Wti Oil Etc Discussion Threads

[cf456] 12/1/2018 10:36

Chunky delayed 1.28 million buy from earlier seems to be what has kicked things off again.

[cf456] 12/1/2018 09:53

"If you return cash to Orion 3 years after payment start, just do some FCF calcs on differing C1 & Copper levels over the remaining LOM. I'm not including Central Ops or Zambia of course. Hence position size, totally long term positioning & call on radical upside scope"

[cf456] 12/1/2018 09:52

"#WTI Clearly, there's a regulatory & compliance piece *presently*but their backing has been clear to date & came through at agm. Actions have all spoken louder ($10m loan,not taking up hedge options,bringing in int expertise, sanctioning Zambian move-they like it/have been there)"

[cf456] 12/1/2018 09:14

"#WTI Stunned by pullback but know plenty are buying it. I hope to still be tweeting about this in many years from now. I certainly will be if Copper continues to trend higher !"

[gozo] 11/1/2018 16:02

So you sold and don't want to buy again......we get it!

[swinsco] 11/1/2018 15:53

The share price has made good gains of late. Would like to think the price will stay above a penny - will top up if it does.

[mreasygoing] 11/1/2018 14:46

He/she wants to be.

[maverick247] 11/1/2018 14:42

Are you in this stock augustus?

[augustusgloop] 11/1/2018 14:02

maverick

I am also a copper bull.

But, I calculated that last year the Copper price would have had to rise by 43% for WTI to make a profit.

For quite a while - all of the benefit of any copper rise affecting WTI will be soaked up by Orion.

[maverick247] 11/1/2018 08:39

Augustus comes down to whether you are a copper bull or not i am

[augustusgloop] 10/1/2018 18:30

leedskier

Because KAZ make stonking profits
whilst WTI make stonking losses.

[mreasygoing] 10/1/2018 17:20

He inhabits ADVFN as a good bellwether that a share price is about to rise sharply.Pay no attention, except that I've just mentioned.

[leedskier] 10/1/2018 13:38

augustusgloop

2 years ago KAZ's share price was 100p (it is 900p today)giving it a market capital of £446,840.

Its debt was some £2.5bn.

Today its market cap is £4.1bn.

Its debt is still £2.5bn and what is more the Company recently announced it intends to raise and invest a further £1.2bn.

The rise in its share price as it is poised to return to the FTSE100 no doubt reflects the higher price of copper and its low production costs.

No-one seems to be in the slightest bit concerned about its borrowings.

Why is it different in the case of this Aim listed company?

Compared to KAZ's borrowings, WTI borrowings are loose change.

Orion do not seem to be concerned, why are you?

Especially as you are not an investor.

[dixi] 10/1/2018 12:51

It's a punt :-)

[augustusgloop] 10/1/2018 12:27

I can't see the reason for all the optimism here.

From the accounts: "The Group incurred a loss before tax of US$41.1m during the year ended 30 June 2017 and, at that date, had net current liabilities of US$112.8m"

------------------

Now - I certainly think that the loss rate has reduced substantially over the last 6 months, but they are undoubtedly still loss making - and would have been through H1 (perhaps losing about $8m). Their asset position is thus going to be WORSE than the dire state that it was in on 30th June 2017.

The underlying value of their mine assets has no doubt increased (as per what somebody else would be willing to pay for them) since June 30th (because of the copper price increase) --- but this is irrelevant to the value of WTI, unless they somebody buys the assets.

I believe that the value attributed to the mining assets in the last accounts is far above what anybody would realistically be willing to pay - for properties that have proved incapable of generating a return.

[cf456] 10/1/2018 11:57

Copper price firming up again today. Ready for another surge up?

[cf456] 10/1/2018 10:30

"#WTI Yes, from the current market cap it maybe offers the largest % upside *in a strong Copper environment*. Was positive to learn yesterday that some of the worlds best (inc consultants to Escondida)are engaged with the Tschdui turnaround effort. Orion playing a big part in that"

[mattjos] 10/1/2018 00:15

That may or may not be true augustusgloop but, they do seem very much to have Orion on their side & Orion have significant reason to see them succeed, are being very obliging & have the necessary firepower.

The in-ground asset value of Tschudi & Central Ops & Kitumba dwarf the WTI mkt Cap. Someone will get it out the ground & Weatherly have a very significant operation that is gradually doing just that .... do you propose an alternate to do so?

Kitumba would not have even been considered were Orion not significantly committed for the long term.

Once the Logiman stock is taken up the mkt cap should begin to gain some more traction

I suspect I have a very different investment timeline to you on this company. I fully accept that it will be 2020 before a decent valuation (10p+) is reached

[augustusgloop] 09/1/2018 23:12

WTI need a persistently stronger copper price and many many quarters of sustained higher levels of production before they can be considered as anything but a zombie company - run just to pay back Orion.

It is highly doubtful that they are anywhere near profitable at present, never mind being capable of generating enough cash flow to significantly pay down Orion.

[mattjos] 09/1/2018 22:54

Forest, actually think they have a decent stab at climbing out the mire now. will be a long, long slog but, the bigger prize still on offer & they have Orion on board now.
Will pm you .. have a cunning plan :-)

[mattjos] 09/1/2018 20:00

Let’s not get carried away please.
Some here will remember just how much negative influence a bad wet season can have. Today’s RNS clearly flags up that risk.
Similarly, production has temporarily benefited from short-term influx of oxide ore which is more amenable to the heap leach process.
Logiman are selling but, to the best of my knowledge, we do still have an ongoing bun-fight with them, do we not?
Kitumba needs $400m to develop ... white apart from the cash requirement, we only have one decent mining CEO on-board. The previous were hopeless.
This needs to regain and hold on a weekly basis over 2p (chart wise) to convince me it’s genuinely recovering. All that said, we do seem to be a foot further back from the edge than we were 12 months ago.

[leedskier] 09/1/2018 19:49

From the very informative AGM notes, I have the impression that rather than chase diminishing returns by targeting 20K MT at Tschudi (and bringing Central Operations back online), the BoD would rather invest the capital in acquiring Kitumba and quickly getting it producing. Presumably Orion are very happy with that since the sooner Kitumba is producing the more secure it's investment is.

Logiman had some 90 million shares in late November 2017.



At a couple of million a day those shares could be sold before the completion of the proposed acquisition. If the reason is as stated above, namely Logiman need to sell, they will presumably want to do so as quickly as the market facilitates that. The total value of the shareholding is now only circa £1.1 million. A modest sum in the great shape of things, especially if there are buyers. It would certainly explain why the House Brokers have not updated the price target.