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VOF Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Ld

0.00 (0.00%)
13 Jun 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Investors - VOF

Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Investors - VOF

Share Name Share Symbol Market Stock Type
Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Ld VOF London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Last Trade
0.00 0.00% 487.50 16:28:34
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
487.50 487.50 490.00 487.50 487.50
more quote information »
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Top Posts
Posted at 31/5/2024 10:04 by aleman
More signs property is going from bust to boom again (as planning restrictions ease).

The Hanoi index (more small and midcaps) squeaked to a new 9-month high yesterday and the Unlisted index (a bit like AIM?) also edged to a new 2-year high. They don't seem to affect VOF NAV much but will encourage a positive outlook amongst Vietnamese stock investors, while being another sign that the domestic economy is improving. Volumes of shares traded across all indices look to be on the rise and are not so far off from the highs of late 2021 again. Also, attempts to calm the frothy local gold market possible seem to be starting to see a little success which might encourage investors back out of gold into other assets like shares and property.
Posted at 20/5/2024 07:45 by aleman
It was a weak April stockmarket performance but the market has since completely bounced back on digesting a good reporting season. The outlook seems to be confirming that the recovery is turning out stronger than predicted. (Will VOF's property bias help, after hindering for a couple of years?)

Looking ahead, we anticipate significant improvement as Vietnam’s corporate earnings outlook turns upward, a trend that started in late 2023 and has continued into 2024. We have revised our earnings forecast upward from 10-15% to 15-20% for 2024 and also 2025. The recovery of property launches is expected to boost pre-sales and enhance the profitability outlook for real estate developers. This improvement should also translate into better asset quality for banks over the long term. In terms of valuation, Vietnam remains attractive with a market trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 11.1x, which remains at a 20% discount compared to ASEAN peers. Considering the potential for robust compound earnings growth over the next two years, we believe the Vietnam market presents an attractive opportunity for investors considering allocating capital beyond other emerging and regional markets.

The stockmarket is up again and on the cusp of a 25-month high today and should see NAV push through 600p when reported tomorrow.
Posted at 02/5/2024 12:15 by aleman
There we go. Friday's NAV up a bit as expected. Today's market also closed up, at a two week high and despite foreign selling. (When will that reverse?) I think Vietnam economic conditions continue to be set up for a bull market so I hope to see the discount shrink to less than 10% in months ahead as NAV continues to rise. I'm open to accusations of excess optimism ....

Foreign selling might reverse by September when a possible announcement from FTSE Russell might see an upgrade from Frontier To Emerging Market status to occur in 2025, hopefully with MSCI and Dow Jones not far behind. Perhaps more importantly, local investors make up 90%+ of market trading and they are reading numerous local articles like this:

Near record low savings deposit rates saw a net cash withdrawal (of about $1.3bn equivalent) from banks in January after 25 months of consecutive net deposits. Will this trend continue and where will the money get reinvested? (The Vietnamese stockmarket had a good month in January but the property market also showed signs of picking up in Q1. If withdrawn savings goes into both property and the stockmarket, VOF's high property exposure might bring a bit of a double whammy effect and lead to some slight outperformance, after underperfoming a little in the last year or two.)
Posted at 22/4/2024 12:42 by aleman
VNI +1.3% today.

From the positive March update:

The earnings season has started, and many Vietnamese companies are in the throes of reporting their first quarter results, which should wrap up by the end of April. Early indications from our Research team show that show we may be in for a strong level of core earnings growth for the first quarter, driven by a robust recovery in cyclical sectors such as Aviation, Construction Materials, and Consumers. The Banking sector, which is a key pillar of economic activity and the largest constituent of the index, is showing a potential for approximately 10% year-on-year earnings growth, but potentially compressed by lower net interest margins after coming off a high base in 2023 when the domestic interest rate environment was much higher. As such, our Research team expect robust earnings growth over the next two years, ranging from 15% to 20% year-on-year for 2024 and 2025. The stock market’s valuations are creeping up, at a 11x forward price-to-earnings ratio and now slightly within one standard deviation from the historical average PER of 14x. That being said, the market is still at a 20% discount to regional peer averages, and with a prospect of robust compounding earnings growth over the next two years, the Vietnam market today presents an attractive opportunity for investors to consider allocating beyond India and Japan.
Posted at 18/4/2024 20:00 by kenmitch
Everything Aleman has posted here about corruption in Vietnam is accurate.

Here’s the full corruption list of every country in the World.

There are 103 Countries that are MORE corrupt than Vietnam, including India (it hasn’t stopped their stock market from doing well and being highly rated) whereas Vietnam market PE is cheap. India PE ratio is 25 compared with Vietnam 14. India’s PE ratio is even higher than US 23, and UK 12.

Note that Countries like Ukraine, Brazil, Thailand, Turkey and Indonesia are more corrupt than Vietnam.

And people are missing one of Aleman’s key points; Vietnam is being ruthless now in tackling corruption.It might help improve the corruption figure fast if death sentences are the risk if caught!

And another key point being misunderstood is that the banking corruption episode was in 2022. That’s why the Vietnam stock market fell 30% in Autumn 2022.And what a good top up opportunity that was!

The idea posted here that Vietnam market has done badly for 2 years is a bit odd too. I used the Autumn 2022 as a chance to top up Vietnam Holdings and Vietnam Opportunities. VNH is up from 230p then to 370p. Is that really lousy performance?

Very recent Vietnam market is poor, reflecting recent events and those falls might not be over yet. But as soon as the falls show signs of reversing is far more likely to be a buy opportunity than a chance to escape.

Finally don’t forget that at present Vietnam is classed as a “frontier” market but quite soon could be promoted to full Emerging Markets status. That could well bring in a lot more big investors and lead to further excellent gains for all 3 Vietnam Trusts. And so much so perhaps that the current discounts could well go to premiums. I strongly suggest that posters here read the excellent monthly updates and also the Results statements from the 3 Vietnam Trusts.

I’ve held both VOF and VNH for multiple years, except for selling temporarily in the covid market crash and both have been excellent performers, albeit with VNH way outperforming VOF.
Posted at 18/4/2024 11:39 by aleman
I'd say the big fall was two years ago. I think it all depends on whether the central bank has it under control or not. They've had a least 18 months and seem to be in control. I just think the scale of the collateral asset sales were maybe a little bigger or a bit more sudden than the market (foreign investors?) expected. What we now need to see is the market adjust to the idea and move on. It's had 4 days to adjust. It should have found its new base by now. That's if I'm understanding it correctly. I'm not certain about that.
Posted at 11/4/2024 08:18 by aleman
VINACAPITAL VIETNAM OPPORTUNITY FUND LIMITED is pleased to announce that Andy Ho and Khanh Vu will provide a live presentation relating to the Investor Presentation via Investor Meet Company on 17 Apr 2024, 11:00 BST.

The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted pre-event via your Investor Meet Company dashboard up until 16 Apr 2024, 09:00 BST, or at any time during the live presentation.

Investors can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free and add to meet VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Limited via:


Investors who already follow VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Limited on the Investor Meet Company platform will automatically be invited.
Posted at 26/3/2024 09:08 by aleman
Interesting defence of NOT introducing a tender mechanism in the results. I do not agree with it. Modest partial tenders have worked well elsewhere. Practice shows that just the threat of offering to buy a few % of shares somewhere near par is enough to dissuade some selling and encourage some buying such that discounts tend to start closing. The upwards momentum then also encourages the same and shares tend to rise. Investors seeing a rising share price then tend NOT to take up the tender and decide to hang on. It might not work everywhere but what harm can there be in offering small partial tender of, say, 5-10%. They are shrinking the investment base with their buy-backs, anyway, and that's not working. That's ok in the short term but can become a problem in the longer run.

On a more positive note for the status quo, a large investor is selling and NAV keeps rising. One would imagine the shares will fly when they finish selling or see the light and change their mind. Which idiotic fund decides to sell out when the underlying investments seem to be picking up strongly? I'd be furious if it was a fund I was invested in.

A better understanding of what is going on might encourage buyers in at this historically very large discount.

The VN index closed up over 1% again - at the day's high.
Posted at 19/2/2024 12:24 by kenmitch
VOF has been a fabulous investment. I’ve held it almost from the start except for temporarily selling during the 2008 banking crisis and the 2020 covid crash. Have a look at the long term chart. It has 9 bagged from the lows.

The recent underperformance looks a great buy opportunity as VOF has way underperformed VNH and VEIL this year for no obvious reason.

I posted why VOF looks a very tempting buy now on subscription site Stockopedia and to save time have copied part of it below. There is one error in it which a poster there pointed out. The discount has been even bigger than the current 24% in the distant past, when the attractions of investing in Vietnam were even less recognised by UK investors. When eventually UK investors DO wake up to the Vietnam opportunity (perhaps not until Vietnam gets official Emerging Markets status) it’s likely that VNH, VOF and VEIL will do very well and the present discounts could well go to premiums to put an additional rocket under their share prices. BUT right now it’s VOF that looks the one to go for. Here’s that extract arguing why:-

“Why is VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (LON:VOF) THE stunning buy now?

1. The main Vietnam index is up 11% so far this year. VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (LON:VOF) NAV is also UP 29p since January 2nd from £5.55 then to £5.84p today.

BUT despite that NAV gain the share price is DOWN from £4.55 on Jan 2nd to £4.42. AND the discount to NAV is now exceptionally wide at 24%!!

So the share price fall this year is NOT because of poor performance. It’s mainly because the discount to NAV has widened even further.

I can’t recall in years of holding VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (LON:VOF) the discount to NAV being SO high! If VOF was an open ended fund investors would have to pay the full £5.84 NAV price. Instead they (you?) can buy it at a bargain discount price of “25% off” £4.42p.

2. In contrast the other 2 Vietnam Trust share prices have done much better this year and unlike VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (LON:VOF) have gone UP since Jan 2nd.

Vietnam Enterprise Investments (LON:VEIL) £5.87 now and up from £5.55 on Jan 2nd. NAV is up from £6.80 on Jan 2nd to £7.21 now. The discount is 18%.

VietNam Holding (LON:VNH) £3.75p and well up from Jan 2nd £3.25p. NAV is £3.81p. The discount is now just 3% (much lower than normal) AND unlike the other 2 VNH looks fully valued for now. The share price gain since Jan 2nd is partly because the discount has narrowed so much. That’s is SHARP contrast to VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (LON:VOF) where the share price fall is because the discount has widened to extreme levels.

Hence VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (LON:VOF) looking such a tempting buy now.

Finally; it might not be too much longer before Vietnam becomes officially an Emerging Market. It’s presently categororised as a frontier market. That promotion if and when it comes could see Vietnam seeing much wider investment interest. AND the current discounts could go to premiums then.

I.e there’s also a strong longer term case for investing in emerging Vietnam where more and more big Companies (like APPLE) are moving production to Vietnam, and that’s often from CHINA and TAIWAN.

I hold both VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (LON:VOF) and VietNam Holding (LON:VNH).”
Posted at 19/1/2024 13:41 by aleman
Looking forward to 2024, we expect that interest rates will remain stable and domestic investors will be likely to continue diverting money away from bank deposits (owing to much lower deposit rates compared to 12 months ago) and back into the stock and real estate markets. Earnings growth and valuations will be an area of focus for investors, given the flat earnings growth for 2023, while valuations remain very attractive and below historical averages. This should be supportive for the stock market. Specifically, our Research team expect the earnings growth of Vietnam’s stock market to recover from no growth in 2023 to 10-15% earnings growth in 2024, although our team’s forecast tends to be slightly more conservative than market consensus. Furthermore, public equity valuations are at a 30% discount to regional peers, and with a PEG ratio of 0.7x, Vietnam continues to offer valuation appeal while delivering reasonable growth.

In addition, it is widely anticipated that implementation of the stock exchange’s new KRX trading system in 2024 will help solve certain technical problems, which in turn could lead to Vietnam being upgraded from a Frontier Market to an Emerging
Market by the FTSE-Russell Index later in the year. Expectations of an imminent market upgrade tends to attract more foreign inflows and will push daily liquidity past the current ~USD800 million daily level.

The SBV has set a 15% credit growth target for 2024 and announced its allocation of full-year credit quotas to banks right at the beginning of the year rather than staggered quarterly as in the past. A key factor in the Real Estate sector’s recovery will be how fast regulatory approvals for projects are obtained and the effectiveness of new laws to give clarity on real estate regulations. Hopes are high that a special session of the National Assembly in January will help solve some of the issues that have impeded real estate development, and we will report further on this once we have more clarity.

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