Verona Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[timbo003] 01/2/2016 15:16

Thanks corbs

I will re-vamp the header with those expected timelines and include a link to the slide set.

[corbine] 01/2/2016 14:54

tim/vas there was also a set of slides on the you tube video with a separate link on the shareprohets website, not sure if people have had site of the slides?
sp site, look for link its powerpoint presentation.
also noted within slides...

Multiple value creation opportunities in 2016 and 2017


2016
Q1 data from Phase 2a asthma study
Q2 data from RPL554+SoC combination study
Q3 PK, safety, bronchodilator data in cystic fibrosis
Q3 start first COPD Ph2b study
Q4 start CF PoC study
Q4 start Ph2b study in acute COPD exacerbations

2017
2H Phase 2b data in COPD
2H PoC data in CF
2H Ph2b data in acute COPD exacerbations

Verona Pharma - Realising multiple value creation opportunities with a unique respiratory product RPL554
Contact

Significant backing by institutional investors
Source : Argus Vickers

[digger18] 30/1/2016 18:16

RNS March 2014
I agree wth Vas that a partnership is the most likely.
"The Board believes that the new strategy will
accelerate access to multi-billion dollar commercial markets and increase the
flexibility in the timing for achieving attractive commercial partnerships"

At the same time, they did raise 14m in March 2014 from a placement, subscription and OO, so some big investors were happy to take a Risk! Especially as this was a new BOD and JAK at the helm. The previous BOD had focussed on Asthma and at this point, it moved to COPD. Why ? Did someone, or an organisation encourage him to go down this road? Why would new investors back this NEW approach ? JAK has always emphasised the nebulised approach to specifically target a "proposition" of a reduction in hospital re admissions in the U.S. Based on this new approach, he has also said on many occasions that he intends to return " significant" shareholder value, and would not compromise that.
He also mentions in the recent presentation that if necessary "50 reps" could market the nebulised version. This would obviously have to executed by a distribution partner, but of course this could be with a minor player and not necessarily a major.
I have been here since 2009 and I am happy that we are finally getting somewhere. 2016 will be an Intesting year. The only thing I would say, is that the directors are fully loaded with shares and have multi million options, so if they need another raise, any dilution would not affect them as much as PI's. Hopefully not the case.

[bangbang1] 29/1/2016 15:23

Great points made, Ebsworth said at the agm, £30M Min for phase 2b trial.

What it seems from videom there looking at other options than a placing.

[vasilis] 29/1/2016 15:00

BB1

1 Our current market cap at c.3p is c. £30m - see Hardman report 7.1.16 link above.

2 As the Hardman report also states, median prices for Phase II respiratory assets are c. £190m or 19p per share.

3 Even accepting your estimate of Phase IIb trial costs at £30m, that equates to roughly 15% (£30m as a percentage of true asset price of £190m after current trial results known and proved positive) of the LOWEST price - ie 19p per share - any bidder could concievably make with any hope of success post successful trial results.

4 Given the above, the choice for Big Pharma would be (a) pay £30m to fund the Phase IIb trial for a share of future profits, or (b) bid for the company. In effect this becomes a classic example of putting 'options theory' into practice. In other words, if I as Big Pharma pay you, VRP £30m to fund the trial, then my maximum loss should Phase IIb fail for any reason is £30m. If I buy you out at £190m and take on Phase IIb trials which then fail, the loss is a minimum of £190m to buy you as VRP PLUS £30m to fund the trial.

That's how calculations are made by Big Pharma in my experience. The only other alternative is for VRP to go it alone and go for a placing on the back of successful trial results, but even if successful that would result in massive dilution for current shareholders. £30m is our current valuation so it would be tantamount to halving this (1.5p per share) if £30m in new shares was raised. Somehow I don't see that. Ergo, my money's on a partnership arrangement of some kind post current trial results with a major player stumping up what would be for them 'options money'. Any sale would only make sense post successful Phase IIb results at the earliest for VRP shareholders - depending as I've said above that even then it's seen by a majority of shareholders as 'an offer we cannot refuse'. Otherwise we'll have to partner again for Phase III trials - and I'm sure that there will almost certainly be more than one major Pharma willing to participate if we reach the milestone of successful Phase IIb trials.

[bangbang1] 29/1/2016 13:21

Personally I think Phase 2b is too big for them.

they need to put the company up for sale.

Phase2b will cost £30 Million +. Verona cannot not handle that type of money.

the trial will take 2 or more years to complete.

[corbine] 29/1/2016 13:17

vas-timbo etc, further thought

patents? ;-)
we have many applied etc over past few years, Jan mentioned the patents during q&a
for future use, maybe patents should have been high on the agenda showing we covering all corners, rather than q&a, the patents part should be explained early on in any future presentations?
puts investors minds at rest, should also have a little more depth on our patents during any presentation, hence reassuring and investors should not be needing to ask that question if addressed within presentation?
an important part of vrp during the correct diligence early on (costly) so investors can see we have wisely spent monies on them already?
just an after thought?
corbs:-)
breathe easy folks :-)

[corbine] 29/1/2016 12:02

thanks vas-well written-did u notice that the graph for fev1 and duration/eficcacy (wish i could spell) was posted for previous trials, i always refer to fev 1 as the holy grail for copd drugs as its a gold standard and although dated gives the resp teams a good insight into copd progression-did u note that most recent rials that we assume were successful, vrp held back on the fev1 graph? i have yet to see it, have you? or have i missed it somewhere?
im hoping dr singh and co when doing pft test also do more thorough tests as their lab as well equipped to do them all, same as transplant resp pft rooms-there is a whole range of pft's which give a better picture into the copd disease/progression etc and of course ct scans are the best but never used in trials (bullae, atelectasis, bronchiectasis, cancers, nodules etc).
im of the understanding that dlco (gas exchange) is very much underused during nhs pft tests) yet is a hugely important marker into the disease. one can have say 40% fev1-severe and only 20% dlco and more symptomatic. ive read that dlco will never improve. seeing as 554 has pft tests with patients, why dont they do a full pft suite, i ask because there is a possibility they might notice other benefits in the pft readings, not just the gold standard fev1? which as we have seen was over 15% increase on earlier 554 studies.
its a complicated issue im trying to raise here, not expensive for dr singh and vrp to do and i think its worth doing during trials with humans that have the copd.??
ps if youve seen latest graphs let me know? thanks

[vasilis] 29/1/2016 11:47

Hi Corbs

Trust you are in good spirits today.

The reasoning behind my view that commencement to Phase III is probably where we exit is based on :-

1 The opportunity - assuming trials are successful - is potentially very large as you point out in more than one clinical area. If the omens after the trials are looking that good then the choice Big Pharma would make is whether to (a)'make us an offer we couldn't refuse' and thereby hope to gain in a longer term, post Phase III scenario, or, go for a partnership now and risk paying multiples of a pre-Phase III market price to take over VRP later on. And don't forget that another bidder could come in post Phase III that could push the price very much higher to any offered by an existing partner as I pointed out some time ago in the case of the takeover of Pharmacyclics in the USA. Put yourself in Big Pharmas shoes. What would you do? And what would most VRP shareholders do if made a very generous offer pre-Phase III trials?

2 I got the distinct impression from the video that a pre-Phase III deal is the preference for the BOD of VRP but I may be wrong. After all, the BOD would no doubt all be very well looked after post any bid situation plus ALL the risks associated with the Phase III trials would transfer lock stock and barrel to Big Pharma. That is also a very significant point to think about.

On the other matters, I think issues such as hospital re-admissions, dosing, exacerbations, life expectancy etc are critical both here and in the USA. And clearly countries such as China - which I know from my own visits there - has - and will continue to have - huge clinical needs for all kinds of lung diseases from both smoking and pollution of one kind or another. There is no doubt regarding the potential of RPL554 - but it all costs a great deal of money which we don't have.

Let's wait and see the trial results first. As JAK rightly says, after that who knows what may or may not happen. So, partnership or deal? Let's hope that as shareholders the upcoming trial results mean that we actually have that choice to make!

[corbine] 29/1/2016 11:00

Hi Vasilis, Id like to see a partnership rather than an outright sale if 554 is a green light for phase 3, in turn id like to say if we were bought out at that stage when the phase 3 is a green light, i doubt true value would be gained for vrp even if someone paid say £100million for us, -yeh i know profit is profit, but a partnership to cover the phase 3 costs and say royalties etc, would enable the full benefit of vrp to be realised for the whole range of copd diseases included the asthma overlap (asthams is not technically copd?) but does overlap it, im also thinking of the potential as yet discovered with cystic fibrosis, if in time 554 goes green light with cystic fibrosis another market door is opened as with other bronchial diseases associated with copd or not, ie if the benefits are proven, not only will it be symptom control, keeping patients out of er on 30 day readmissions which even the nhs have figures for re costs, but patient qulaity of life will be improved and if 554 can show improvements in pft-fev1 etc in theory 554 will be extending copders lives, as well as improving their symptoms and possibly therefore slowing the progression of the disease.

think i recall from respiratory consultants within nhs copd (eg emphysema is know on average to show a decline of 2% per year within non smoking groups who have been detected, treated, monitored ), the decline is far worse in pft% per year in those that persist in smoking even when using puffers(salbutomols/ventolin/nebulisers etc.

as for heart rate re side effects of say 100bpm, this is nothing concerning, when a patient is in exacerbation they are usually showing hear rates over 100bpm anyway without treatment, due to nature of the exacerbation and heart working harder due to the relationship with the lungs and copd.

so much promise for 554, first in class. novel and unique in design.
jmo dyor etc :-)

[vasilis] 29/1/2016 10:30

I've watched the video through a couple of times and JAK is clearly upbeat about the expectations from trial results to come over the next few months and looking to probably progress RPL554 via a partnership following successful trial results rather than say a placing. Of course, he doesn't rule out VRP being approached by a bidder and even gives an example of such a case in the Q&A session at the end. However, he does clearly state that these things cannot be predicted and if they happen then they will happen - but Big Pharma will probably wait till the drug has shown enough promise that it can enter Phase III trials before any such bid may appear. Which seems to suit VRP just fine because that is where the maximum value is as JAK points out. After all, there's no way in my view a company the size of VRP can handle a Phase III study in such areas as COPD, asthma and cystic fibrosis on its own - so it's an ideal point to 'exit'.

One point JAK made that did seem to go unnoticed was when he pointed out to the audience the safety profile of RPL554 in comparison to the long standing current steroid based medicines. He said as most here already know is that even if you increase the RPL554 dose by 10 or even 20 times all you get is a slight increase in heartbeat which you get anyway from even low doses of current medicines - as well as all the other nastier side effects associated with current medicines. Whilst JAK did try to point this out - and the obvious positive benefits of RPL554s safety profile to VRP - I don't think that message got through - especially not to the person who at the very end asked 'what's COPD?' Enough said.

Anyhow, whichever way you look at this it's all down to the upcoming trial results. All to play for if the results match our expectations. Fingers crossed!

PS : I agree Corbs that JAK should take more care over who is his audience and what they may or may not know. And it's a golden rule that you should not assume that everyone listening knows all the associated acronyms - as was demonstrated at the end. This was clearly a non-medical audience and needed things explained in much plainer language.

[steven1404] 28/1/2016 22:50

No deal until the papers are signed just speculation but lets hope we have a good year..........

[bladeboy1] 28/1/2016 22:24

RPL554 has sold its self(deal done in first half)

[just_banter] 28/1/2016 21:13

Great link. Verona will be put up for sale imo

[corbine] 28/1/2016 17:12

such an opportunity to go into more depth and explanations as to what 554 is and its applications etc. i think the point re nebbed use etc was a mixed message and lost in translation re costs etc-especially during q&a after which could have been far more thorough?
maybe in future design a thorough q&a sheet with many more questions and answers as many appear to struggle with the very concept of hoe the lungs work, what an exacerbation really is etc etc etc. and not enough credit was given to 554 and how they have tweaked it to date.
As for potential partners etc? and costs moving forward.
practice makes perfect?
:-)

[timbo003] 28/1/2016 16:56

Thanks corbs, I've put a link to the youtube video in the header, although I'm not sure that it should be categorised on youtube as Comedy!

[corbine] 28/1/2016 15:02

4mins in says new data coming in, over next month, 2 months and 3 months.
cool (4mins in)
also on you tube..

crank the volume up to hear him folks :-)

[corbine] 28/1/2016 14:54

video from shareprophhets with Jan
on todays blog. ive filed this as a goo shortener due to filter.

Corbs:-)

[aimshares] 26/1/2016 08:41

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=67&ved=0ahUKEwihs73QicfKAhVBDQ4KHcjADI04PBAWCB8wBg&url=http%3A%2F%2Fbiotechandmoney.com%2F2016%2F01%2F22%2Fones-to-watch-life-science-showcases-announced-at-biotech-and-money-london-2016%2F&usg=AFQjCNFcDSsnk1kniakEMI__L6vdFbMR0g

[aimshares] 21/1/2016 12:29

RNS director buy http://www.investegate.co.uk/verona-pharma-plc--vrp-/rns/director-dealing/201601211224426095M/

[mortimer7] 19/1/2016 11:09

Another day of share price capitulation, and today it's contrary to the market.
Now down to 2.2p, only 6 weeks or so since David Ebsworth invested £12k at 3.25pps.
I considered averaging down but am concerned a fund raise will be necessary soon on the basis of the cash burn rate from the 6 month interims.
Could do with some good news!

[meijiman] 12/1/2016 16:50

Good thoughtful post.