Victoria Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[deanroberthunt] 13/4/2017 13:18

balanced view, always.

[deanroberthunt] 13/4/2017 13:12

I like Malcy, he's as fatty says honest and knowledgable...but I think he only focuses on the positives and not the negatives....but then I suppose he's being paid to spin a good yarn...

[deanroberthunt] 13/4/2017 13:04

whilst I'm very positive and pleased with the overall story.
I'm not particularly enamered with 7-8 weeks delay on original timescales, which is 2 months in my book, at least...and a cost overspend of 40% to date.....late and overspent the worst a project can be.

moreover, I can't believe VOG/GDC are carrying the entire risk of the wells, what if there's more blunders, the limit has to be capped at some point...

these wells are getting very expensive now, I don't think XOMs/COPL deepwater well offshore Liberia cost much more than this...although it was a duster

[fatnacker] 13/4/2017 13:03

big buying volume

[baticle] 13/4/2017 13:00

I can't speak for myself but a few may have sold this morning, maybe to buy back cheaper...but I can't see this tanking...There's been a slight delay in drilling and people will get Easter out of the way, go on their summer hols and when they Return VOG will be completing the well and >...Vwalah...Again this stock will be in demand ..Point I'm trying to make is We're close to the end zone and things are going to be happening here,it's not like we've got 2/3 years to wait for drilling and pipeline work,pretty much everything is in place and I think people will accumulate on any drop

[fatnacker] 13/4/2017 12:59

would be good to get back to the bottom of the uptrend channel at least

[clunes100] 13/4/2017 12:54

With the current volume, we should recover most of today's drop by close.

[broncowarrior] 13/4/2017 12:17

dean, have you gone all bearish all of a sudden?

[highasakite] 13/4/2017 12:09

Massive number of buys compared to sells today.

[fatnacker] 13/4/2017 11:52

honest with it

[deanroberthunt] 13/4/2017 11:41

Malcy is the bull of all bulls though, his glass is always half full, mostly of beer

[pauliewonder] 13/4/2017 11:37

Malcy likes it:

Victoria Oil & Gas
A Q1 2017 operational update today from VOG which has been a stellar performer of late as the market tags on to just how much the stock is undervalued. The key features are, production up, again, two Logbaba wells currently drilling, the Bowleven farm-in under way and initial positive news from Matanda where early seismic shows ‘considerable gas in place potential’.

So, Logbaba gas production is up 10.7%to 14.57 mmscf/d as the dry season continues and thus sales remain on an upward track. Drilling two new wells continues and La-108 has encountered gross pay of 125m of high permeability, high porosity gas bearing sands which should result in a ‘significant increase in proven reserves’. ( Bear in mind that the La-105 well pay was only 84m) The well has since been side-tracked after a ‘well control incident’ that was safely dealt with but will add around five weeks and $8m to the overall cost of the well but will be recouped from revenue. La-107 has been drilled and casing set to 1618m, both wells will be tested in Q2 and complete in Q3. A high pressure gas flowline is being installed to enable early production.

The Q1 revenue was $8.1m (Q4 4.6m) and the current cash position is $14.1m. With record gas sales in March one can remain genuinely optimistic about the future, especially as the company has completed phases 11 and 111 of the pipeline making 50km in total and added six new customers with two more waiting to tap in. This confirms that there is large, unsatisfied energy demand in Cameroon and VOG is very well placed to profit from it.

I have just returned from a visit to see VOG in Cameroon and its subsidiary Gaz du Cameroun (GDC) where I was extremely impressed by the set up and its local management. We visited the Logbaba gas project including seeing the two wells currently drilling and saw the pipeline from Logbaba all the way through Douala. In the process we saw a number of GDC’s key clients, including the ENEO power stations using GDC gas. ( a contract that is shortly due to expire but I am convinced will rollover as negotiations are ‘well advanced’) Other clients we saw were a palm oil factory, two huge brewing operations at Guinness and SABC as well as Chococam which is part of Tiger Brands, chocolate and beer, what more could you ask for? Finally we visited Bomono which is intended to supply gas to the other end of the pipe in Douala where significant expansion is already under way. This would complete this part of the jigsaw and whilst subject to Government approval, should mean that either of the existing wells at Moambe and Zingana or even new wells, could supply gas to the rapidly expanding Douala customer base. The existing pipeline is only 9.5km away and most of the route could be constructed through a rubber plantation that has been untapped for several years making the infrastructure much easier.

The VOG format in Cameroon is rapidly becoming a significant money making operation, supplying gas to power projects and substantial commercial customers. There is no sign of any slowdown and the ‘cradle to grave’ utility model is proving to be a highly successful. Cameroon is seeing considerable inward investment, particularly from Chinese companies in the area and I see the total available market for gas to be growing faster than GDC can supply it. It would not be stupid to suggest that some such clients might even help finance the pipeline construction in order to be at the front of the queue for gas. Accordingly, providing the Bomono deal completes, then further gas supplies can be easily and cheaply brought on stream ensuring considerable increases in revenue and profitability. The longer term but potentially huge opportunities provided by the Matanda block can only add to the model which already looks in very good shape. Recent operational problems aside, I continue to view VOG as a significant opportunity and remain with my current target price of 200p.

[deutsch3] 13/4/2017 10:41

Don't forget Guys that most of the spend (50m+) on wells and pipeline/infrastructure converts to asset value on the balance sheet - even more value when proven reserves are confirmed. - The value of this company is going upwards mega and any future take out price from a predator would need to be way way up now!!

[deanroberthunt] 13/4/2017 10:10

just need a placing now and we'll have a full house....

[trapissed monk] 13/4/2017 09:21

Nice ping off 68p area.I'll take 10% for the weekend frivolity!

[ridicule] 13/4/2017 09:13

deanroberthunt There are two interpretations of deisel

1. A typo
2. A new word that has the extrodinary ability to describe both a type of fuel and the way your brain works simultaneously.

[fatnacker] 13/4/2017 09:12

I did wonder about the culpability of the operator then I thought I cant see the operator taking on a high risk job and accepting all risks.

[clunes100] 13/4/2017 09:07

Key points from the report:

$8m extra spend - is that VOG's share or the total amount to be split between VOG and RSM? Is it VOG's fault or the drill operator's?

VOG has enough cash, cashflow and debt facility to continue as planned, even with aditional costs.

22nd April ENEO contract date, so expect news any minute on contract extension and potentially new contract for future power development.

125m of pay zone is significant and an upgrading of reserves is always welcome along with increased capability and well redundancy.

Bowleven contract still in place.

Company assets enhanced and underpinning share price.

[fatnacker] 13/4/2017 09:03

fair enough sleveen, we will see where the share price is come the may report

[sleveen] 13/4/2017 08:55

ridicule

Glad to see an investor with a realistic view.

dean was being ironic ie meaning the opposite of what he said.

fatnacker,

You might be right with the wood for the trees/big picture reasoning, but for me it's the numbers that matter because they support future progress. HOW many AIM companies have had great stories and yet gone bust: loads.Note I am not saying VOG will go bust in fact VOG is better than many AIM companies.

The numbers for 2017 so far will be less than 2016, report due in May.

In my view the recent spike was cause by a major IR project with assumptions about the future.

GLA