Verona Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[lord buffett] 16/2/2017 15:32

It's all in the repeated mantra of 'significant shareholder value'!

Everything the management has/is doing is destroying shareholder value.

They're alright of course, they'll just reissue their options at a lower price.

All this of course, is with stock markets riding high; so what lies in wait, I hate to imagine.

[tomgreg] 16/2/2017 12:53

What is happening here? 1.25 is the equivalent of 2.5p - They'll never get the NASDAQ IPO away at that level surely?

[thebossman] 15/2/2017 13:53

A nice little earner for the Toffs,now its just like watching Valirx share price after consol...We should still be at about £1.50p if the stockmarket is not crooked,but we know its bent as hell...

[vasilis] 15/2/2017 12:22

Very true Tim but when all is said and done it will be trial results - and only trial results - that will eventually determine the success or otherwise of both Motif Bio's Iclaprim and Verona's RPL554. All the rest is intermediate detail in my book in 'getting to the promised land'.

My favourite example - Pharmacyclics - which I've mentioned before had everything from boardroom bust ups, new CEO etc whilst its share price languished at around $1. But as the trials of its drug Ibrutinib (for forms of leukaemia) went through its paces things improved until it passed Phase III when there were three sealed bids for the company. It eventually went to Abbvie for $261.25 per share.

In my experience its therefore best to focus on the trials themselves and potential market value if successful. So on that basis there is an argument for saying that if the clinical trial risks for Iclaprim and RPL554 are the same today as when 'BN'(BN = Before Nasdaq)came into the picture, then lower SPs makes it cheaper to buy those risks today than BN. And since nothing from a clinical perspective has yet changed, you could argue that this presents opportunities for other investors to get in at lower prices than one might expect. In fact, given the greater exposure which Nasdaq listings should bring, the fact that prices go in a contrary (and somewhat counter-intuitive)direction in the short term, could equally mean that SPs are more likely to react in a 'catapult' like fashion in the opposite direction on any good news. We'll see as both stories unfold.

[timbo003] 15/2/2017 08:49

The recent share price movement is a bit disappointing, but similar to that of Motif Bio immediately before it had its Nasdaq listing.

With US listings for UK listed AIM companies, be careful of what you wish for!

[phowdo] 15/2/2017 08:37

fallen from 3.8p to 2.6p since announcing they were going to list in US - Market makers just go short and cover once the placing is done.

[ewads] 14/2/2017 19:53

I'll be happy when the US funding is sorted, then progress can be made

[haff1] 13/2/2017 10:50

...I've been here years and years and have seen this sort of thing infinitum..

[trier1] 13/2/2017 10:40

Why not unexpected? Don't see why the price should make any difference.

[haff1] 13/2/2017 10:36

..not unexpected but dissappointing response in the share price ...

[thebossman] 08/2/2017 12:54

A nice little earner from New respiratory products generated sales of £1.05 billion... Lets hope the ipo in the USA we get a bit of that profit..



Sir Andrew Witty, Chief Executive Officer, GSK said:



"2016 has seen GSK perform strongly with good sales growth across all three businesses, excellent new product momentum, disciplined cost control and further pipeline progress. Core EPS for the year was 102.4p, up 12% CER and we have announced a dividend of 23 pence for the quarter, making a total dividend for shareholders of 80 pence for 2016.



"Our performance reflects the investments we have made to build new scale and sustainability in the Group and to develop new products. We expect the sales momentum of our new products to continue and, with regulatory decisions on other major product opportunities also expected this year, like Shingrix and Closed Triple, we remain confident in the financial outlook we have previously set out for investors.



"Clearly, this year we face some uncertainty as to the level of our earnings performance, given the possibility of substitutable generic competition to Advair in the US, and this is reflected in the guidance we have issued today. This event is something we have anticipated and prepared for, and whilst there will be an inevitable financial impact to absorb, we fully expect to maintain leadership in this therapy area given our new product portfolio and the innovation we have in our pipeline.



"The next 24 months will be significant for GSK's pipeline and it marks the start of another intense period of R&D activity for the company, as we expect important data read-outs on around 20-30 assets in HIV, respiratory, immuno-inflammation, oncology and vaccines.



"This quarter marks the last I will report to shareholders after nearly 10 years as CEO and more than 30 years as an employee. GSK is a very special company that touches people's lives across the world and I feel enormously privileged to have had the opportunity to lead it. I would like to thank all of GSK's employees, partners and shareholders for their support to build a company that delivers strong financial performance and meaningful contributions to society."





Full year performance summary



Group sales grew 6% (5% pro-forma) to £27.9 billion with growth across all three businesses. New Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines sales contributed significantly to the growth with sales more than doubling to £4.5 billion.



Pharmaceutical sales grew 3% (+4% pro-forma) to £16.1 billion. This reflected the continued good performance of new HIV products Tivicay and Triumeq with combined sales for the year of £2.7 billion, up 82%. Total respiratory sales grew 2%, with the continued decline in Seretide/Advair sales offset by growth in the rest of the portfolio. New respiratory products generated sales of £1.05 billion. The Vaccines business grew 14% (+12% pro-forma) to £4.6 billion. This included Meningitis vaccines Bexsero and Menveo, which had combined sales of nearly £600 million (+96%), and flu vaccines sales of £414 million, up 38%. Consumer Healthcare grew 9% (+5% pro-forma) to £7.2 billion with good contributions to growth from a number of power brands including Sensodyne, Voltaren and Panadol as well as growth from Flonase OTC.

[vasilis] 04/2/2017 13:17

Update on CF Phase 2 Trial now shows 'currently recruiting' -

Still scheduled to start this month.

[vasilis] 03/2/2017 09:15

This is the Offer document in respect of the intended floatation of Arix Bioscience - an investor in healthcare and life sciences -

A few points to note -

1 Under Highlights on page 1 it states that Arix had a 'pipeline of 452 opportunities' and directly invested in 5 of them. One of those 5 is Verona Pharma.

2 On page 9 of the document it shows Prof. Trevor Jones - formerly of this parish as an ND - is listed as an Independent Non Exec.

3 Sir Chris Evans is listed as Deputy Chairman. A reminder of his involvement with Verona -

4 Note the comment of the listed CEO Dr Joe Anderson on page 3 - 'Arix has privileged access to some of the world’s most innovative businesses.'

If you also add in the experience and knowledge of both Sir Chris and Prof. Jones in respect of Verona's RPL554, this degree of confidence shown by the Arix team in Verona should hopefully bode well for the future.

[meijiman] 25/1/2017 16:50

The share price has not been too clever of late.......

[thebossman] 25/1/2017 16:02

Drug: 1.5 mg RPL554 plus tiotropium
Drug: 6 mg RPL554 plus tiotropium
Drug: Placebo plus tiotropium



Tiotropium inhalation side effects
Get emergency medical help if you have signs of an allergic reaction: hives, itching; difficult breathing; swelling of your face, lips, tongue, or throat

wheezing, choking, or other breathing problems after using this medicine;
blurred vision, eye pain or redness, seeing halos around lights;
sores or white patches on your mouth, lips, or tongue;
pain or burning when you urinate; or
little or no urinating.
Common side effects may include:

dry mouth;
blurred vision;
constipation, painful urination;
upset stomach;
chest pain; or
cold symptoms such as stuffy or runny nose, sinus pain, sore throat.

[vasilis] 24/1/2017 09:18

New trial -

Comparison of LAMA (Tiotropium) via DPI + RPL554 or placebo via nebuliser.

Looks like Verona have chosen to go with the 6mg dose for these moderate COPD patients.

FEV1 tests look to be the main measured outcomes but also 'Time to maximum concentration' and 'halflife' will also clearly be important as regards intended future daily dosing intervals.

[timbo003] 23/1/2017 17:33

VAS agreed, I think the rationale for the product development is somewhat weak, not least because of the delivery method.

I'm in London tomorrow anyway for a VCT meeting, so by going along to the Mereo presentation to make good use of my time whilst there. They have three molecules in their development pipeline, all of them are from Novartis (Presumably Novartis were not sufficiently impressed with any of the three molecules to develop them themselves).

[vasilis] 23/1/2017 17:04

Tim

There's also the straightforward comparison of delivery mechanism - RPL554 (direct inhaler) v BCT-197 (orally with fluids). Bearing in mind both molecules are looking to act as treatments for exacerbations, why would patients choose a 'pill' over a directly targetted inhaled treatment? By definition an inhaled treatment should generate a much quicker response time - which is surely a prime requirement for exacerbations in my view.

[timbo003] 23/1/2017 13:47

Mereo BioPharma Group (MPH) are presenting at the Share's Magazine investor seminar tomorrow which I will attend (I don't hold)


One of their compounds is of particular interest as it is being developed to treat COPD (and asthma?) exacerbations, so it is going to be interesting to hear about their clinical strategy and whether they are going to be using the same endpoints as Verona in their POC and pivotal clinical studies (i.e. reduced hospital admission/re-admission rate)


It looks like they are not, but instead going for reductions in FEV


If I was a shareholder, I don't think I would be too happy about that!

[vasilis] 23/1/2017 10:29

CF trial still expected to start next month yet 'not yet open for participant recruitment' in late January.

The previous expected start date was November 2016 as shown in the links in Tim's post above - which just happens to be the date Kathy Abbott-Banner left VRP to join GSK -

Causation or just a correlation of events?

[timbo003] 22/1/2017 21:53

>>bewise
thanks for reminding us about the forthcoming CF study, there seems to have been a bit of slippage in the start date, so lets hope it does now kick off in February


I'm still a bit puzzled why they are not including a chloride sweat test as one of the secondary measures, it seems like an easy and obvious parameter to measure.

[bewise2] 21/1/2017 22:30

Cf trial expected to commence next month...

[shakin not stirred] 20/1/2017 22:53

The belief is that the minimum share price on the nasdaq is $2 so that will happen and in my mind we will be fully subscribed and job don e with enough money to take it to commercialisation and GSK or alternatively large paharma like Bayer to buy a huge lump of shares, followed by a partnership deal. 9p equivalent old money this year and 20p eventual. All very good news.

[thebossman] 20/1/2017 15:19

Vas..I guessed that we were going to consol,a hint could have been mentioned.10 for 1,20 for 1 etc. I now know i need more than 2 bucks a share to breakeven...