It'll take months, if not years to regain trust in the current management. It'll take several updates to establish they haven't anything else.
The CEO should have resigned when the blackhole was discovered, 4 months ago.
The shares were around 1000p when I posted:
sikhthetech - 08 Oct 2024 - 12:57:14 - 1552 of 1620
They usually do find more. Seen it so many times. Starts with 1 little find and escalates.
They say RECENTLY become aware, so there's likely to be more investigation and then they'll say something like 'further investigation reveals more '...
"The Group has recently become aware that within one of its six divisions" |
What is with all the Braindead posts on here and lse tonight Call transcript confirmed no further issues were highlighted Hopefully 2025 is the start of the business moving forward again |
fuji99, thanks for your reply. Again, I agree that Vistry management appears to have lapsed on Due diligence on the takeover of their counterparts, especially with regard to countrywide, as this is where the trouble started in their south division. The question now is, have they cleaned out, or are there more skeletons to be revealed in the closets? |
Didn't take long for the pressure to start before next update, nightmare is spot on fuji99, then again it will be tough for other builders also, from their current market cap there is along way they can fall and if you feed in some miss management that applies here, that only amplifies it, bit of a perfect storm. |
Svend2: Agree the TU of 15 Jan. will be important but difficult to digest and believe whatever it brings whether positive or negative due to past contradictions.
The market hates uncertainty and doubts as management unreliability demonstrated in the past.
So to restablish any credibility it'll take at least a few quarters to demonstrate that management statements are accurate and can be trusted.
Until then, holding such a share will be a nightmare for any PI. |
33 mins in .. |
fuji99 I concur with your summary only time will tell if the list is not causing further water intake into the ship's hull following the 3 PW. What a sad end to 2024 The TU on the 15 Jan is likely to be a fireworks event my guess is the big guns (institutions) are all eager to line up and aim some tough questions for Mr Greg Vistry 😉 |
Sikhthetech: Since following this stock, I definitely concluded that your logic makes sens.
Many, myself included, ignored the red flags.
Someone even believed they finally told the full truth before the 3rd PW.
As we stand, management has lost any credibility as they transformed a gem of a share into an unpredictable time bomb. |
I, for one, invest in different asset classes, including property.
I've also been investing in shares/trading etc for 40years.
That's why I went short on HBs.
sikhthetech - 08 Nov 2024 - 12:13:34 - 1739 of 2055 Vistry Group
I've seen this kind of reaction many times...
As per my assertions...Buy backs, NAV, Broker notes, TA, dividends etc wouldn't stop a share from crashing.
What matters is company/sector, economic/political newsflow and the direction they are heading.
Didn't Greg sell all his holdings held via Baker Estates? That was your red flag.
I wouldn't touch this atm. I'm still negative on HBs. |
 Ugly, turning away business, because uneconomic, and assuming no more surprises, what's now the new operating margin, say 6% less ?, on say 3bn of sales, before tax 180m so ongoing likely another 25% below what they have put out, before tax, take tax off, with a peer multiple of 9, would leave the market cap just above 1bn, very easy to see that, house builders have traded even lower in past, so that is not a bottom.
The price is still over £5 a share, so 1.8bn, can see why the shorter's are flocking around this raising their stakes substantially over the Christmas, will be ugly next week or so when the big players return, would rather watch, as don't see the return on investment at these levels. Best justify where it is in next couple of years assuming no more surprises, so you have just risk to hold it. Bit reckless using borrowed funds to try to go against the hedge funds, good luck with that one, better off use money to fix business.
Bit of a perfect storm, rising costs, falling demand, because not affordable, and unviable projects, the answer compromise on margin and volume, or it's worse until we see meaningful improvement in material labour cost inflation, lower interest rates, and especially some stability in how the ship is being run.
One to watch down to 1bn market cap, so sub £3 in my view, it's not going to be a good year for house builders IMO, and some are more exposed than others, as appears the case here, if I'm wrong I doubt come Dec-25, we see much change in price (unless cheaper), so what's the point, this is not a cheap stock, and certainly very high risk until they update with more info, better to invest with that to hand, if at that time it makes sense, okay, but very doubtful it will, more chance a big drop in price. |
Other HBs may also be down but they haven't issued 3 profit warnings in 3 months. I'll take a few more as the price drops to average down but this is going to be a long road to recovery. |
And Persimmon |
All HBs taking a beating. TW, BRRW down c 2% too |
Very thin trade so far today,next week will be a better indicator of longterm direction GLA |
* Vistry Group Plc VTY.L: Berenberg cuts target price to 650p from 750p |
Bigjock36 have you asked their brokers if they have been instructed to cease the BB? |
Happy New Year to all. |
The company newsflow here has been as predicted....
The shares were around 1000p when I posted:
sikhthetech - 08 Oct 2024 - 12:57:14 - 1552 of 1620
They usually do find more. Seen it so many times. Starts with 1 little find and escalates.
They say RECENTLY become aware, so there's likely to be more investigation and then they'll say something like 'further investigation reveals more '...
"The Group has recently become aware that within one of its six divisions"
around 700p I posted:
sikhthetech - 15 Nov 2024 - 16:38:53
<...>
I might take a punt < 500p on the hope that the CEO does resign and the company starts to re-build confidence. |
BJ,Wasn't long ago that you were bawling out the shorter and now you've sold, you've joined the neg club. We al gave our opinions and I'm loading up down here as I believe the bad news is done following the 24/12 update or should I say kick in the teeth. If I'm right, this'll gap up as shorts look to close quickly. If I'm wrong, then I'll take the medicine. |
How many times have we heard that Yawn |
If they had not gone in for financial engineering with buy backs and spent a bit more time and effort on the internal accounting this could still have been a decent income stock.
How much of a mess they are in with the shift to lower margin builds remains to be seen, but aligning with Angela Raynor and 'Uz Labour' probably in not a good omen. |
Volatility reigns as shorts start to close |
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