ST, I have a different opinion as I believe that rhe kitchen sink has been thrown in. As posted, I believe if the 24/12 update was the end of it so that they can spin out as many positives come update next week. If the balance sheet was going to be weakened by further income erosion in 25, the buy back scheme would've been pulled, it hasn't so I see that as a positive sign. 5 more months at £9m a month when debt forecast is £200m, to continue would be reckless imo. I'm fortunate that I've not suffered the losses that some have had the misfortune experience and I'm happy to kiss up in volume down here. They're an acquisition target too but I believe the Vistry update will be better than expected. If it isn't, I will reappraise following TU and analyst call . |
prob with partnership contracts is that while they are nice big chunky fees and you can plan against them (buybacks), the issue is that you are selling to professionals that understand the mkt and how to operate in it (any issues with the properties will not be swept under the carpet). its easier to push singles onto john smith and in a rising mkt you get that benefit too. both have their advantages and disadvantages but with partnerships while in theory you escape the boom bust, you have to be on the ball otherwise your partners will eat your wafer thin margins. |
xclusive
"Yet they continue to hold in buy backs. Net debt forecast at 200m for FY24 so why continue ? "
sikhthetech - 08 Nov 2024 - 12:13:34 - 1739 of 2055 Vistry Group
I've seen this kind of reaction many times...
As per my assertions...Buy backs, NAV, Broker notes, TA, dividends etc wouldn't stop a share from crashing.
What matters is company/sector, economic/political newsflow and the direction they are heading.
Didn't Greg sell all his holdings held via Baker Estates? That was your red flag.
I wouldn't touch this atm. I'm still negative on HBs. |
Bigjock36: "Call transcript confirmed no further issues were highlighted"
A few were saying and thinking the same before the 3rd Profit Warning.
Then the Christmas present knocked on the door.
The only final positive outcome is the resignation of both CEO and CFO and the LAST skeleton taken out of the cupboard once for all - if any -.
This is when the market and investors would feel confident and comfortable. |
Yet they continue to hold in buy backs. Net debt forecast at 200m for FY24 so why continue ? Not long to find out. |
So there's a sudden realisation that some of their proposed developments are no longer viable and these will not proceed any further.
The question to ask is, what has changed in the interim to reach this conclusion.
What about the recent partnership contracts signed where work is already under way..will everything be hunky dory with these..? |
It'll take months, if not years to regain trust in the current management. It'll take several updates to establish they haven't anything else.
The CEO should have resigned when the blackhole was discovered, 4 months ago.
The shares were around 1000p when I posted:
sikhthetech - 08 Oct 2024 - 12:57:14 - 1552 of 1620
They usually do find more. Seen it so many times. Starts with 1 little find and escalates.
They say RECENTLY become aware, so there's likely to be more investigation and then they'll say something like 'further investigation reveals more '...
"The Group has recently become aware that within one of its six divisions" |
What is with all the Braindead posts on here and lse tonight Call transcript confirmed no further issues were highlighted Hopefully 2025 is the start of the business moving forward again |
fuji99, thanks for your reply. Again, I agree that Vistry management appears to have lapsed on Due diligence on the takeover of their counterparts, especially with regard to countrywide, as this is where the trouble started in their south division. The question now is, have they cleaned out, or are there more skeletons to be revealed in the closets? |
Didn't take long for the pressure to start before next update, nightmare is spot on fuji99, then again it will be tough for other builders also, from their current market cap there is along way they can fall and if you feed in some miss management that applies here, that only amplifies it, bit of a perfect storm. |
Svend2: Agree the TU of 15 Jan. will be important but difficult to digest and believe whatever it brings whether positive or negative due to past contradictions.
The market hates uncertainty and doubts as management unreliability demonstrated in the past.
So to restablish any credibility it'll take at least a few quarters to demonstrate that management statements are accurate and can be trusted.
Until then, holding such a share will be a nightmare for any PI. |
33 mins in .. |
fuji99 I concur with your summary only time will tell if the list is not causing further water intake into the ship's hull following the 3 PW. What a sad end to 2024 The TU on the 15 Jan is likely to be a fireworks event my guess is the big guns (institutions) are all eager to line up and aim some tough questions for Mr Greg Vistry 😉 |
Sikhthetech: Since following this stock, I definitely concluded that your logic makes sens.
Many, myself included, ignored the red flags.
Someone even believed they finally told the full truth before the 3rd PW.
As we stand, management has lost any credibility as they transformed a gem of a share into an unpredictable time bomb. |
I, for one, invest in different asset classes, including property.
I've also been investing in shares/trading etc for 40years.
That's why I went short on HBs.
sikhthetech - 08 Nov 2024 - 12:13:34 - 1739 of 2055 Vistry Group
I've seen this kind of reaction many times...
As per my assertions...Buy backs, NAV, Broker notes, TA, dividends etc wouldn't stop a share from crashing.
What matters is company/sector, economic/political newsflow and the direction they are heading.
Didn't Greg sell all his holdings held via Baker Estates? That was your red flag.
I wouldn't touch this atm. I'm still negative on HBs. |
 Ugly, turning away business, because uneconomic, and assuming no more surprises, what's now the new operating margin, say 6% less ?, on say 3bn of sales, before tax 180m so ongoing likely another 25% below what they have put out, before tax, take tax off, with a peer multiple of 9, would leave the market cap just above 1bn, very easy to see that, house builders have traded even lower in past, so that is not a bottom.
The price is still over £5 a share, so 1.8bn, can see why the shorter's are flocking around this raising their stakes substantially over the Christmas, will be ugly next week or so when the big players return, would rather watch, as don't see the return on investment at these levels. Best justify where it is in next couple of years assuming no more surprises, so you have just risk to hold it. Bit reckless using borrowed funds to try to go against the hedge funds, good luck with that one, better off use money to fix business.
Bit of a perfect storm, rising costs, falling demand, because not affordable, and unviable projects, the answer compromise on margin and volume, or it's worse until we see meaningful improvement in material labour cost inflation, lower interest rates, and especially some stability in how the ship is being run.
One to watch down to 1bn market cap, so sub £3 in my view, it's not going to be a good year for house builders IMO, and some are more exposed than others, as appears the case here, if I'm wrong I doubt come Dec-25, we see much change in price (unless cheaper), so what's the point, this is not a cheap stock, and certainly very high risk until they update with more info, better to invest with that to hand, if at that time it makes sense, okay, but very doubtful it will, more chance a big drop in price. |
Other HBs may also be down but they haven't issued 3 profit warnings in 3 months. I'll take a few more as the price drops to average down but this is going to be a long road to recovery. |
And Persimmon |
All HBs taking a beating. TW, BRRW down c 2% too |
Very thin trade so far today,next week will be a better indicator of longterm direction GLA |
* Vistry Group Plc VTY.L: Berenberg cuts target price to 650p from 750p |
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