Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[eezymunny] 08/9/2020 16:48

Not hard to imagine H1 will be loss-making. Shire doesn´t make much if anything in H1 and Indulgence probably loss-making (?) while they sort it out. We have those holding co overheads as well of course.

I´m mildly optimistic that the uneducati will hate the H1 results.

[scorpio51] 08/9/2020 14:06

Also bear in mind that Shire's true value is NOT reflected in VLE's NAV,with almost nothing in for Indulgence. It will be interesting,as more businesses become distressed,whether our cash pile will be put to use. If not, a further tender must be forthcoming.

[scorpio51] 08/9/2020 14:01

Shire's supermarket sales should continue to do well,especially as we are likely to see further lockdowns and therefore a return to eating pies at home. Hopefully we will also see progress on Indulgence.

[scorpio51] 08/9/2020 13:57

Last year's 26 Sept is the best guide. No date set yet on VLE's website.

[jamessmith23] 08/9/2020 11:46

Do we have a date for the results yet? Reading through the full year results from May I'm not expecting fireworks as the foodservice revenue will have been significantly reduced. Seems to be a good long term hold, but not sure what will happen over next few months.

[rivaldo] 04/9/2020 08:47

A few more small buys already today. Good to see the spread is down to a very small 40p at 1500p-1540p for a change.

[rivaldo] 03/9/2020 16:11

Approaching £50,000 of buys today. Interesting....:o))

The interims will be out towards the end of this month.

[rivaldo] 17/8/2020 08:38

Cranswick - the food producer, including pies - today reported their Q1 trading to the end of June, and stated they would be ahead of expectations for the year to March '21 after "exceptional" demand in the last quarter due to the shift to eating at home.

VLE will have suffered in the areas of foodservice and provision of pies to the footie, but these are relatively small contributors, and overall I'd expect them to have benefited in the same way as Cranswick.

[rivaldo] 30/7/2020 08:53

...and Lidl are to open 25 new stores this year too, rising to 100 new openings by 2022:



"LIDL is set to open 25 new supermarkets across the UK this year - creating 1,000 new jobs."

"The ambitious plans will see Lidl open a new store every week across England, Scotland and Wales until Christmas 2020.

It's part of a £1.3billion investment for the UK that will see another 100 stores open in 2021 and 2022."

"There are around 800 Lidl supermarkets across the UK, and the retailer says it hopes to have 1,000 by the end of 2023."

[rivaldo] 30/7/2020 08:12

News that Aldi are to keep opening many more stores, and that sales increased 13% in the three months to July 12th, should be good news for Shire Foods:



"Aldi to create 1,200 jobs in UK this year as it continues to open stores
Published: 22:27, 29 July 2020

Aldi will create 1,200 jobs in the UK this year as it continues to open stores.

The German discount supermarket business plans to open an average of one shop a week between now and Christmas.

The retailer, which has more than 890 stores and around 35,000 UK staff, has already created 2,800 permanent jobs this year after demand for groceries rocketed in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.

Sandhurst, Bristol and Edinburgh are among the areas where shops will open as it continues towards its target of operating 1,200 stores by 2025.

The chain saw sales increase by 13 per cent over the 12 weeks to July 12, according to figures from Kantar."

[rivaldo] 28/6/2020 08:18

Shire Foods have set up a news page. Nothing dramatic, but it's a start...and there's some nice news about Shire's 50th anniversary, and about them donating to the NHS:

[rivaldo] 25/6/2020 16:25

LOL! Missed that. I wonder if it's typo and is really 19th June? Otherwise taking four months to notify the company is slow even by generally rubbish institutional standards....

[picnic] 25/6/2020 13:46

Did you notice the date of threshold breach? 19 th of February!

[scooper72] 25/6/2020 13:43

Yep. I have also started to buy a few having reduced my holding a couple of months ago. Regretted doing that and think this is one I will top up with if we are luckier to see any more weakness in the price.

[rivaldo] 25/6/2020 07:39

Now we know the reason for the dip - some selling by Burgan Bank of Kuwait. This must be the old State St Nominees holding, which was 282k shares. So around 104k shares have gone through the market, which is great for liquidity. The fact that they've gone straight down to 9.73% hopefully indicates that a block has been sold and that's the end of any sales:

[rivaldo] 05/6/2020 08:35

VLE has been bought by the Naked Trader (Robbie Burns) per his update late yesterday!

That should bring VLE on to a few new radars:

"Volvere (VLE) is a small one - the smallest I could ever go to because of liquidity. Bought some a while ago for the high risk sipp (those that get the email know about that one) but have added a few to the isa as well.

It's a turnaround and investment company so it should be doing well. It has swung into a profit and has cash - potential under the radar decent future!"

[rivaldo] 04/6/2020 11:51

IMO the company's products, relationships, industry positioning, track record, management, brands etc are worth a great deal.

I suspect as always the answer lies somewhere in the middle. Anyway, I won't be continuing this debate further, especially as it seems Shire is going to be retained for a while anyway as the fulcrum of VLE's new food sector division "empire"....hopefully we'll see further acquisition news in the next few months.

[dan_the_epic] 04/6/2020 10:22

Rivaldo you only do that if there is excess assets. Shire without its assets is worth close to nil as it has no revenue,t he customer relationships are worthless as supermarkets are very happy to switch suppliers all the time. I cannot argue that Shire has excess assets to make your argument hold water.

[eezymunny] 04/6/2020 10:20

The current investment fashion would be to buy A. Infinite ROC. Not in a nasty capital intensive industry.

A value investor would buy B.

You'd have to take a view on whether profits could be reinvested at high ROC. If so, A would knock B out of the park.

To double profits, A may require no capital investment. Just wait for more customers, put up prices etc (think AUTO, RMV etc). B may require another factory, cookers, lorries etc....

[rivaldo] 04/6/2020 06:58

Out of interest, let's try something.

You are about to buy either Company A or B. Both companies make £3m PAT annually. Company A has Nil net assets, whilst Company B has £4m of property and £5m net cash.

The sector average sales multiple is 10, which you're happy to pay.

How much would you pay for each company?

[rivaldo] 03/6/2020 23:05

The amount itself is up for discussion. But yes, of course a buyer will pay for the ongoing business, represented by the management, the skill set, the relationships with customers, the products, the brands - and the profitability of the core business.

No-one pays a multiple for any business based solely on its property and machinery - it's based upon profitability, supplemented by discussions re the value of the assets to be acquired (or not). After all, those assets are of no use without the people to run them and the products and brands to be produced on them.

[yamaha865] 03/6/2020 16:37

What a bizarre argument- Shire's revenue and profitability directly derive from its tangible assets, i.e. factory, machinery etc. It is a capex intensive business.

You are suggesting a buyer would pay £11.2m for Shire not including its tangible assets. For what? Its brand name and recipes? Hmmm...

[rivaldo] 03/6/2020 14:05

No - the £8.1m is the value of Shire as an ongoing highly profitable business, to be added to the 1385p per share NAV which doesn't include any value in that respect.

I'm assuming on a simple basis that the acquiror will pay a total consideration including £ for £ for the net assets/liabililities included in the current NAV. They would certainly have to pay something for the cash,debtors,freehold property net of borrowings etc. They may pay less for the net assets, but then it's possible that the profit multiple I've used of 8 will be understated when it's eventually time to sell, so swings and roundabouts.