Waterlogic Share Discussion Threads

[nurdin] 03/3/2007 16:18

Which tipsheet if I may ask?

[dimotane] 03/3/2007 16:15

Tipsheet rec today so reckon the small buyers will be out in force on Monday a.m..Watch out for the mark up before the open.

[hattori_hanzo] 03/3/2007 13:13

We are agreed on those points.

However, I seem to recall some figures that showed there is usually an initial slowdown felt by the home improvement sector following any severe or long lasting correction in property prices. I think that's what happened in the early 90s to the likes of B&Q, etc.

However, I can't find those figures, so I'm not 100% sure.

[masurenguy] 03/3/2007 13:04

Well the buoyancy of home improvement is also due to the decling volume of house sales in the UK over the past year (another factor which has pushed prices up).

Those who can't afford to move spend the considerable amount of money that they save on home improvements and fitted kitchens virtually come top of that list. Those who can't get the price that they want or who seek to update their property in order to ask a higher price are also investing in home improvements.

It's a win/win for the well managed home improvement companies and it also makes them pretty immune from the UK property market downturn, which is now clearly begining to emerge on the horizon !

[hattori_hanzo] 03/3/2007 12:52

I've got WTL in my mon list.

The trouble is the ridiculous NMS. They are very illiquid, so the price moves around in a lumpy manner, which can sometimes explain the nasty retracements.

However, I have to say that this sudden retracement into a new downtrend (the trend IS your friend, until it ends) smells like the MMs have got wind of something nasty. The fall in price seems even more incongruous given the bouyant sales of their competitors.

Conclusion: You're either very brave or very foolish to buy now...or both!

On a general note, I believe the shocking housing figures released in the US last week, combined with the collapse in the sub prime market (20 lenders have gone bust in the last 6 months...20!) are a precursor to what is likely to happen here, sooner or later.
It's even more frightening when you consider, on a like for like basis, that the average US home is 65% cheaper than the average UK home!

Now the positives:

Of course, it's not quite a like for like basis, given the vast amount of land available in the US.

Furthermore, one of the oldest truisms in this country has always been & always will be:
"Property is the basis of all wealth in this country".

NB: Interestingly, history shows that home inprovement companies continue to do quite well in a housing recression, as people tend to use their spare cash to improve their homes to add value and as a form of 'therapy' in difficult times because, even in a housing recession, people tend to still spend their spare money on their homes.

Nevertheless, the collapse in the US housing market will have serious ramifications for our property market, sooner or later, imho. EVERY bull market comes to end eventually.

[cockneyrebel] 03/3/2007 12:43

Someone sold 28K. If punters are going to sell at anyprice in this market then they get walloped and short term we get walloped too. But it creates a nice buying opportunity imo - hence I got another 5K yesterday (It was very late so it will show Monday as a "H" trade.

Even if these were to miss forecasts by 30% this year they are cheap still imo, after the bored have sold it down. However I don't expect them to miss. Lack of newsflow is the only reason punters get bored but this isn't a newsflow co. However it might be soon - read this from the interims.

"In 2007, Waterline will once again be exhibiting throughout the country with our Showcase Programme. The team's strategy is to meet as many trade customers as possible over six weeks, in six venues through April and May. The Board would welcome any shareholders wishing to visit us at our road show venues.".

Think I'll see if I can get to one of these if they have something local. Bet some news drifts out from these too.

CR

[alansmith23] 03/3/2007 12:34

what happened late on friday then? Shake?

Will top up on any further dips

[cockneyrebel] 03/3/2007 12:28

Well we all have our own strategy slinky, your's might be right, who knows?

I just find these one of the very cheapest stocks I can find. Of the kitchen co's I can find, Smallbone are reporting strong business, Omega International are also reporting strong business to their results in Sep and the shares have hit a new high last week.

The kitchen fitters I know are still rocked off their feet.

Builders are still busy from what I see from Persimmon and the like.

All I posted a few posts up too and a PE of 6, and the growth forecast is 60% this year and 33% for the coming year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CR

[2slinky] 03/3/2007 10:18

CR- Was just trying to make the point that not everyone selling is "scared" (too early to judge on the stupid!). As you know, this share has a tendency to overshoot, either up or down and could just see a fall ahead.

Stepped out near the top of this downtrend to top up in another share I've held for a while and where I was fairly sure of a short term gain.

Is not my usual strategy but this week has thrown up some exaggerated movements and I was compelled.

Different story at this level though!

[cambium] 02/3/2007 18:05

let the trend be your friend!

[cockneyrebel] 02/3/2007 17:37

Hmm, GNG up 200% in a month or so. Not sure I'd be selling WTL to chase that here - tend to find chasing the risers ends up biting tour butt imo.

WTL has fallen on hideously low volume - the fwd PE is below 6, the yield is 4% and the company has a long running record of profitable growth, run by the same management
.

In July last year the FD thought these worth of buying 300K @ 60p after the results. They have already done 3.8p eps in H1 - if they just duplicated that in H2 the PE is single digit but they have acquisitional growth to kick in too.

£85m turnover, £10m market cap.

Already said at the interims they see the full year in line.

The divi comes all at the year end so the full divi is yours too from here at year end, expected to be 3p so your net buying price today is just 75p!

Net assets of 59p a share have probably increased over the second half too!

Absolutely screaming cheap imo.

CR

[2slinky] 02/3/2007 17:03

Some of the "idiot" selling is mine- other short term opportunities been thrown up this week so sold here and bought GNG on a dip, up 33%- trying to make up some losses on SMC! Will be back here soon, price permitting.

[cockneyrebel] 02/3/2007 16:43

'be greedy when everyone is frightened and frightened when everyone is greedy' - Buffet

[cockneyrebel] 02/3/2007 16:27

Just got another 5K

cheers seller!

CR

[cockneyrebel] 02/3/2007 16:19

obviously a right winker in this stock determined to sell in a weak market.

Might be the buy of a lifetime here imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 26/2/2007 10:16

Is that braindead or what?

Smallbone results suggest the market is good for kitchen suppiers and two punters sell 2K each here and hit the price?

Great buying opporties from tight stocks like this when there's sellers for selling sake imo. If you can think for yourself that is.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 26/2/2007 07:42

Smallbone very upbeat today - must be positive for WTL

CR

[cockneyrebel] 14/2/2007 11:57

I'm pretty sure they'll meet too - which puts them on a fwd PE of 7.5. 12p eps forecast next year lill look easy if they meet this years estimates as they will have nearly done 6p eps in H2 alone and there is no seasonality with trading.

CR

[keane16] 14/2/2007 11:39

it would not take to many more buys for this to breakout

[cwa1] 14/2/2007 10:49

Yup. Off we trot again. Good stuff:-)

[nurdin] 14/2/2007 09:39

On the move..I been adding too.Cant believe how cheap these are and fail to understand why they are being ignored by the market.Think these will be properly rated when the penny drops...possibly after the results which I know will be atleast in-line.. :o)

[cockneyrebel] 12/2/2007 20:57

quite possibly imo.

Down today on a 2.2K sell - that's the sum of it lolol!

CR

[keane16] 12/2/2007 20:53

I wonder if there will be a trading statement between now and the results. They did in September prior to the interims but didn't prior to the full year results last year

[cockneyrebel] 09/2/2007 11:58

obviously some stale bull around that is intent on selling for whatever reason. I'm happy to keep adding. The problem with small caps is that occasionally they get out of tilt with sensibility, up or down. For all the big dips there are big rises too - just need to enjoy those and take the short term dips on the chin imo - nice buying opportunity tho

CR