Venture Production Share Discussion Threads

[phillis] 06/8/2009 16:24

If/when CHA pass 50.001% they will go unconditional immediately. Acceptances are then solid
OIL has been reading too much about 21 days before final unconditionality

This period is for the BUYER's protection so that they can waive the conditions one by one.
Be sure they will be immediately waived to prevent a white knight offer. If there is such a thing then it will have to be tabled before first closing

[extrader] 06/8/2009 16:03

Phillis,

Your comment is fair enough as and when acceptances become irrevocable. Until then, they can usually be revoked if a better offer comes along and the 'acceptor' wishes to change his/her/their mind.

HTH

[phillis] 06/8/2009 15:37

for goodness sake OIL if CNA get over 50% accepetances they OWN/CONTROL the Company and there is ZERO chance of a white knight

How many more times?

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/8/2009 15:33

Learnt something earlier which I wasn't aware of. CNA hope to get regulatory approval for the bid by Aug 26th. If they get EC approval, they can then make a mandatory offer & buy stock in the market

[cb7] 06/8/2009 15:08

but hold on a minute, why should they be quite willing to offer more in a bid scenario, when they are telling us VPC is only worth 845 and not a penny more? CNA want it both ways!
I've been in lots of takeovers, they always say final. It doesnt have any meaning in law. Its like the deadline, thats never final either.
There was an article, maybe in IC, which said that the battle would be won or lost with the decision of several cos that hold 2-4% each, from memory Axa, L&G etc.

[o1lman] 06/8/2009 12:42

Mick re the hostile bid u are correct, do not know if it changes if it becomes an agreed bid, of course if VPC are as undervalued as we all think, the possibility of a white knight appearing should not be underestimated if CNA receive over 50% acceptances.

[mickinvest] 06/8/2009 12:19

CB7

That still doesn't answer my question on Centrica's wording?

The Offer is final and will not be increased, except that Centrica Resources reserves the right to revise and/or increase the Offer if a competitive situation arises.

From my reading, it looks like this is Centrica's final offer unless a competitive bid arises therefore they cannot offer an extra quid even if they wanted to or can someone tell me differently???????

Mick

[cb7] 06/8/2009 12:10

Mick, although I think Arclight or Kinch were after £10, they may settle for 950 or thereabouts, as Churchill suggests...it would then be an agreed offer.
Also, regardless of another bidder, which I think has always been a non-starter, if they want the remaining shares and I am sure they do, then they will have to pay more.

[mickinvest] 06/8/2009 11:58

CB7

You mention CNA should add an extra quid to seal the deal but haven't they said they will not increase the offer unless a third party appear with a higher offer?

I was under the impression they can no longer up their offer?

Mick

[churchill2] 06/8/2009 11:10

I agree with CB7. The odds are on a meeting between Sam and Mike. A revised offer between £9-50 and £9.75. Mike Wagstaff will acknowledge that although it undervalues Venture it is the best offer they will get. This will get a recommendation by the Venture board and shareholders apart from Hysteron will accept its the end of the road.

[cb7] 06/8/2009 10:01

I am a longstanding sizeable shareholder. As much as I have always liked VPC, we should not let emotions get in the way, afterall our money is at stake. A clear head and trying to look objectively is the best way.
Is my money at risk? Well, larger shareholders than me are advising and will say no. So I am holding fire.
If CNA get a large %, they will then extend the deadline for others to accept. If they dont, they can walk away and wait, or they can offer more. Now it seems clear to me that CNA want VPC, you must remember that. And I think they want them before this winter. So the logical thing to do is wait. Either, I will get the 845p if CNA are successful or they will have to bid higher. (I have already posted that an extra quid would only cost around £100m)
CNA have played a blinder and even with a higher bid, will still get VPC for a good price. Much of what they say seems to ring true, but only on the surface. I dont buy their arguement that VPC will have to raise funds. Nor do I think their assessment of assets is correct. The North Sea is one of the best mapped and understood oil regions, yet they seem to ignore this and say that even probable reserves are debateable, let alone contingent.If I dont believe these aspects, why should I give their other reasons credibility.

[cwa1] 06/8/2009 09:30

Well played lads :-)

[phillis] 06/8/2009 08:23

OK H

Issues only

[hysteron] 05/8/2009 23:05

Bounty you are right, of course CNA ignore that because they want to win. Expect more in the near future including more Shill's on this board of which Phillis isn't one that's for sure.

Phillis stop calling me Hysterical and I'll stop abusing you. Truce?

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/8/2009 23:01

CNA were objecting to a price double today's being used as a starting point, from which it was assumed pricers would then increase 80%

.." The RISC Report is based on theoretical gas prices that include an 80 per cent. increase in nominal terms over the next five years, from a starting level that is almost double the current price of approximately 23 pence/therm. "

Currently there is a shedload of LNG looking for a home, with stacks of new capacity in the pipeline. Dragon & Usle of Grain are likely to be kept quite busy

[bountyhunter] 05/8/2009 22:27

going back to my earlier post the futures market for UK gas (which is conveniently never mentioned by CNA) has the all important UK gas price in a year's time at around twice that of today's price which supports yesterday's independent valuation ( )...

[phillis] 05/8/2009 20:34

Hysterical

I know you are used to putting "al" at the end of your words but "strategic" is sufficient

What happens in 12 months time if the oil price is $40.
What will the rediue of VPC be worth then?

[hysteron] 05/8/2009 19:26

I'd also be surprised if they got a lot more than 50%, might not even make that.

There is their problem they need 75% to get VPC delisted and having stated that they won't increase their offer, this has to be a strategical mistake IMO since they will have to wait another 12 months.

I can also wait 12 months and any offer then will be far in excess of 845p, it will have to meet Arclight and Larry Kinch's valuation of the company at that time.

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/8/2009 19:08

I'm not talking about the offer price...... never mind. You'll probably get to keep your shares anyway - CNA might get their 50%, would be very surprised if they got a lot more

[hysteron] 05/8/2009 18:38

Geraldo, In case you haven't noticed the offer is 845p not a tenner.
I'm only going to tell you this once more because you obviously don't read the posts thoroughly enough. I don't give a monkeys about a tenner today or if it takes 3 years. This is personal now and I won't be ripped off by CNA which is what IMHO they are attempting to do to ordinary shareholders with their pathetic bid.

I will take my chances with VPC.

[bountyhunter] 05/8/2009 18:33

according to the futures market the price of UK gas will be around double what it is now in just 3 mths time, and this is what has to be paid now to secure winter gas supplies...



of course this doesn't get a mention in Centrica's response!

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/8/2009 18:28

Re NPV..... which you rather have... a tenner today or a tenner in 3 years?

[hysteron] 05/8/2009 18:25

I love you guys, you give me a laugh.

xxx Hys.