rmillaree - just referring back to your post 7147 a few days ago. VLX did in fact set out what they considered to be market expectations in the RNS of 15 November.
"The Board of Volex considers that the current consensus market expectation for revenue is $1,026.9 million (with a range of $1,019 million to $1,034 million) and for underlying operating profit of $96.8 million (with a range of $95.7 million to $97.6 million)."
I think the issue is that these expectations, which they said that were confident of meeting, are before finance costs and tax. If I had to guess I would suggest that, rather than the company being in some way underhand, the profit/eps numbers in your post have moved because the brokers have updated their tax estimate for the year based on the H1 number. |
Back to 285p. If you're agile, you can nip in and out of this.
But this is where those two shorters are feeding in. The market is finding it hard to buy through them.
A 200k block has just hit the book at 285p and the price hasn't even shifted higher. You don't often see that type of block hit in VLX. It is showing how much of a blocker they are being.
They just sit on the offer at 286p and sell in at 285p, exhausting all the buyers there. Then it lurches back down.
I suspect this would have pinged to at least 300p without them, but that is the market.
How about some more big blocks to give them a little run for their money.
09:12 EDIT: 280k print follows at 285p. Any more for any more?
All imo
DYOR |
I told you lemmings about nat endorsing trump 6 months ago.Nat doesn't play dice, he loads them.Once he closes his short position and reverses and orders others to do the same to align with his agenda, it will move. |
Also, just mentioned that VLX benefit when the US$ is strong. A bit like now. |
Saba Capital also shorting for 0.5%.
Burnt, that's all I can say.
At 46:20 in the interims, Nat mentions he's "pleased Trump was elected and it will be good for VLX's business."
It's a fair bet that the shorters are banking on a Mexico issue with Trump in office.
But if Nat's right, then the shorts will be buying back sooner rather than later.
Also, at 49:08, he talks about a work around for Tesla.
Once those close, surely VLX will elastic back-up. |
Sure. Charting pillocks. When will you realize what's going on here? |
286p +5.50p
Positive on the charting front |
a good UT 286p with a good size 54K
16:35:02 UT 286 54,447 |
286p +5.50p
A very good day for the stock and following the last couple of days also rising, from the lows. the volume has gone up also lately and after the little intraday retrace is moving higher again. |
>>Trading confirmed to be in line with expectations twice recently>>
Yes, although earnings estimates appear to have been massaged down, presumably at the instigation of the Company:
For 2025, Nov 24 eps consensus was 34.2c, now 31.9c
For 2026, Nov 24 eps consensus was 38.4c, now 36.3p, according to Stockopedia |
 Two pennies off break even with the price at 285p. The way the majority of prices are moving makes you wonder why you even give leeway to shares at times nowadays. Easier to just use a stop loss with everything now.
It is thinking about bouncing but it is very push and pull.
On one side:
- Relief over no excessive premium paid for TTG
- Trading confirmed to be in line with expectations twice recently
- Oversold technically and fundamentally in the eyes of many
- Juicer from the data centre and EV news
On the other side:
- Continued normal sellers with terrible fund flows and poor sentiment
- Deteriorating macro concerns causing selling
- At least one shorter in the market drip feeding from around the 283p mark halting any move higher, so the market has two buy through two layers of sellers to even have a trading bounce.
- Tariff concerns with Mexico to US causing some jitters and maybe part of the short selling thesis? It could just be some long/short strategy from the fund too if they're not going to build a substantial position from here.
- Some concerns over Tesla?
I don't know if that is the full picture. That is what I am trying to trade a bounce off. Clearly the VLX experts can add alot more.
Right now with shares like VLX, it feels like you have to wait for a puncturing of an already punctured multiple, and then you have a chance at picking a bounce.
You go from over 350p down to that 320p-340p range. Some are thinking, this could be an opportunity. Then it gets hammered again down to 300p and tries to bounce back so some are thinking that could be an opportunity and it fails at 300p.
And then...
It plunges again down to this new range.
Some will argue this is a fair multiple now in light of the above. I don't know. It looks a trading share now but there will be arguments on each side.
Choppy movement with a downward bias right now.
Can it stick its head through this level, buy through the shorts and ping through 290p?
Take a deep breath. Need a pick up in buying from the big players.
All imo
DYOR |
@NatRothschild1
Great to see UK EV charging infrastructure start to takeoff-120 applications for new charging stations, equating to hundreds of thousands of new plug points, granted in the last 18 months, is a fantastic platform from which to build on #EV #charging #uk |
Charge-point surge heralds UK ‘electric car revolution’
More than 120 planning applications for plug-in stations for EVs have been approved
The UK is on the “cusp of an electric car charging point revolution” with the number of plug-in stations set to increase considerably in the next two years. |
Looking even cheaper in $ terms if nat wants to accept a deal |
 thats the problem - it appears they are reducing forecasts in between updates - so that when next update comes they are cross referencing that they are on target for these curent new lower forecasts.
Very unhelpfully unlike most other companies they have not cross references what the current market expectations were on the 15th November - thats just plain sloppy (deliberate?)) not even coinfirming what forecasts are.
ref downgrades in last 30 days - you would probbaly need access to specific broker reports to see who has done the downgrading.
It is possible stocky datas is flawed and expectations are unchanged - i ssupect the fact they are being sketchy suggests thats probably not the case.
Its not really right thats shareholders have to speculate when they could just give us the numbers so its beyond doubt.
Its not exactly uincommon for soem companies for brokers to do these behind the scenes updates. Company would ned to be quizzed in that regard to see whats up. In theory is possible brokers are diverting from company numbers but i suspect thats unlikley to be the case. |
It is worth point out that company said on 15 November that:
"the Board remains confident in the Group's ability to meet full-year expectations, driven by our strategic direction and operational strength. With these solid foundations, we are also on track to achieve our ambitious five-year plan, positioning Volex for sustained success and value creation."
So with VLX being confident of meeting the expectations at the time I see no reason for brokers' current year forecasts to have been recently reduced. |
Per stockopedia
forecasts are $59.2 mill net profitb this year and $67.4 net profit next year. eps forecsts for boith years have dropped from prior peaks
2026 had original estimates of .416$ eps originally and over time thats now dropped to .365$
for 2025 peeak estimate was .365$ epstahts now dropped to .319$
looks like profit forecasts for both years have dropped by $3 mill in the last 30 days
note stockopdia numbers may or may not be reliable - they are normally fairly on the ball though most of the time - albeit if the company are issuing news shares over time then eps numbers may need revising ? |
[1] I can't find forecasts for FY 2025 specifically. I can only find for the FY 2027 5-year plan. Which is both good and bad. Bad as there should be FY 2025 specific forecasts. Good as they are totally on track to achieve the FY 2027 guidance of 1.2 billion revenue in the 9-10% profit margin corridor. I'm hoping that they are going to go somewhat over the 1.2 billion and are being quite conservative about this.
[2] When watching the H1 2025 presentation, Nat and JB discuss the "Trump effect". Nat has a little chuckle and says something like being sure Volex will benefit... I will have a check for the exact timing they discuss this. |
Paul Scott mentions vlx here. Says that broker forecasts have been downgraded a bit recently so inline isn’t perhaps as good as we’d hope. |
Positive commentary in Stocko today..... |
A possible negative for the share price (although not for the company's trading prospects) is the apparent absence of a lock-in clause so the new shares could soon be sold to raise cash for the recipients. Otherwise it is good to see that the progress in the acquisition is at least well up to expectations. |
Agreed it's positive news for sure, though not sure it's enough to stop the short term decline. Last year we got an update early April, so assuming similar this year means no news for nearly 3 months. |
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