Venture Production Share Discussion Threads

[phillis] 18/8/2009 20:25

That's better
From Post 6856 re Alphaville:

¦ We think Venture offers good value – buy on any weakness
We think the fact that Centrica only received acceptances to its 845p/sh offer for Venture from owners of 10.9% of the current issued capital (equivalent to 15.5% of the shares not owned by Centrica) supports our view that Venture's real value is comfortably above the level of the offer. We reiterate our Buy stance on Venture and our 950p/sh target price. We would view any short term weakness in Venture as a buying opportunity.
¦ Centrica offer: acceptances only take potential interest to 40.8%
Centrica announced yesterday (the first closing of its offer for Venture) that it had acceptances from owners of 10.9% of the current share capital (9.4% fully diluted). On top of its own 29.9% (25.8% diluted) this would take it's the total of acceptances to 40.8% (35.2% diluted). Centrica requires 50% acceptance on a diluted basis for the offer to go unconditional, although it may decide on a lower acceptance provided this exceeds 50% of the then exercisable voting rights. Centrica's offer has now been extended until 1300 on 28th August, two days after planned completion of the European Commission's review, and the final possible date of the offer is 14th September. Centrica reiterated that the 845p/sh offer is final but reserve the right to revise/increase it if a competitive situation arises.

[o1lman] 18/8/2009 19:39

tks guys, if it is fully diluted they have no chance IMO.

[hysteron] 18/8/2009 19:32

From the offer document, fully diluted is the answer or is it?

Reduction of the Acceptance Condition

The Offer is conditional, amongst other things, on valid acceptances being received (and not, where permitted, withdrawn) by 13 August 2009 so as to result in Centrica Resources having received pursuant to the Offer or otherwise such number of Shares so as to give it an interest of over 50 per cent. of the fully diluted ordinary share capital of Venture or such lower percentage as Centrica Resources may decide provided that such condition will not be satisfied unless Centrica Resources and/or any other members of the Centrica Group shall have acquired or agreed to acquire, whether pursuant to the Offer or otherwise, Shares carrying in aggregate more than 50 per cent. of the voting rights then normally exercisable at general meetings of Venture (the "Acceptance Condition"). Centrica Resources reserves the right to reduce the percentage of Shares required to satisfy the Acceptance Condition at any time prior to all the Conditions being satisfied, fulfilled or, where permitted, waived.

[phillis] 18/8/2009 19:27

I can't rightly recall ( and I am just about to have some nosh) but I remember reading something that said they would go unconditional as to acceptances at 50.001% on the issued share capital provided that there had been no trigger on the to be issued capital (or I guess any part of it)

Make sense?

[o1lman] 18/8/2009 19:13

Phillis as our resident 50% expert can u tell me do CNA need 50.1 % of the existing shares in issue or do they need 50.1% of shares on a fully diluted basis.

[phillis] 18/8/2009 18:29

Time for MW to open his bag and we will see if it is good enough

[hysteron] 18/8/2009 18:12

COCO lol, Ludlow is a wise man that's for sure :o)

[bountyhunter] 18/8/2009 17:39

interims tomorrow

[o1lman] 18/8/2009 17:19

Guess the market is coming round to the view that CNA is not going to get VPC for 845p.

[coco] 18/8/2009 17:13

Probably Ludlow closing his short.

[hysteron] 18/8/2009 17:09

Anyone care to guess as to why VPC finished at the offer price today, I'm guessing that there are rumours of an agreed offer. Love to spread rumours.

[davidhp] 18/8/2009 10:07

scatty : Sure they do! I too would advise a client to buy 'gold ingots' for 20p each if they had the chance too! Unfortunately nobody is selling gold ingots (or gas fields!) at such a discount, even in this climate.

However, the Centrica offer is NOT a good deal for VPC and even if CNA has a gas supply problem making a poor and badly thought out offer for VPC that would be rejected out of hand by most investors illustrates a genuine lack of intelligent management up at CNA. A better offer would have sailed through and it reflects badly on Centrica. The wasted time and effort could have been avoided. I won't be holding CNA anytime soon with that bad management in charge. Kinda explains the reasons WHY they need VPC so badly doesn't it? A poor management team at the head of a large concern like Centrica must worry their shareholders!

[bountyhunter] 18/8/2009 08:09

"Last week Venture supplied data showing that the share price of its peer group, as well as the cost of oil and gas for delivery in 2011, had all risen sharply in recent weeks, suggesting that its price is being held down by the Centrica offer.

Yesterday, Venture also announced a new gas discovery in the east Irish Sea, with the Whitbeck exploration well finding a reservoir with a gas column 120ft deep.

Analysts at Evolution Securities said the discovery could add around 20p a share to Venture's fair value"

[scatty] 17/8/2009 21:31

I believe most institutions consider CNA's move on VPC very sensible. Once CNA broke-cover in March with the Schroders and Aberdeen stakes (i.e. to 22%), most commentators assumed CNA would wish to take the remainder, and expected an offer to be pitched at 950p or higher. There have been developments since, with equity markets and oil markets up significantly. Gas futures remain strong (although summer spot prices remain weak). VPC reserves have increased and the Nuon agreement underpins valuation measures. If VPC falls to CNA, that should be positive to CNA. If VPC holds out, I think CNA will be back soon - either way should be good for VPC and CNA shareholders.

[phillis] 17/8/2009 18:32

You will probably go the way of Mr (Hewlett) Packard

Just focus on why instutions should/should not continue to hold VPC
That is the only issue here

[davidhp] 17/8/2009 18:20

Oh give it a rest, Phillis... there're bigger fish to fry than you.
Go induce yawns elsewhere, Mrs Shilling.

Before you go, care to comment re. the Alt-A mortgages in the usa? Or doesn't Centrica allow employees to have opinions about real issues affecting the market in general?

[phillis] 17/8/2009 18:10

HP
Still here but nothing to say until 28 Aug
Unless of course you and OIL et al start making ridiculous claims about process.
All I have done is point out what will really happen if 50%+ is achieved.
Who knows what the outcome will be except that we can be pretty sure there is now no competitive bidder
So its down to MW to convince the remainder of his shareholding base that they will get better value long term by staying with the status quo

[gclark] 17/8/2009 17:06

David

I share your viewpoint on what is happening, and I do expect some crash in Sept/Oct as stock markets have gone too far too quick - they always tend to over-react. And when MS or GS economists talk about a V-shaped recovery because of pent-up demand, I think they are outside the real world, probably just referring to their colleagues who are now receiving huge bonuses again for some successful gambling on commodities. There are so many other things that can go wrong - Eastern Europe (Slovakia is suffering exceptionally due to its high reliance on car production, debt in these countries, California, a massive economy in itself, is in financial chaos, unemployment in Spain is 20%+ etc etc). Previously household debt was supporting the economy, that has been replaced by government/taxpayer debt, and this will have to be repaid. How do economists think there is going to be a rapid recovery with rising taxes and interest rates?

Back to Venture, whilst I think CNA is undervaluing the company, I am one of those who accepted the offer. I need the cash and also want to be in cash for what I see coming, which is a marked correction in shares.

But I could be absolutely wrong. This is, of course, my opinion and my trading strategy, which others can do what they like with.

[extrader] 17/8/2009 15:05

Hi David,

Pls provide a link to your reference to USA mortgage recasts, since without it your comment comes across as just another bit of alarmist wind! ;>

TIA

[cwa1] 17/8/2009 11:05

Good to see them bringing things forward. I reckon that every ounce of good news will be extracted from the company and distilled into the accounts. Here's hoping anyway.

[o1lman] 17/8/2009 10:57

Back to business VPC have brought forward their interim results to this Wednesday, thus they will be able to have a briefing as well, sensible tactic.

[cb7] 17/8/2009 10:56

nah, he's got 3 A's and is at Uni... but standards arnt dropping, honest!