Water Intelligence Share Discussion Threads

[shanklin] 05/9/2018 16:06

H1 results next week. If one believes this to be a multi-year growth story, there seems no reason to sell... IMHO

[bad speculator] 05/9/2018 15:54

It feels to me like a larger sell order in the background - and with this being a rather illiquid share, the price goes down.I've started buying today as with longer term horizon I see this as a great top up opportunity.

[villarich] 05/9/2018 15:44

Any thoughts on what's going on here? Big drop on high volume with no news. Has it just got ahead of itself over the last few weeks and this is a cooling off?

[from8to800] 05/9/2018 07:40

Aaaaaand we're basing. Hold on in there folks. It'll be a few weeks before this sees new highs.

[someuwin] 04/9/2018 13:09

Lots of talk in today's papers about the water industry spending more on cutting leaks.

All good for WATR.

"English water firms vow to cut bills by up to 10.5% and tackle leaks..."

[someuwin] 29/8/2018 13:14

Bought a few more.

[silverfern] 28/8/2018 07:48

Prospective p/e following the drop is now around 25. I think current business and prospects comfortably justify that ratio.

[silverfern] 23/8/2018 11:10

Good to see some retracement every no and then. But if you were happy to hold at 440p, presumably these prices should tempt you to add.

[auldmart] 23/8/2018 09:38

The share price has sprung a leak. It was inevitable there would be a pull back sooner or later.

[shanklin] 23/8/2018 09:27

Blimey, somebody's raining on our parade :-(

[silverfern] 17/8/2018 14:46

NOt such great a great shake or volume and maybe a bit of sheep chasing. Stock market generally looking a bit tired today.

[auldmart] 17/8/2018 14:04

I wonder what's going here today? There's a lot of selling on quite high volumes. Could it be a tree shake around the 400p price.

[silverfern] 17/8/2018 13:18

time to reload I think

[effortless cool] 12/8/2018 09:18

My H1 projections held up pretty well against the figures in the recent H1 trading statement. Small shortfalls in Franchise Royalty Income and Corporate-Owned Stores Revenue were more than offset by a surplus in International Corporate Activities; Franchise-Related Activities was spot-on.

Revising my projections to reflect this latest information, I have shaded my 2018 estimate up to $24.0m (was $23.9m), representing a significant excess over broker consensus of $21.7m (per Stockopedia).

Profit is rather harder to forecast on the available information, but I expect it to be at least in line with the $1.7m broker consensus.

[masurenguy] 31/7/2018 13:51

Graham Neary likes Water Intelligence!

"This US-based leak detection business is another example of a High Flyer (aren't these categorisations very useful?) For the uninitiated, that means high quality and high momentum, but little value, at least as value is traditionally understood. Paul last covered it with the share price at 200p, in February. So congratulations to anyone who has earned a 100% return so quickly, by holding it since then. Some of you have probably been holding it for a lot longer than that, and have a much bigger return! The first time I wrote about this share, in 2016, it was priced at 70p.

Ok, let's see how things are going according to the latest update. Trading is comfortably in line with expectations, a phrase which can be interpreted to mean that we have a good chance to see an earnings beat later in the year. The top line and bottom line are both mentioned in this regard, so we have the perfect combo of strong sales and strong margins. We are on track to meet the goals set forth in the Chairman's Statement for the 2017 Annual Report released earlier this year: passing $20m in annual sales during 2018 and passing $25m in annualized sales in the near-term.

The capital base grew in March with an equity fundraising - when we have more detailed numbers for 2018, I will do my usual checks for the returns generated on this increased base. I expect they will come back very positive. Excitingly, the company cites "strong worldwide demand" for its products, and expresses the wish to go international with a "scalable business model". Its international business is active in the UK, Australia, Ireland and Romania. If the strategy succeeds, I am confident that Water Intelligence will prove to be worth a lot more than its current market cap, despite the high rating.

H1 PBT is up almost 50% year-on-year, to $1.25m. So it's understandable that the share price has gone on a tear. Holders don't have any reason to cash in their chips, with a company performing so well and looks to have so much potential. I think the very high rating is probably justified."

[someuwin] 31/7/2018 07:21

Fantastic.

Firing on all cylinders.

[silverfern] 31/7/2018 06:11

That's a cracking update. Revenue up 39% and profits up 48%

[silverfern] 18/7/2018 14:11

well I am wondering whether the persistent buying, not huge amounts mind, does signal that some business development announcement is forthcoming. WATR could get a market cap of £100m readily if it delivers additional growth and its strategy supports that ie not one offs. Right now I see that target as this time next year, but who knows.

[from8to800] 18/7/2018 13:51

Gift that keeps on giving... Any particular valuations in mind from anyone?

[silverfern] 09/7/2018 14:25

18-24 months ago WATR Would be lucky to trade 5000 shares in a week. VOlume has certainly improved; people are buying in o the strategy. First test will be the next update/results which will not I think do anymore than show progress with that strategy. BUt they seem to be getting into the swing of making deals and this year I expect (but with no insider info) a biggie.

[masurenguy] 09/7/2018 07:37

The unabated rise continues - now up 133% over the past 7 months ! :o)

[shanklin] 26/6/2018 12:39

EC

Thank you for the link to the WATR thread on Stockopedia. I had missed your most recent post having been very unwell and virtually energy free during the last three days of last week.

I will take a look. As you told Patrick deS at the AGM, it would be helpful if WATR provided more granular information capable of being analysed.

All the best, Martin

[effortless cool] 26/6/2018 12:14

Martin,

My model is producing a valuation of 330p at present, but I haven't posted anything yet because I don't have much faith in it. Particular challenges come from the absence of like-for-like segmental revenue data and segmental cost of sales figures. I have asked PDS if these could be included in results in future.

The bottom line for me is that I have built up a sizeable holding and am very happy with how the company is progressing, so am not a seller and may buy more on weakness.

On the modelling side, I'm trying to get a good handle on revenue projections which will at least give me a solid foundation to build a valuation on. I did a detailed post on my numbers on Stockopedia in a so far unsuccessful attempt to provoke some discussion.

That was the last post on this thread:

[someuwin] 26/6/2018 09:17

finnCap today raises WATR target price from 309p to 344p

[shanklin] 26/6/2018 08:48

EC

Your post 113 from 25-Apr-18 mentions that:

"I'm going to wait until the results for 2017 come out next month to revise my model, but I am confident that my valuation will be going up."

Any chance please that you could share what your model is currently saying about WATR. It would be nice to think that this will prove as good an investment as LOQ!!

Thank you, Martin

P.S. Added a few after today's RNS.