 2 big shareholders that can push thru a vote....while if co. does well you get a bonus or make money from share options....ie. a reward/punishment culture

while noting that over last few years the EPS did seem to have grown fairly well
and paid solid divi
under the departing MD..and some things had grown quite well....but recent results were not pretty, perhaps inferring that the co. had not developed correctly or sufficiently in previous years...

new MD/chairman and the 2 controlling shareholders are perhaps now under some moral pressure to 'produce the goods' !
so hopefully they will be working hard !...(and that shareholders will see some benefit in future...!)

[coolen] 25/6/2013 22:19

The irony with Swallowfield is that since two strategic stakeholders have come together, the shares have become the worst performer !

[topvest] 25/6/2013 21:47

Yes, just need Hartim and Swallowfield to come good as well, but starting to look more encouraging.

[coolen] 25/6/2013 14:38

Yes, both Creston and Northbridge shares have had a good rise. That must be impacting on nav.

[smithie6] 25/6/2013 14:10

BTW
imo the NAV is around 90-92p at the moment

[topvest] 24/3/2013 15:46

Is this a new service for Tudor Rose, or just a product re-launch:



I'm still very hopeful that Hartim is worth a great deal more than the £1m in the balance sheet.

The business is pretty sizeable, with circa. £30m of revenue, and a real blue-chip customer base. Provided it turns around the Australian part it should be worth a sizeable amount in the future. Could well be listed on AIM at some point.

Anyway I still think that, despite the £1m downside risk, this is the single biggest upside opportunity on WSE - could be worth £5-10m over the next few years.

[markt] 28/2/2013 19:01

Coolen
...btw
if you are a director and choose an investment strategy of investing in 3 companies....then you need to

- know what you are doing
- choose good sectors
- choose good companies in those sectors

while for LFI/WSE
the history since 2000 includes
- Sanctuary Grp...into administration
- Doctors Direct.... into administration
- MWB.... into administration

a terrible % into administration

SWL, share price up and down
CRE, share price up and down (currently at lower value than investment cost !!, despite starting in 2000 !)

its a bad record imo

Why ?
imo, INCOMPETENCE.
and no-one is able to make any changes....because the people in power are also the biggest shareholder and have a sleeping partner imo on the register that gives them just over 50% of the votes (same other key shareholder exists at WSE and at LFI)

(while Marshall junior has received 3/4M in pay over 10 years....and expenses, costs ? and Marshall senior has done OK as well, payments made to unamed overseas company incl. from cos. where LFI/WSE invests)

LFI/WSE invests to make money for its shareholders or to make yearly salary income decade after decade for the Marshalls ??

(despite operating for decades, LFI/WSE were prohibited by law from paying dividends in 2009 because didnt have enough distributable reserves.....pretty bad if you've been operating for decades)

Buy or sell WSE shares ?
if take a 20 year view ...the past 20 year data may infer that the professional funds have a much better strategy, that works....and better performance.
Short term, who knows.
---

I see that with bad co. perf. in one 6 month period at SWL and the MD gets the boot as a result, pushed by "WSE" .....whereas at LFI/WSE bad co. perf. over decades and no one gets the boot. Ironic no !?

[markt] 28/2/2013 18:47

whether the shares go up or down....(btw SWL has started heading downwards)

I still think that the strategy should be changed.....
the LFI/WSE investment strategy works for the Marshalls but not for the shareholders.

But, so far, I cant interest anyone in joining votes to call an EGM or put forward a resolution at the AGM.
(a winding up would be good imo, pro rata hand out of listed shares, and unlisted shares to be managed by unlisted co. on low cost basis)

a winding up would let shareholders sell, if they wanted, shares in NBI/CRE/SWL and re-invest in a professionally run investment fund such as Blackrock UK Smllr Cos, Artemis UK Smllr cos.....which have produced a gain over last 15-20 years of X3-X4. LFI and WSE have produced about X 1 !

That difference in performance makes a real difference to your investment.

Personally, I doubt that you will find aerosol and cake companies in the portfolios at Blackrock and Artemis !.

-----

repeated bad luck ?
or
repeated incompetence ?

either way, imo changes should be made at LFI/WSE....but there is little/no shareholders interest in doing anything

I note that neither of the Marshalls appears to have any univ. qualification, not any financial qualification, not any investment qualification.
Would they be able to get a job at Artemis or Blackrock with no qualification ?

[coolen] 28/2/2013 13:12

Does the up-dated NAV of 80p make WSE's 50% share price discount price: 43p) one of the largest of any investment company ?

That said, I am sure Markt will give us valid reasons to continue avoiding the shares.

[topvest] 28/2/2013 12:57

Results out. No surprises really. Hartim now break-even which is mildly encouraging.

[markt] 17/2/2013 15:20

btw
I wonder if David Marshall (WSE chairman and controller of WSE via LFI, which he controls via family trust holdings)

will perhaps be a defendant in the legal cases at MWB/MBE where the board of MWB appear to have to defend themselves against allegations from a large shareholder who has started legal proceedings....alleging breaking of the Company Act (I think along the general lines of ...not operating the company for the general benefit of the shareholders)...see MWB/MBE RNSs for the exact texts

ie. "breached their duties as directors of the Company"

"Pyrrho alleges that the current and/or former directors of the Company who caused or allowed these loans and arrangements to be entered into breached their duties as directors of the Company and that its interest was unfairly prejudiced as a result of these loans and arrangements."

(the operation of MWB has been imo 'dubious'....with some of the dirs. creating a separate company to run the HQ functions ...at a very high cost....and then later stopping it after complaints about the high cost...

and also running their own conference business from the same MWB offices....

in hindsight the tender offer at 3pnds/share could also be questioned....and the loan notes at 10%....partly helped to bring the company into administration....especially the 3pnds tender offer (if the co. had paid down debt instead then perhaps the co. would not now be suspended and in administration)
...I would assume there is also a high chance of legal claims from creditors/banks if it turns out that dirs. actions will mean that they wont get paid their loans back...

[markt] 17/2/2013 14:56

advice....I cant give advice....not licensed.
I merely give my opinions

----
Any of you posters interested to write to
- the company and/or
- the FSA
- the FRRP (fin. rev. rep. panel)

asking for the following

- that accounts give a break down of how the income to the company is spent by the directors, stopping it from getting to the shareholders ?
if the directors have nothing to hide ...then why will they not include such basic information in the report to shareholders

(income or cost of running WSE, 408k + 50k (dirs. fees from Hartim, NOT received by WSE !!! (legal ?!, ), dirs. fees from Creston (paid to where ?)
= approx. 500k imo

(NBI has I believe stopped making any director payment !, interesting imo......they decided that 'something smelly' perhaps ??.)

What have the directors done during the last 6 months to justify the consumption of almost all of this income ....stopping it getting to the shareholders ??
As far as I can see, nothing visible, at NBI/SWL/CRE no investment decisions made.
500k/year to read any RNS from NBI/SWL/CRE and monitor the investment ?

(compare with Gledhow, also on ISDX, costs around 50k/year to run. OK, smaller total value of investments....but it shows that the cost to be on ISDX and to have your accounts audited and produce accounts is actually low)

- is the company willing to reveal the details of the share options to directors of WSE and of WSE subsidiaries/associates ?
if the directors have nothing to hide ...then why will they not include such basic information in the report to shareholders

- will the accounts include related party transactions ?
including
a) payments from Creston to the chairman
b) payments from Hartim
c) payments to/from City Group

if the directors have nothing to hide ...then why will they not include such basic information in the report to shareholders

- are the directors willing to provide open and honest accounts which always report the same key information and do NOT select the information they use in order to put a spin on the accounts ?.
If the directors have nothing to hide then they would do it.

[russman] 07/2/2013 18:50

The price has moved too;we might get the interims by the end of the month.

[coolen] 29/1/2013 20:18

Markt's wise advice to avoid this bunch of investment "managers" has proved spot on to date (well done, by the way) but I wonder if nav might now have picked up enough for even Mark to change his tune -or do we still keep clear ?