Vianet Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 11/6/2013 08:07

Results inline with the February update but with a more positive slant on forward prospects. Always difficult to know how quickly technological developments in the smaller Vending and Fuel Management srctors will take root and generate income.

In broader terms the rollout of iDraught in the US will be critical to overall Group performance this year and the maintenence of the final dividend is a positive sign of confidence in this respect. One slightly concerning factor that could negatively impact the core UK market business was encapsulated in this statement:

"On 22 April 2013 the Secretary of State for Business, Vince Cable, released a draft consultation document (the "Consultation Document") for a Statutory Code for Pub Companies regarding their dealing with tenants. Contained within the Consultation Document are provisions for controlling the application of beer flow monitoring for managing compliance with contracted beer purchase obligations. The Group believes these proposals are unjust and that they are not based upon fact or any substantiated evidence. As such the Board intends to formally respond to the Secretary of State to reject the proposals regarding beer flow monitoring and to support the continued legal use of beer monitoring products and services.

The reason given by the Consultation Document for proposing a limitation on the use of beer flow monitoring product is that it is considered 'controversial' by certain parties who have made unproven accusations against our technology. Vianet's service has been subject to legal scrutiny by the court of law on many occasions and has never been shown to be unfit for purpose and accordingly as a Board, we are extremely disappointed and frustrated by the proposals contained within the Consultation Document.

Supported by strong legal advice from leading counsel we will be responding to the Consultation Document in order to robustly defend the Group's beer monitoring product. We will respond by 14 June 2013 when the Consultation period is due to end. Although, at this stage, the Consultation Document only contains proposals the Board believes that if these proposals were to be implemented into legislation they would likely have a detrimental effect on the Company's business and therefore the Board is prepared to challenge these proposals as forcibly as necessary to prevent them being enacted into legislation. It is somewhat ironic that the measures proposed by the government will reduce transparency in the landlord - lessee relationship, increase the risk to HMRC tax revenues, and undermine beer quality for drinkers. The Board looks forward to the Government exercising proper due diligence and reviewing the facts and evidence in this consultation and anticipates that if it does so, the proposals will be amended satisfactorily."

Hopefully this process will eventually be resolved in the company's favour but until this is actually confirmed it could still act as a restraint on the shareprice as the market always dislikes uncertainty!

[0rb1t] 31/5/2013 13:09

Appointment of Non-Executive Director

"Strategic Development Director of the Whitbread Beer Company, the division of Whitbread that brewed, marketed and distributed beer, which included responsibility for international operations. "

Must have some good connections in Europe and Worldwide. Could help expansion overseas.

[paulypilot] 29/5/2013 16:00

Hi Jeffian,

Well the profits warning wasn't all bad. I analysed it in a table here, where I showed the positives on the left, and the negatives on the right:
http://equityactive.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/VNET-EA-25-Feb-2013-Final.pdf

As you can see, the fuel division was expected to have a strong start to the year, no further erosion of installed base expected for Brulines, and vending orders imminent.

I think the US expansion will be good longer term (say 2 years out), but who knows? Also the dividend yield has supported the price pretty well considering, and company is adamant the dividend is safe (and it is quite well covered).

Investor expectations are very low now, so even a modest bit of good news could turn the tables here.

Management just need to deliver, and stop promising delivery that gets delayed & delayed.

Cheers, Paul.

[jeffian] 29/5/2013 15:14

Well the share price is looking a little perkier recently but I'm not sure why. The February Trading Update guided us that the results due on 11 June would be "below expectations" and all aspects of the business seemed to be plagued by weak trading or delays in new business contracts. Maybe there's better news to come from the US. I would also like to see some progress on cashless/contactless payment solutions, which looks like a great potential growth area as the core business stagnates.

[davidosh] 16/4/2013 16:15

They sold them at 4.75p I think.

[xdavid] 16/4/2013 16:05

I think that's what I just said? ;-) (got there just before you)
On the balance sheet at 533k so no real diff (but cash nice).

[strollingmolby] 16/4/2013 15:59

That announcement relates to Vianet's 7% holding in Universe Group, now sold.

[xdavid] 16/4/2013 15:58

Looks like Vianet have sold their complete holding in Universe Group UNG...


13 million shares @? UNG current price is 4.5p, so worth something around half million?

[pj 1] 16/4/2013 15:53

Silly question time but I assume Universe Group have sold up? and not transferred to any other holding accounts?

[0rb1t] 07/4/2013 19:32

I see that the USA version of the iDraught website is now up and running:



The public pages are virtually the same apart from contact details. But there is a client logon which probably allows customers to login and view their reports from the installations.

So it looks like progress is being made.

[melody9999] 05/4/2013 21:43

Out at 91p a couple of days ago.

Seems to me that this business is under pressure and the management are putting out statements that are (at best) unclear. mjames 289 a case in point. then there was the previous statement which seemed to suggest installation in 2000 pubs in the US when in fact this was just the target market. And their comment is 'no significant further erosion'. What is significant?

My discomfort may be misplaced but nevertheless strong enough for me to act. DYOR

[paulypilot] 03/4/2013 13:18

Hi,

I just took the company's most recent statement that they are not expecting any further erosion in pub numbers, at face value. There's no reason to dispute it.

Since the clients are relatively few in number (pub chains) and on long term contracts, then VNET should have a pretty good idea of what's going on.

Anyway, we'll get more info with the next set of results, due in mid-June (for year ended 31 Mar 2013).

Growth in the States is what mgt seem most excited about, where they have found the market very receptive to their iDraught product. It will obviously take a few years to build up the USA from a standing start, but they've grabbed a "one off opportunity" which arose on the demise of a competitor out there.

I don't think it's going to set the world on fire in the short term, but it should be a good growth story, and in the meantime we get a >6% dividend yield, which is well covered by cashflow from Brulines.

Regards, Paul.

[pyemckay] 03/4/2013 12:24

good spot mjames and confirms to me the trend of pubs still closing at quite a rate. our economy just flatlining wont help. jury is out on this one for me.
looks to me like vnet need growth in the states to offset the strong demise in the uk.
good luck anyway with this one holders.

[mjames20] 03/4/2013 08:28

Hi Paul,

Thank you for the reply.

This is the sentence from the interim report that I was reading:

"The core Leisure Solutions business delivered 716 new installations in the first half of the year,of which 669 were for iDraughtTM. When factoring in pub closures, the Group's installation base fell by 619 sites to just over 18,000 sites."

I took this to mean despite 716 new site installations overall number of sites fell by 619 implying a loss of 619 + 716 = 1335 sites. The assumption is that new installation = new site.

[connor23] 03/4/2013 00:04

Hi Pauly,

I am a relatively newcomer to this stock, picking some up on the recent profit warning, although it was on your blog that it was first drawn to my attention, so thank you for that.

I am excited by the opportunity that the US rollout will bring, and through a quick search on google I managed to identify some of the key personnel that make up the US team. Having spoken to management did you get much detail in regards to the company that they came from, Tapdynamics? I assume this company is no longer trading (I believe you referred to the 'demise' of a US competitor previously and I note a number of employees who left TD in Sept 2012 - thank you LinkedIn!)and Vianet are looking to simply step into their shoes in the US, going as far as to pick up their distributor Micro Matic as well. The obvious question is why did they fail? Just wondered if you had any insights.

Cheers

Conz

[paulypilot] 02/4/2013 20:27

Hi mjames20,

I'm not sure those figures are right? I thought they lost about 500 Brulines sites, and said they don't expect any further erosion from 18,000? Their clients are the big brewery chains, who need Brulines to keep track of their tenants. The clients are on long-term contracts, a lot of which were recently renewed. So it seems a reasonable assumption to me that the core business looks solid.

I understand that there is considerable appetite for iDraught in the USA, so that could become their biggest market in the long term, although like everything (especially with this company!) things take time.

We've then got 2 other potential growth areas - fuel & vending. Thrown in for free.

The Govt changing tack on the ridiculous beer tax escalator is at least the first step hopefully in the right direction. Personally I find it utterly absurd that a pint in a pub costs about £4 here on the south coast, yet you can buy a four-pack from a supermarket for less, so it's not surprising that more people are just drinking at home with their mates instead of going to the Pub.

Vending interests me the most - it could become quite exciting once they get some big contracts signed. Today's delays should be tomorrow's good news, is the way I look at it.

Cheers, Paul.

[mjames20] 02/4/2013 17:38

Paul,

Are you sure you confidence in the stability of the core business is not just based on wishful thinking by the Board?

The Board made this statement: "The Board does not expect significant further erosion in the number of the Group's installations, currently at approximately 18,000 sites."

However during the six months ended 30th Sept they lost 1335 sites (gross) out of approx 18,000 i.e 7.5% (will that annualise to 15%?). Since then the profits warning has said increased iDraught penetration has not offset the problems in the core business i.e core business continues to decline.

The retail sector remains tough in general so are the directors being a touch optimistic?

[paulypilot] 28/3/2013 13:52

jeffian,

Absolutely right. I wasn't contradicting you at all, you were correct to point out that the previous post was referring to old info. Just thought I'd add my current view on the stock to the thread.

Cheers, Paul.

[jeffian] 28/3/2013 09:35

Yes, I'm relaxed about it, Paul. I just thought post #281 was a bit misleading if people hadn't picked up that this was old information from February, prior to the profit warning.

[paulypilot] 27/3/2013 23:43

jeffian - that's right, the PER is now not as attractive in the short term, but still cheap. Although (c) has of course improved, and now enables buyers to lock in a dividend yield of well over 6%, well covered by cashflows from the core business.

I firmly believe that the patient investor should be well rewarded here.

Profit warnings are always annoying, but where 70% of turnover is on long term recurring contracts, it's not a disaster by any means. Meanwhile it just churns out great divis, whilst they focus on the new growth areas as the icing on the cake.

Cheers, PP.

[jeffian] 27/3/2013 22:56

Errm.....that was before the company said "trading for the second half of the year to 31 March 2013 will be below the expectations of the Board." So a, b and d out the window.

[welsheagle] 27/3/2013 21:11

From February's 'Company Refs', when price was 118p:-
a/ Prospective PE ratio of 6.99 (based on one broker forecast, recommending 'Buy').
b/ Forecast growth in eps of 21.3%.
c/ Dividend yield of 4.97%.
d/ Price to sales ratio of 1.45.
e/ One director buying recently.
f/ Turnover up from £17.1m to £23m in last five years.
g/ Net asset value per share of 82.8p.
h/ Positive cash flow per share of 3.24p.

Techinvest also tipping

[paulypilot] 22/3/2013 20:09

Hi,

The share price is indeed disappointing in the short term, but it doesn't alter the fact that the core Brulines business is a strong cash cow that finances a well covered dividend here.

The divis total 5.7p, and management are adamant that the dividend is safe (which I heard from the horses mouth when I phoned up the company). So at 88p mid-price that gives a superb divi yield of 6.5%, one of the best sustainable divi yields out there.

As mentioned in my most recent note on the company (link below), management have blotted their copy book somewhat by over-promising & under-delivering on the growth plans.

On the other hand, the growth prospects are thrown in for free, indeed arguably the market is putting a negative value on the growth parts of the business (vending, fuel, and USA expansion), because whilst they are loss-making, they reduce earnings. The losses are fairly small though, and there is a useful table showing the split of turnover & profits between Vianet's various activities here:


Positives are continued, and significant Director buying, including 65k shares recently after the profit warning.

I think we're all frustrated about this company, but a bit of positive newsflow could give them a nice boost back up again.
It's more a long term holding for patient investors, but still a good cash generative business.

Sorry it hasn't quite panned out as I had hoped, but it's still relatively early days yet. All my stuff is 1-2 year investing timescales. Value plays often have to fight negative sentiment to begin with, but the value should come through with patience. In the meantime we collect over 6% divis whilst we wait, not bad.

Cheers, Paul.

[mida5] 22/3/2013 16:31

harry the haddock, very true, 57% is a very bad day indeed!!

[harry the haddock] 22/3/2013 16:26

not half as disappointing as the drop in cupid!

bread and dripping for me this weekend!