Wti Oil Etc Discussion Threads

[gozo] 17/2/2018 16:05

Orion = Mine Finance.

[tren08] 17/2/2018 15:39

Fairly new holder in WTI. Ave @ 2.5

I can appreciate both sides of the argument. If this were a traditional loan, such as I would get from a bank, it’s safe to say the repo men would have been called in ages ago.

However, Orion have gave WTI a lot of time and patience. Granted, they aren’t a charity so it depends on what terms they want for restructuring the debt. They are charging a massive amount in interest, so my hope is that they will allow a longer time for repayment. This would be better for me as it would mean they aren’t diluting the hell out of existing holders.

Is it better for them?

Guess we have to wait and see…

[leedskier] 17/2/2018 11:29

augustusgloop as you were bashing this, no doubt on instructions from the troll farm, when the share price was half what it is now, why should anyone take note of your posts now?


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This post sums it up on ADVFN

pcjoe5 Nov '17 - 12:49 - 9041 of 21885

LOL Guys - just waiting for Netley Lucas (he still on the go?) & the troll gangs to turn up - inevitable unfortunately....

Nice call on this one though SG - Well done - IOF suffering a minor cash outflow though as a consequence but only temporary if things pan out as we think

[leedskier] 17/2/2018 11:26

There is no mystery about the production numbers or the C1 costs.

They are set out in the January update.

In the last two quarters (the first half year of the current financial year) 8843 MT of copper was produced. Multiplying out the numbers, the average C1 cost of production was $4946 (4105 x $5402 + 4738 x $4551 divided by 8843).

The only question is how much all of that was sold at.

Making assumptions of an average of $6800 a MT the margin is $1854 ($6800 - $4946).

$1856 x 8843 = $16,412,608.

Clearly as copper prices stabiles at $7000+ a MT and hopefully higher and as C1 costs stabilise at $4500, the margin will increase towards $18 million a half year or $36 million on a full year. That is without any of the other ventures coming on stream.

[billthebank] 17/2/2018 11:07

I like that leed skier I like that a lot. Value creators will not be thwarted by these vale destroyers!!!!!!!!!

[leedskier] 17/2/2018 09:25

The City and the Kremlin have one thing in common.

They both have a troll farm.

troll farm
New Word Suggestion

An organization whose employees or members attempt to create conflict and disruption in an online community by posting deliberately inflammatory or provocative comments.

[billthebank] 17/2/2018 00:31

I cant believe it where do these maggots come from.Scam? dont make me laugh!!!!!!!

[mreasygoing] 16/2/2018 20:23

Thanks chaps. Now go and do some research at the weekend.

[11_percent] 16/2/2018 20:15

Indeed.......this is starting to look another AIM scam.

[basquinth] 16/2/2018 20:08

We're all doomed!

[augustusgloop] 16/2/2018 20:00

dixi,

if you were in Orion's place - would you not just take over WTI?

Will they not take the option that is most profitable for them?
What could be more profitable than fully taking over?

They could keep all but the top guy in place - so nothing would change on an operational level.

What the WTI directors want seems irrelevant when they owe more than the company is worth.

They could look for other buyers - but who would pay more than they owe Orion?

[dixi] 16/2/2018 19:48

If WTI are looking to restructure in their favour (after all why else), why would they agree to such an onerous outcome? In fact why would such a scenario be tabled in the first place? Would Orion really want to own more equity in WTI - that does not appear to be their MO?

[augustusgloop] 16/2/2018 19:06

I'd wait until the restructuring is announced before buying.

Orion could easily demand a 90% holding - for writing off 50% of the debt.

If shareholders refused - they could just call in the debt - getting ALL the assets 100%.

[jp2011] 16/2/2018 18:02

Rod Webster sold c3% in Dec/Jan, then Logiman sold c3-4% in Feb and until Logiman finally goes (approx 3-4% remaining) then WTI will struggle to get much beyond 3p. You might as well sell at 2.95p (or more if you've got balls) and then buy back in a penny lower after Logiman sells.

[billthebank] 16/2/2018 17:33

Feel your pain Fozzie. Clearly mms having logiman sales to accomodate IMO!!!

[fozzie] 16/2/2018 17:01

My buys above 3 looking a bit sickly. Down 30% here atm.

[mreasygoing] 16/2/2018 16:33

Market is waiting for terms of financing. Be patient.

[shapido] 16/2/2018 16:12

A bit of a disappointing day, hope it's only a blip, or MMs just playing games. Should be back in the 3s

[leedskier] 16/2/2018 13:29

Mates rates being offered here AGAIN today for big ticket buyers.

[leedskier] 16/2/2018 11:25

Valuing Companies:

The EV/EBITDA Multiple

The name of this metric indicates the formula used in its calculation. The value of the metric is determined by dividing a company’s enterprise value (EV) by its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). The numerator of the formula, the EV, is calculated as the company’s total market capitalization and preferred shares and debt, minus total cash.

This popular metric is widely used as a valuation tool, allowing investors to compare the value of a company, debt included, to the company’s cash earnings less non cash expenses. It is ideal for analysts and potential investors looking to compare companies within the same industry. Typically, EV/EBITDA values below 10 are seen as healthy, but comparison of relative values among firms operating in the same industry is a good way for investors to determine companies with the healthiest EV/EBITDA within a specific sector.




Using that formula, the EV of WTI is its net debt plus its current market capital divided by its gross earnings (i.e the difference between what it costs to produce a MT of copper and the amount a MT is sold for.

If the net debt is $100 million less cash in the bank, for illustrative purposes, say. $95 million + its m.c. say $30m / $34 million (presumed difference between costs and sales per MT on 17000 MT p.a.), the number is 4. The advice in paragraph above is that any number below 10 is "healthy". Presumably the lower the number the better the health.

The FT also flags up this method of valuing companies where debt "plays a big role in the financial structure".

[billthebank] 16/2/2018 10:22

TBH Leedskier I am assuming that those results will be provided at a similar time but I really don't care as I am in here because I am bullish on the POC medium and long term. If I have that wrong then it may take longer to see the share price rise here. Having said that with two mines on maintenance presently a new revolving $10M credit line in place from Orion who still own 29% of the company; The probability of a reshaped debt repayment programme with Orion in place and Berg Aukas WTI is shaping up to move positively. As for Tschudi and C1 costs retained at $4500 then nameplate production of 17K tonnes/annum will produce revenue before finance (Of course if you want to be really bullish look at the possibility of 20k tonnes!!!):-

(7500-4500)X17000= $51M

(8000-4500)X17000=$59.5M

(8500-4500)X17000=$68M

Present Market Cap £22M!!!!!!!!!!!!

[billthebank] 16/2/2018 10:22

TBH Leedskier I am assuming that those results will be provided at a similar time but I really don't care as I am in here because I am bullish on the POC medium and long term. If I have that wrong then it may take longer to see the share price rise here. Having said that with two mines on maintenance presently a new revolving $10M credit line in place from Orion who still own 29% of the company; The probability of a reshaped debt repayment programme with Orion in place and Berg Aukas WTI is shaping up to move positively. As for Tschudi and C1 costs retained at $4500 then nameplate production of 17K tonnes/annum will produce revenue before finance (Of course if you want to be really bullish look at the possibility of 20k tonnes!!!):-

(7500-4500)X17000= $51M

(8000-4500)X17000=$59.5M

(8500-4500)X17000=$68M

Present Market Cap £22M!!!!!!!!!!!!

[leedskier] 16/2/2018 09:33

This time we will see what the significantly higher copper prices adds to the mix.

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In 2016 the H2/2015 Interim Results were posted on 1 March. Who knows when they will appear this time.

[leedskier] 16/2/2018 09:32

Financial Summary

-- Revenue of US$37.8m for the period compared to US$15.9m for the same period last year.

-- Loss before tax of US$11.3M includes finance charges of US$5.2m and foreign exchange gains of US$0.6m.

-- Gross loss for the period of U$$4.1m leading to an operating loss of US$6.7m including an impairment of US$1.3m
on China Africa Resources plc.

-- As at 31 December 2016, the Company had cash reserves of approximately US$8.7m.