Vernalis Share Discussion Threads

[romeike] 06/2/2018 12:58

Most retail investors out of this, just institutional investors caught in a value trap left. I can see Vernalis set for a break up, with the unsuccessful, ridiculously expensive CEO ditched, under-worked sales team sacked and licenses sold off for whatever can be gleaned from them. The remaining cash should be put into making the research side consistently profitable and any pretension about becoming a commercial pharma put out of mind as unattainable. They had their chance, they've burned millions of pounds and they fu*&ed up by making themselves wholly dependent on a junior partner over whom they have zero control. It would have been cheaper just to have bought Tris than see millions squandered here through their outright incompetence.

[pugg1ey] 05/2/2018 14:22

but they are struggling to sell cold medicine in a peak cold season....

[pugg1ey] 05/2/2018 14:15

£48.9million (cash and cash equivalents) in mid December and were burning £2.2million/month from that update

[buywell3] 29/1/2018 17:07

So what are the cash and assets worth ?

IP asset wise seems to valued by the market at ZIPPO

[romeike] 29/1/2018 17:04

Bottom feeders - the problem is that the company could very well be on the edge of crisis, with massive cash burn from escalating costs, and poor revenue growth with some analysts pencilling in a potential $43 million loss for 2018, with the firm failing to hit its own targets for prescription growth on Tuzistra XR despite the most severe cold/flu season in a decade.

[fhmktg] 25/1/2018 17:18

Somebody could pick this up soon and strip it for its cash and assets!

[fhmktg] 25/1/2018 14:14

Some modest buying today.....possible resolution of the Tris issues coming?

[romeike] 18/1/2018 17:42

Most severe flu in a hundred years and they still fail to achieve the exponential increase in scrips required to justify their strategy.

Tuzistra XR is by now clearly a hopeless product, an expensive option in a market dominated by cheap quick fixes and a political environment hostile to costly drugs and codiene based formulations.

Management should all be sacked for having missed the opportunity to sell three products into this severe cold and flu season.

[bountyhunter] 19/12/2017 11:35

I agree with romeike 100% - personally I wouldn't buy in either even at this level - I can't see any positives at all any more - maybe someone else can.
imho fwiw nai

[fhmktg] 18/12/2017 16:23

Maybe sell the 'rights' to either Tris or a US based company to recover some of the development money?

[romeike] 18/12/2017 16:20

I wouldn't buy in mate - even if they pulled off their stated strategy in terms of product launches (which is already massively off track), I think they'd still be struggling to bring in enough cash to pay their outrageously expensive CEO.

It very much looks like 5 years from now they'll have some of the intended products on the market generating small surplus revenues that will constitute a small fraction of the many, many millions of dollars put into getting them there.

They'd be better to dump the sales team, cancel the products altogether and put the cash they have now into making their research business properly profitable.

[meijiman] 18/12/2017 12:01

Any views here -is this cheap or just a real crock?

[bountyhunter] 14/12/2017 18:27

Interesting but please explain relevance here?

[buywell3] 14/12/2017 18:20

Around 1 in every 1500 people alive in the UK are CJD carriers

Prion disease is CJD

It takes decades to activate in most cases

In some cases gene dependent , it can activate sooner

In some cases it never activates

Nearly 35% of people that are carriers will activate IF they live long enough ie over 85 plus




Prion Protein Disease is the root cause of Alzheimer's , Huntingdon's, Parkinsons, Dementia and others


Prion-like Behavior in the Huntingtin Protein
By ocords 06 May, 2015 Protein Aggregation
Prion-Like Behavior in the Huntingtin Protein:

Protein aggregates are a hallmark feature of Huntington’s disease (HD)[1], as well as a number of other neurodegenerative diseases. These protein aggregates, composed of misfolded proteins that clump together, are traditionally thought to develop in vulnerable neurons individually. However, recent research suggests that these misfolded proteins may be transmitted from neuron to neuron.



Is Parkinson’s A Prion Disease?
By Neuroskeptic | October 14, 2017


The Journal of Neuroscience recently featured a debate over the hypothesis that Parkinson’s disease is, at least in some cases, caused by a prion-like mechanism – misfolded proteins that spread from neuron to neuron.





Prion-like propagation of mutant SOD1 misfolding and motor neuron disease spread along neuroanatomical pathways.
Ayers JI1, Fromholt SE2, O'Neal VM2, Diamond JH2, Borchelt DR2,3.

A hallmark feature of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is that symptoms appear to spread along neuroanatomical pathways to engulf the motor nervous system, suggesting a propagative toxic entity could be involved in disease pathogenesis.



Are Prions behind All Neurodegenerative Diseases?

Evidence mounts that chain reactions involving toxic proteins link Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s and more

[meijiman] 14/12/2017 14:40

Who is the Chairman? -it's his job to get rid of an underperforming ceo.
Woodford has completely lost the plot.

[cockneytrader] 14/12/2017 14:25

I got out in the late 40's, why Woodford held on is beyond me?

[lcwanderer] 14/12/2017 13:21

The share price has gone from 86p to 8.6p in just over two years under the stewardship of Ian Garland.

In any other line of work such an incompetent managerial record would result in the sack.

[romeike] 14/12/2017 09:17

Sold out the last of this today, this has turned into one right DOG of a stock. Far better opportunities available elsewhere and looks like it is going to be blunder after blunder into crisis here. An over reliance on releasing expensive products into a rapidly declining market that more than ever is looking at costs and opiate dependency is just not a go-er.

[romeike] 14/12/2017 08:52

Only 85% increase in prescriptions isn't good enough at this point, there's an awful lot now resting on this winter season to try and prove this product can sell. Interesting that the company is so focused on numbers of prescriptions rather than actual sales revenue. Company needs to reconsider if it is worth releasing the remaining narcotic based products at all.

Looks like little real progress on other areas of the strategy.

[cromwells revenge] 12/12/2017 12:02

That's me out with a profit of £85. Should be enough to cover the cost of a trip to the Museum of Agriculture and the Preservation of ponies

[romeike] 12/12/2017 11:57

Tris have a blanket policy on non-disclosure, I doubt that we will see any more information coming out. Think this share is definitely one for the bottom drawer. If they turn things around then fantastic but for now it looks bad, though I think the current share price probably overstates how bad.

[romeike] 05/12/2017 14:14

@hvs Cash burn is far too high given the situation - they have positioned for selling four products, and were counting on those extra revenues to pay for it all, but the reality now is that the sales team are only selling one product, and one that while selling at decent volume is returning less revenues than forecast, presumably due to a greater than expected reliance on coupons and sampling.

As it stands the current set up is completely unsustainable. 6 months on from the first failure there is no news on resubmission of the new products and equally Garland has now certainly broken his 12 month promise (later revised to 18 months) to sort out Moxatag supply. Yes there has been some suggestion of a resolution but no details released that would indicate if the product will even make a material return for Vernalis under the new supply arrangements.

From an investment point of view a disaster isn't even required by the way, stagnation is bad enough when there are so many other successful companies with effective management teams out there led by better CEOs on much smaller remuneration. The recent hammering of pharma companies like Shire, GSK and Allergan provides an excellent opportunity to reduce and derisk here and make up the losses elsewhere.

[fhmktg] 23/11/2017 11:19

No cashNo credibility with customersNo credibility in the financial market$60 million of cash burnt.

[hvs] 23/11/2017 09:08

If there is any further delay VER could run out of cash in 2019 and disaster looms!

What disaster ????

IDIOTS abound.