Wellington Hds. Share Discussion Threads

[azalea] 02/2/2003 15:06

Hi philjeans

I have tracked GHH for quite sometime, but as yet, it has not reached the top of my "buy" radar screen, as INS, PTD, WLN and AMB have (of late). You will gather from the latter(if not before) that I am significantly biased towards companies with large stake holdings but below 30%. I run a paper list of such and whilst not an absolute criteria, I don't see GHH on it.

I have so many likely "buy" targets on my 'screen'- ones I have tracked over 1-3 years and dozens of others like GHH, that the likes of BWE and AON who for one reason or another, have never registered with me, are unlikely to do so for the foreseeable future.

The current climate is somewhat frustrating, as I believe many stocks will not move upwards until there is evidence and particularly in the results. Hence, for me at least with a limited amount to invest, I am having to wait and see my picks come through, before moving on. That said, the majority of them have been very stable in relation to the price paid, in adddition because they have large stake holders I'm really looking for the end game. That said, I made £200 each on selling SAM(on a bid)ENN and DGP at very near their recent peaks (never wrong to sell at a profit). I still think they are very good buys and I expect to return to them. However, I took the cash to double my holding in WLN buy my 4000 in PTD, plus some Premium Bonds. Last week I raided the last of my piggy bank saving to buy just 3000 in AMB - a very interesting scenario IMHO.

For what its worth, I have written up PTD, WLN and AMB as entries into the Investors Chronicle 2003 competiton, winner gets £2000. So, at least none can accuse me of not putting my money (albeit modest) where my mouth is.

I also hold a smidgen in JVP. DLTA I do not hold, but might well, given the cash and right price. Both will come good eventually, one way, or, another?

I'm not knowingly into risk and quite frankly IMHO, there are so many 'buys' out there without even medium risk, that I see little point in it. Lets hope the future proves us both right on PTD and WLN.

[philjeans] 02/2/2003 11:40

Totally agree Azalea; bought 5k recently following your link with me(PTD) and feel quite comfortable with this one.

Your research, coupled with the large holdings by the successful investment houses, suggest we shall have a good year with this business, irrespective of short term volatility.

Try GHH and BWE also; more speculative but tremendous potential for a lift I think.
AON is rock solid if you don't like risk.

pj

[azalea] 30/1/2003 23:04

Well, with oil prices at current levels and likely to remain so for some time the prospects for WLN should be good. In addition, whether the Americans seize the Iraqi oil fields intact,or not, development/revival of the fields should provide good business for WLN's U.S. based seal production plants. The price has held well, despite the hammering of shares in general; lets hope this proves to be a good omen.

[azalea] 13/1/2003 21:52

Ticking up slowly with 'buys' (albeit small) far outweighing the sells in bargains and volumes.

OPEC's decision to increase production will not make up for the shortfall brought about by Venezuela's paralysing civil unrest. Even when solved (one way or, another) it will take several weeks/months to get production back up to 'normal'. It certainly has not had the intended effect as the price of oil (BBC2 Ceefax data)has risen back up to over US$30 per barrel. This may be in recognition that the increased production will take 4-6 weeks to physically reach the consumers. Moreover, the likelyhood of an attack on Iraq is now reached such a pitch that the war premium on oil is overtaking all other considerations.

[azalea] 11/1/2003 17:32

My expenditure on today's Times newspaper proved to be (for me at least) money very well spent when I read the 'Money' section's lead article by Richard Miles. In his piece, titled 'Looking for investment stars in an economic gloom', Mr Miles gives the views of some experts on the industry's hidden talents for 2003.

His first 'expert' - Mick Gilligan, associate director and head of fund research at stockbrokers Killik & Co, chooses fund manager Simon Knott with stockbroker Greig Middleton. Gilligan, describes Knott as a much neglected manager of both Discretionary Unit Fund and Rights & Issues investment trust. Do the latter two names sound familiar? They should, because they are the very same two Funds that have been investing so heavily in WLN, and currently hold a combined stake of 22%, which I very conservatively calculate to have cost some £4m. Now from there on one could draw a number of perhaps speculative conclusions. However,whatever they might be, it certainly suggests to me that Knott/Greig Middleton must be pretty sure of the way ahead to invest that kind of money; albeit I do not know what £4m represents in the overall amount available to the two funds. Even so, if it turns out that they got it wrong they will not be alone in having egg all over their faces.

The article also states that whilst Discretionary Fund like the overwhelming majority of Funds, lost money in 2002, it was far less than most. Moreover, it is quoted as having topped the smaller comppanies sector in 2001 and having led the pack for most of the time.

I am delighted to have happened on this information, as I believe it adds significant weight behind the perceived value and potential for WLN. This is reiforced by the knowledge that just two financial bodies - First Britannia and Greig Middleton hold sway with over 51% of the shares in issue. Food for thought, eh? As always, DYOR.

[honiton] 10/1/2003 21:33

Um. Worth a look, I suppose.

[pdyke14856] 10/1/2003 14:56

Well its a safe stock and sentiment appears to be good (which is a bonus).
Small retail buys and it depends whether any more institutional buys take place at this price. Good bet, minimum risk.

[azalea] 09/1/2003 20:17

A rise of almost 4% today on purchases (no sales) totalling a mere 11,200 shares. Clearly very sensitive to a tiny volume as they approach 'end of year' followed by full year results in late March. That said, the price has yet to recover to that paid by Discretionary Inv Trust when it bought its last chunk (8%). I fully expect the shares to continue to rise as the results near.

Although I do not see it happening, if the U.S.A. does holds off until the Autumn before attacking S Hussein, it will prolong the period of high oil prices, which can only be good for the shares. Interesting to see the oil price rise today.

[azalea] 06/1/2003 20:58

milacs

On two previous occasions I have had no difficulty selling. My two recent purchases were via my online broker through whom I could only buy in 2000 lots, however, with a phone call to same I got my order filled at an on line price. Today there was a net purchase of 8,000 shares - one for 7,500, so they can be had. Of course illiquidity cuts both ways - if there is a shortage of stock then any significany buying should push the price up and vice versa. It is possible that MM are few and reluctant to trade in large lots on line. I know from buying shares in other companies with very large stake holders they too could only be bought on line in small lots.

As for the the net debt at 106%; again, rightly or, wrongly I have not paid too much attention to that either; simply for the reason that the same existed when Discretionary Unit Fund Managers bought well over £2m worth @ approx 80p, since September 02. Whilst Rights & Issues Inv Trust bought over £400k @ 82.5p. By my reckoning, they must have run a pretty shrewd eye over the numbers and were clearly not phased by the debt in order to put that kind of money in.

What I am not clear on is what sort of manufacturing base WLN might have in the UK, if not elsewhere( in addition to the U.S.A.). I ask because both the U.S. dollar and the pound sterling are falling against the euro, which should in turn provide WLN with a double edged sword in the export markets!!

[milacs] 06/1/2003 15:41

azalea

As I said in my previous post I think there is little downside risk in this one. A couple of things concern me; the shares are very illiquid which makes them difficult to sell, or buy if it comes to that. Secondly the debt looks a bit on the high side. Any comments.

M

[azalea] 05/1/2003 17:02

milacs
I have not been focusing on the forecast for 2003, because I believe that those made since the 2002 Interims could well be made redundant by the subsequent and significant increase in oil prices. My thoughts remain entrenched in those I expressed in my post 31 0f 33.

I was interested to read in this weekend's papers that according to their time table for British forces to arrive in the Gulf and be battled readied we could be well into March. Based on that premise, oil prices should continue to stay high until at lest then, and in the event of an unknown aftermanth of an attack, for some considerable time thereafter. Moreover, whilst OPEC may increase production to keep prices between U.S.$22-28 levels, I suspect that they will aim for the higher end of the two limits. Accordingly, oil exploration companies should have excellent incentives to continue their pursuits and thereby increase the demand for WLN products. In addition, the weak U.S. dollar and slashed U.S.interest rates should provide a significant advantage for exports from WLN U.S. based manufacturing plants. First Britannia may choose to seize this window of opportunity and put their huge 29.26% stake into play.

Whichever way I look at WLN, I find it difficult to see it going any other way than up from this level, with any dip being an even greater opportunity to buy.

[azalea] 29/12/2002 16:30

Based on the assessment I made in the previous post and further reinforced by the latest oil prices I doubled my share holding in WLN, last week. Whilst the annual figures (late March) may not reflect future prospects, I fully expect the chairman's report to indicate a significant pick in orders for 2003.

[azalea] 18/12/2002 21:52

Oil prices strengthening, Venezuela supplies brought to a halt, war against S. Hussein early next year and Discretionary Fund Management building up a stake from below 0.3% to a current holding of 13.53% over the last 6 months, (not forgetting First Britannia's 29.24% stake). I believe there will be siginifcant movement in the share price in the run up to results in late March with a 4.2p+ final dividend to it off. The share price has been stable for a couple of months now at a fairly low 75p (mid price). Bush is as keen as ever to promote oil exploration within the boundaries of the U.S.A. and lessen reliance on foreign imports, all of which should help to make WLN an attractive play.

[azalea] 03/11/2002 10:41

There was some serious stake building in WLN in October. Whilst the Interim results in September were not as good as hoped, the dividend was maintained with little reason to expect that the FY will be any less than before. The subsequent fall in the share price makes the shares (IMHO) an attractive play both on yield and recovery prospects. Despite the fall in oil prices WLN has held firm @ mid 75.5p - a price not seen for some time. An added interest is First Britannia with a 29.24% stake. A further cut in U.S.interest rates next week will not do WLN any harm to say the least. I have bought @ 78p. DYOR.

[dontknowitall] 22/4/2002 08:27

If this price holds, this could be one of those "breakout" shares. Busy morning so far, with the number of trades. Has it been tipped?

[honiton] 21/4/2002 09:32

azalea

Me to. Little did I know that it would be tipped. I reiterate that it is a safe stock with the main risk being expsoure to the customer base (petrochemicals mainly). Limited down side supported by good yield.

Recent price rise due to increased retail investor interest.

No investment advice intended.

[azalea] 19/4/2002 20:19

Well no one can accuse me of ramping WLN. Little did I know (honest injuns) that the IC gave a 'buy' recc yesterday. It was only mid morning today having seen a further rise that I guessed the IC might have tipped them; my hunch was confirmed when I later got my copy in the post.

However, as favourable as it was, the write up was significantly incomplete. No mention of venture capitalist's - First Britannia holding of 29.24%. No mention of Texan oil boy - G W Bush's plans to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil by increase exploration in the U.S.A. with the release of 600m acres of Govt land. His determination reflected by his proposal to explore in Alaska - albeit voted down by Congress.

Any increase in exploration drilling in the U.S. will boost even further the sale potential of WLN seals produced state side. Yes, it 'chunky yield' and prospects must make WLN attractive.

[dontknowitall] 19/4/2002 08:24

Bad news - it's been tipped in the Investors Chronicle.

A dilemma - do we sell or hold?

[azalea] 29/3/2002 08:15

The latest developments in the Middle East makes me believe that the oil price will go higher in the coming months - $28 would not be beyond my thinking. As an aside I also believe the Dow will fall. In addition, I believe that the U.S. will now realise that a solution to the Palestinian v Israeli is not going to be realised in the foreseeable future. With the Saudis refusing to allow the U.S. to launch an attack on Iraq from its soil, The U.S. is reported to be moving its Gulf H.Q. from Saudi Arabia to Qatar. If the U.S. is still intent on deposing S.Hussein it will have to be initiated before a N. America winter sets in when oil prices rise on a seasonal basis; whether it be this year or, next.
Ultimately, I believe the longer term view will reinforce the U.S. Government's desire to reduce its dependence on foreign oil. Albeir an imagined threat, I do not envisage the Arabs attempting to reduce oil supplies and even if it were to do so,I believe the U.S. would turn to Russia to make up the shortfall. If the price of oil is so important to the share price of WLN, given the events outlined, I expect the share price to move in tandem.

[honiton] 26/3/2002 20:49

A safe stock with the main risk being expsoure to the customer base (petrochemicals mainly). Limited down side supported by good yield.

Yes, buy into weakness. Unlikely to make a fortune unless FB has a change of plan. In my opinion the risk premium generated by the yield is insufficient compensation for the opportunity cost of investing in this co. compared to others.

No investment advice intended.