Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 03/10/2023 10:09

It could be in my previous post (falling PMI) but I think some Chinese property shares fell hard. I would not worry about it though. It looks like Southern Vietnam is booming.



HCM City (VNA) – Ho Chi Minh City’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in the first nine months of this year increased by 3.2% year-on-year, regaining its attractiveness to foreign investors, suppliers and clients.

Earlier, the seven-month and eight-month figures stood at 2.2% and 2.6%, respectively, which demonstrated that industrial production in the country’s southern biggest economic hub has overcome the downturn period. In September alone, the index went up 2.9% month-on-month, and 8.1% year-on-year.

[dickbush] 03/10/2023 09:27

Vietnam market down 3.2%. I can't find any fundamental news to explain this. Wall Street was unchanged overnight and its futures are slightly positive. Dong OK. It just looks like locals panicking. Anyone have anything to add?

[aleman] 02/10/2023 08:14

Vietnamese manufacturing PMI fell from 50.5 to 49.7 but orders rose for a second month, driven by exports. Manufacturers seemed optimistic about future output.

Firms expect new orders to improve further, thereby leading to output growth.
Around 45% of respondents predicted output to rise over the coming year, against 7% that were pessimistic.

[shaker45] 27/9/2023 10:12

I suspect that the discount is high in part because of the severe and worsening financial problems in China which are affecting all s e Asian economies and will get worse. Their property crash results from excessive valuations caused by imbalance between savings and consumption as a proportion of China gdp. That's exacerbated by low demand/consumption both in China and globally. It will take 5-10 years for China to 'normalize'. Getting nasty out there. Just now, cash is king, while all markets are in risk off mode

[aleman] 27/9/2023 09:08

Discount to published NAV 21% this morning but with today's market rise yet to be digested, it could be as high as 22-23%. This means the shares might need to rise by 10% or more just to get to a normal discount. (From 77% of NAV to 85%.) While discounts can expand in difficult markets, this could be a very good long term buying opportunity. Manufacturing and industrial output and the manufacturing PMI all improved again in August, and imports and exports were both very strong, suggesting the economy is continuing to recover.

[aleman] 25/9/2023 17:39

21.6% discount now. Considerably more than the norm of recent years. A typical 15% discount would have us at 475p.

[aleman] 25/9/2023 12:14

China sneezes, Vietnam catches cold, VOF gets flu. With today's excessive fall, the discount is up to 20.9% @ 442p and yield up to 2.5% (assuming rebased to current NAV).

[31337 c0d3r] 18/9/2023 21:50

Kenmitch try

[kenmitch] 18/9/2023 16:43

More nonsense unfortunately arja.

Of course I know what is meant by dividend yield as any even half competent investor will know. Accusing someone of not knowing something when you can’t possibly know what they do or don’t know is unwise. The main focus of my investments for multiple years has been on big dividend paying shares and Investment Trusts.

e.g I hold several in this very high dividend paying Investment Trust sector:-



As for the modest VOF dividend; of course I realise the yield is low. I was just pointing out that it was the only one of the 3 Vietnam Trusts paying a dividend.

EDIT.

Unfortunately for anyone looking to follow up this post, the link above to the “commercial property UK”page has defaulted to the wrong page" . Just search for it via the AIC sectors heading or key in AEWU which is one of several I hold and that will bring up the aic link for all the their UK Commercial Property Trusts.

There are some stunning bargains there on very big discounts and dividends up to 10% (AIRE eg). but beware RGL as their displayed 15.9% dividend yield has just been cut and aic haven’t adjusted it yet.

[arja] 18/9/2023 11:19

and based on your useful link, I see VEIL pays no dividends .

[arja] 18/9/2023 11:13

kenmitch ,
It is you who is talking nonsense sport and you talk about PERCENTAGE dividends and do not probably even know what is meant by DIVIDEND YIELD . I suppose VOF has a yield of about 2.3% - wow ! Google it . I do not trade shares in investment trusts much and the few i used to follow paid no dividends . followed VOF and VEIL in recent weeks but I notice the VNI shows a possible mini double top.

[richardly] 18/9/2023 01:19

"AND discounts across all the Investment Trust sectors are at a near record high of around 17%. I.e there are bargains galore." IF, you can believe, their NAV's and so discounts!? Many are out of date in no time and/or simply unreliable in reality? One thing you can believe, is the usually high charges?

[kenmitch] 17/9/2023 16:37

Nonsense does get posted as fact on some bulletin boards!

Far from “Investment Trusts often pay nothing,” the reality is that 56 Trusts are paying dividends between 7% and 10% and a further 28 Trusts are paying more than 10% dividends.

Easy to check that out via the 20 pages in this link:-



If ADVFN block this link just “Google” “aic compare companies.”

EDIT.

And 154 Investment Trusts are paying dividends of more than 5%.

AND discounts across all the Investment Trust sectors are at a near record high of around 17%. I.e there are bargains galore. E.g check out the “Commercial Property UK” and “Commercial Property Europe” sectors where some Trusts (e.g EBOX) have gone from big premiums to NAV to discounts as high as 40%!

AND among those bargains are the 3 Vietnam Trusts.Vietnam looks an exceptionally exciting investment opportunity. And with VOF there’s that useful dividend too.

[arja] 16/9/2023 20:38

Aleman ,
I was not aware that VOF paid a higher dividend as investment trusts often pay nothing as are an asset situation . But I trade it anyway jumping in and out as brokerage only £3 and NO stamp duty . Vietnam indices are in uptrend but not in last few days as consolidating . Might kick on soon or might be a bit exhausted . I have not followed VOF long enough to know how the vietnam indices react to daily movement in US indices . Wonder what will happen on monday after fall in US indices :)

[aleman] 16/9/2023 11:03

There's not a great deal of difference between the 3 UK-listed Vietnamese trusts in terms of longer term performance since launch, especially if you allow for VOF's dividend. However, VOF has underperformed through 2023. Given the significant unlisted and property investments, I'm wondering if they need revaluing to capture recent improvements on these areas?



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[arja] 15/9/2023 16:39

missed a trick in closing auction not to buy back at 453.50 but was focused on something else . Incredible really as I sold at 459.42 about 3 minutes before 4.30pm !
nice weekend all

[31337 c0d3r] 10/9/2023 11:28

Vietnam to upgrade US relationship to level with China

Biden set to sign strategic partnership on Hanoi visit to counter Beijing’s assertiveness in region.



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[aleman] 07/9/2023 16:03

Topped up. The 20% discount is about 5% more than typical for this one and I think medium to long term prospects will make this look a great buying opportunity in time.

[arja] 06/9/2023 08:58

vietnam indices up again today and surely VOF will clear 455 level . I suppose the steep discount to NAV is because it is Vietnam and might be thinly traded market which can suddenly plunge . But doing well today even as US indices fall !

[arja] 05/9/2023 09:52

yes, surprised it opened weaker today as Vietnam index is up even though only by about .8% . It gave me an opportunity to buy a few more at 445.42(( should have bought more :)) but wide spread in this illiquid stock is a pain but can nearly always trade between the spread with an RSP quote on my L2 platform . Let's hope it kicks on Aleman but might depend on how US indices open at 2.30pm !

[aleman] 05/9/2023 08:44

Vietnamese manufacturing PMI rose from 48.7 in July to 50.5 in August.

[aleman] 04/9/2023 12:41

Should be more like 465p here. The two main Vietnamese indices have nearly recovered their drops of a couple of weeks ago. They could be hitting new 12m highs soon with monetary policy an ongoing tailwind and China sentiment possibly improving.

[arja] 04/9/2023 12:08

vietnam indices charts show nice uptrend and always surprises me that VOF trades at a big discount to NAV .

[hydrogen economy] 18/8/2023 12:50

I can't find any specific cause, there may be some company issues like debt or dodgy dealing but not yet known.

The Evergrande chapter 15 filing and debt problems other Chinese property cos may have got people worried about Vietnam equivalents. There have been issues earlier in the year. From what I can tell the Evergrande issues do not directly affect Vietnam but cannot be certain.

The other related issue is that several large banks were warned a few weeks ago by the regulator about breaching rules on the % of deposit funds invested into single company's projects or even single projects (mainly real estate). That possibly explains why banks were another badly hit sector, property issues may become bank issues but that is my speculation only and the sell-off was pretty broad.

[31337 c0d3r] 18/8/2023 11:26

The Hanoi stock exchange closed -5.6% last night.