Volta Finance Share Discussion Threads

[cerrito] 12/5/2023 17:34

I wonder if the good result6s for April just announced will reverse the weakening in the share price we have seen in last week or so.
The use of the word may in the following quote seemed rather vague and made me uncomfortable.
Did it make you folks uncomfortable??
quote
We still consider that the most likely scenario for 2023 is to close the year with higher but manageable default rates: from current 0.6% in Europe and 1.3% in the US at the end of April toward something in the 1/1.5% context for European loans and 2/2.5% for US loans. The levels, even modestly higher levels, may not cause any issue for CLO Equity quarterly payments (no interruption/diversion of payments in 2023 and most probably in 2024 as well).
unquote

[cerrito] 17/4/2023 11:15

Just read the Chairman 's and Investment Manager' s statements in the interims and I hope their optimism is justified. A good point about the double discount, but that said I will not be buying more.
Part a reflection as they pointed out in their last two monthly newsletters they expect CLO prices to drift down in the immediate future. We are in stormy seas and I have no real feel as to the Managers and what makes them tick as their IR strategy is not orientated towards UK private investors like me. I was interested to read the following comment on simplification which is something I had forgotten about and I suspect they are right that shareholders have not grasped the new situation, which perhaps  says something about their  IR. 

Quote
Considering all that, the Company continues to pivot towards pure CLO investments benefiting from the high cash flows associated with a larger CLO equity bucket. We view this strategy as offering transparency and simplicity to our shareholders relative to an allocation mixing different and sometimes less transparent asset classes.  We are not certain yet if our shareholders have grasped the new level of simplicity although Volta shares outperformed the NAV performance by 1.6% exhibiting some discount compression.
 unquote

[hpcg] 20/3/2023 11:52

Cerrito - I did sell. Easy for me though, had just dipped my toe in so a small loss with some to come back from the dividend.

[cerrito] 17/3/2023 10:29

You can sign up for free and get a daily email

[bluemango] 17/3/2023 09:23

Cerrito, could you possibly post the main point of his argument please, if you had a moment? Appears to be subscription only.

[cerrito] 17/3/2023 08:07

As a holder of both VTA and Fair, I read this morning's John Authers Points of Return with much interest. I suggest all VTA and Fair holders read it.
I am not quite sure what the implifications for both will be but I am having difficulty finding anything positive.
Logically I should sell but am put off by the wide bid/offer spread.
Be interesting to see what we are told in the April monthly report when things will be a bit clearer.

[yieldsearch] 15/3/2023 13:51

Volta Finance (listed in Amsterdam) not allowed anymore with interactive investors as it is classified as "a packaged retail and insurance-based investment product" and they are only allowing trade in the UK listed version (less liquid and bigger bid ask)
told them to read the kid because it is not really insurance based product.

any reco of sipp provider providing multi currency account?

[bluemango] 15/3/2023 09:17

Annual yield now 9.45% at current offer price.

[bluemango] 15/3/2023 08:03

Excellent. Dividend increase to .13 Eur

[cwa1] 15/3/2023 07:01

Guernsey, 15 March 2023

Volta Finance Limited ("the Company") hereby announces a first interim dividend for the financial year commencing 1 August 2022.

The Company announces that it has declared a quarterly interim dividend of EUR0.13 per share payable on 27 April 2023 amounting to approximately EUR4.76 million, equating approximately to an annualised 8% of net asset value. The ex-dividend date is 23 March 2023 with a record date of 24 March 2023.

[cerrito] 14/3/2023 15:10

Yes all good and liked their commentary

[cwa1] 14/3/2023 11:33

PERFORMANCE and PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Volta Finance is pleased to report another positive performance in February at +1.7% after a strong January performance of +5.5% and thus a good start for 2023...

[skyship] 14/2/2023 08:34

As at the end of January 2023, Volta's NAV was EUR225.2m or EUR6.16 per share.

[cerrito] 13/2/2023 11:30

Yes good news and good way to start the week

[cwa1] 13/2/2023 10:32

PERFORMANCE and PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY

Volta Finance is pleased report a strong performance of +5.5%, for the first month of 2023.

Although the CLO market is accustomed to a "January rally" the moves recorded in January 2023 were well above what might have been expected. Indeed, many investors were hesitant to invest in either CLO Debt or Equity tranches towards the end of 2022 but with the start of a new calendar year, the risk/reward perception shifted and translated into significant buying interest across the board. The demand for assets that were considered as cheap at the start of 2023 (CLO spread compression was lagging the spread compression observed on most of the broader credit markets in Q4 2022) was strong and led the way to a solid January performance, after a disappointing December...

[cerrito] 28/1/2023 17:23

Directors Talk has an interview with the Hardman analyst going through his latest report itself based on the Volta AR which it appears I should read. Anyone here had a good look at it??

[rambutan2] 14/1/2023 04:21

Cerrito, I'm not sure what you're saying. The para you quote is, like my two, bullish rather than bearish for the sector. While not currently a holder of VTA, having sold out higher up, I am a holder of FAIR and pondering on adding. I also hold TORO, which plays in the same postcode, if not the same street.

The default figs do matter, because as we have seen in previous times, if they get bad enough for long enough, there is no escape and a nasty geared plunge ensues for all vehicles.

[hpcg] 13/1/2023 21:49

I dipped my toe back in today having sold out at 6 euros and change in September 2021. A lot has happened to equity values and that provides some protection I think. The prospects for gain also balance out the risks IMO. If I already owned I don't think I would be increasing, there might be better opportunities, but I am low on debt instruments.

[cerrito] 13/1/2023 18:29

OK rambutan2 but remember they go on to say the following#
quote
Since the vast majority of loans are covenant lite, the deterioration of interest coverage ratios - while being a source of stress - do not mechanically lead to a default. It is the level of EBITDA and where rates will be when companies need to refinance their debt that will really matter. We do not see many companies that have to refinance in 2023.
unquote.
For me this shows that there is something mickey mouse about the whole discussion of defaults and explains why I am OK with my current holdings in both FAIR and VTA I am not looking to buy more.

[rambutan2] 12/1/2023 21:15

Dec nav, down 1% at 5.84:

"In terms of default rates, we now have the full list of defaults for 2022. Default rates were still very low, at 0.4% for European Loans and 0.7% for US loans. After the invasion of Ukraine, rating agencies were forecasting 2022 default rates to reach between 2% and 2.5% for the US and European loan markets... We closed the year far from those levels.

As we regularly highlight in this report, the main reason for such low default rates is the benefit of inflation, despite the economic slowdown. When companies' revenues are growing fast, even if said companies suffer from margins pressure, profits and EBITDA still manage to grow (at a lower pace than revenues but they still do grow on average)."

[davebowler] 20/12/2022 10:28

Liberum on FAIR -
Fair Oaks Income

Strong NAV performance in November

Mkt Cap £164m | Share price $0.49 | Prem/(disc) -13.3% | Div yield 16.3%

Event

Fair Oaks Income's NAV per share at 30 November 2022 was $0.565, representing a total return of 3.1% in the month (-2.0% YTD). NAV performance in November was driven by significant tightening in credit markets in the US and Europe. US and European high yield indices generated returns of +1.6% and +3.9% in the month. Loan markets were also positive in November (+1.2% in the US and +2.2% in Europe).

Trailing 12-month loan default rates remain low at 0.43% in Europe and 0.73% in the US. Market forecasts suggest default rates could reach 3%+ in 2023, although the manager is confident the portfolio can continue to generate attractive returns under these conditions. The portfolio is well-diversified and offers attractive downside protection given current valuations. Exposure is predominantly to senior secured loans and there is plenty of headroom on overcollateralisation tests.


Liberum view

Fair Oak's portfolio continues to perform resiliently, despite more challenging market conditions. Annualised default rates and the proportion of CCC-rated assets is considerably lower than market averages, leaving it well placed to weather market volatility. The headroom on the overcollateralisation test provides comfort on the ability to maintain high cash distributions. Stress testing suggests that the portfolio can continue to perform well, even if default rates exceed the most recent forecasts of 3%+. The company has an attractive discount control policy in place and has consistently bought back shares over recent months. We view the current 13% discount to NAV as overly punitive, given the downside protection and highly attractive 16% dividend yield

[cerrito] 13/12/2022 22:50

Yes pleasantly surprised by good performance on November and interested in the hedging they have done. I need to say I can understand why the market went back to sleep as I was not minded to buy more.

[cwa1] 13/12/2022 09:41

NAV update:-

[cwa1] 09/12/2022 07:23

Guernsey, 8 December 2022

Volta Finance Limited ("the Company") hereby announces a fourth interim dividend for the financial year commencing 1 August 2021.

The Company announces that it has declared a quarterly interim dividend of EUR0.12 per share payable on 26 January 2023 amounting to approximately EUR4.42 million, equating approximately to an annualised 8% of net asset value. The ex-dividend date is 29 December 2022 with a record date of 30 December 2022.