Venture Life Investors - VLG

Venture Life Investors - VLG

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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type
Venture Life Group Plc VLG London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price Last Trade
-13.25 -27.6% 34.75 09:20:39
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
41.50 34.75 45.50 48.00
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Industry Sector

Top Investor Posts

red ninja: "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." There is certainly a fair bit of investor blood in the street with VLG, some of it may even be from Stonehage Fleming.
thedudie: hTTps:// From 4.4%
red ninja: downing-strategic-micro-cap-investment-trust September factsheet :- "Venture Life (-25.9%) was the standout disappointment in the month, with management disclosing further margin headwinds despite only releasing a trading statement the prior month. As the business grows organically and with the additions of the recent acquisitions and a relatively fixed manufacturing overhead, margins and earnings should improve. " HTtps://
sev22: Here is Simon Thompson's latest column released last night: Venture Life: Investors overlook massive earnings upgrades. It’s not often that a company releases a trading update, analysts upgrade their current year EPS estimates by 19 per cent and introduce estimates that indicate 38 per cent EPS growth next year, and the share price sheds a third of its value. However, that is exactly what has happened to Aim-traded Venture Life (VLG:65p), a developer, manufacturer and distributor of products for the self-care markets. Clearly, investors have been spooked by news of materially lower sales of hand sanitising gels and sales of the company’s Dentyl products to its Chinese partner. In the first half of 2021, these two segments delivered £0.3m of combined revenue, down from £5.5m in the first half of 2020, which explains why Venture’s first half revenue declined from £16.8m to £13.8m. Please note the latter figure includes a £1.1m revenue contribution from the recent acquisition of BBI Healthcare, a highly profitable global market leading women's health and diabetes/energy management company. Excluding these revenue streams, Venture’s other legacy businesses performed well, delivering 9 per cent higher revenue of £12.4m in the six-month period. The shortfall prompted house broker to rein in its 2021 revenue estimate from £33m to £29.2m for Venture’s legacy businesses, before accounting for the contribution from this summer’s earnings enhancing acquisitions which has prompted earnings upgrades. Though that’s disappointing, it is in no way a disaster given that the same businesses posted revenue of £30.1m in 2020, so effectively their revenue could only decline by 3 per cent year on year. I am not sure that many investors selling out have grasped this fact. True, the overstocking of hand sanitising gel in retail channels (that resulted from panic buying last year) will take time to unwind, so the contribution from this opportunistic segment isn’t going to be anything like last year. However, analysts weren’t factoring much in the way of second half sales in any case. More importantly, Venture’s partner for Dentyl in China is still suffering from the effects of the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020 on its offline business, so is not taking new stock at the rate anticipated when it entered the distribution agreement in 2020. With a debtor balance of less than £300,000 outstanding, below the provision made in last year’s accounts, Venture could terminate the distribution agreement, as it’s entitled to, and take its business elsewhere effectively at nil cost. Chief executive Jerry Randall confirmed that he is talking to other European based companies which have operations in China with a view to entering an agreement with them unless the current distributor fulfils its obligations. Mr Randall also points out that Venture’s order book (pre-acquisitions and excluding orders for the China partner) is higher year on year despite the lockdowns across many markets, and expects Venture to produce meaningful revenue and profit growth in 2021. Unfortunately, the lack of earnings guidance in last Friday’s trading update has left retail investors in the dark, which has exacerbated the share price fall. I can shed some light on the matter. Crunching the numbers House broker Cenkos Securities produced a detailed note for clients which included material earnings upgrades, even if investors have ignored them, or perhaps more likely are simply unaware of them. The broker expects BBI to produce annual gross profit of £6.1m on revenue of £10.5m in 2021, and has taken a seven-month contribution from this high margin (58 per cent) business in its 2021 forecast. Cenkos also expects the more recent acquisition of Helsin Healthcare’s oncology support products to deliver 2021 gross profit of £1.3m on sales of £2.5m, and has embedded a five-month contribution into its 2021 forecasts. Combined the two acquisitions add £6.74m to 2021 revenue which when added to Cenkos’ £29.2m reduced forecast for Venture’s legacy business means that annual revenue should still rise 20 per cent to £36m. On a gross margin of 43 per cent this produces gross profit of £15.6m, up from £12.8m in 2020 and £14.3m previously forecast, hence the upgrade in current year Ebitda from £7m to £8.4m and the £1m upgrade in operating profit to £5.6m. On this basis, earnings per share (EPS) rises by 19 per cent to 4.53p. Mr Randall is comfortable with these forecasts. He also notes that proforma net debt of £5m (after accounting for all acquisitions) should unwind to Cenkos’ forecast (£2.1m) by the year-end after factoring in the second half profit contribution and working capital flows. More importantly, the cost savings (staff costs, facilities etc) and revenue synergies (extension of distribution agreement into new territories) from BBI underpin bumper profit growth in 2022, hence why Cenkos believe that BBI can contribute £7m of gross profit (up from £6.1m forecast in 2021) on £12.1m revenue next year. Analysts also believe that Helsin will generate gross profit of £1.6m on revenue of £3m in 2022, too, a sensible prediction given that sales are set to rebound as hospitals restart oncology treatments post pandemic. 2022 earnings growth materially under priced The point is that the contribution from both acquisitions accounts for 40 per cent of Cenkos’ £21m gross profit estimate for 2022 and a third of its £46m revenue estimate. Their contribution de-risks the investment case by diversifying the product offering, while offering a source of profit growth by reinvigorating the brands through self-help measures. Moreover, the acquisitions generate higher gross margins, which is why Cenkos expect Ebitda to rise from £8.5m to £11.95m in 2022. To put that figure into perspective, it’s more or less in line with the upgrade I was looking for in my article last week (‘Exploiting an earnings upgrade opportunity’, 10 August 2021). So, with Ebitda forecast to rise by £3.5m and depreciation charges and amortisation charges only rising by £0.5m, then effectively 85 per cent of next year’s Ebitda growth should be converted into operating profit, hence why Cenkos expect operating profit to rise from £5.6m to £8.5m in 2022 and deliver 38 per cent higher EPS of 6.21p. On this basis, the shares are trading on a miserly, forward PE ratio of 10.5. If anything, the risk to 2022 earnings estimates is skewed to the upside. That’s because Randall confirmed that the company has firepower of £20m plus through Venture’s new bank facility to make further earnings accretive acquisitions. In my view, there has been a massive overreaction to last week’s trading update – 2022 forecasts are in line with the expectations I outlined in last week’s article – and the share price fall is not only overdone, but is likely to prove a cracking buying opportunity. I am certainly not changing my 130p target price. BUY.
melody9999: I agree with Simon Thomson from the Investors Chronicle that the share price fall has been a massive over-reaction; hence why I did not sell a single share. His summary below: So, with Ebitda forecast to rise by £3.5m and depreciation charges and amortisation charges only rising by £0.5m, then effectively 85 per cent of next year’s Ebitda growth should be converted into operating profit, hence why Cenkos expect operating profit to rise from £5.6m to £8.5m in 2022 and deliver 38 per cent higher EPS of 6.21p. On this basis, the shares are trading on a miserly, forward PE ratio of 10.5. If anything, the risk to 2022 earnings estimates is skewed to the upside. That’s because Randall confirmed that the company has firepower of £20m plus through Venture’s new bank facility to make further earnings accretive acquisitions. In my view, there has been a massive overreaction to last week’s trading update – 2022 forecasts are in line with the expectations I outlined in last week’s article – and the share price fall is not only overdone, but is likely to prove a cracking buying opportunity. I am certainly not changing my 130p target price. Buy.
rivaldo: Indeed - and still lots of upside to ST's 130p target price. Investors are "guaranteed some hefty earnings upgrades" here..... Https://
red ninja: Asian markets had a down day that may have sparked a bit of a sell off, given investors are impatiently waiting for more takeover news. Lots of smallish sells, but I notice 3 x 50k + a 60k buys between 9-10. Hopefully the larger trades buyer/s is/are smarter than the small trade sellers.
tell sid: Great Trading Update from Alpha Growth (ALGW) showing strong growth: hTTps:// Alpha Growth PLC 19 July 2021 Trading Update Q2 2021 Alpha Growth Plc (LSE: ALGW and OTCQB: ALPGF), a leading financial services specialist in the growing uncorrelated longevity asset class is very pleased to provide a trading update for Q2 2021. Key Highlights for the quarter -- Aggregate assets under control of the group have grown by circa $40m in the past quarter alone, increasing from $300m to circa $340m. -- Providence Life Assurance Company (PLAC) has increased its balance sheet assets from $275m to over $308m, an increase of more than $33m. -- The Black Oak Alpha Growth Fund has increased to circa $30m in assets, up from $22m at the beginning of the year and an increase of $4.5m in the past quarter alone. -- A strategic relationship has been formed with Eaton Partners, a tier 1 capital introducer, to further accelerate growth in AUM. Eaton Partners have been instrumental in raising over $100bn in capital for funds since inception and are extremely well regarded in the industry. -- Peter Gilman has been appointed as a special advisor to Alpha Growth. Peter is the former CEO and founder of Aegon Extraordinary Markets where he successfully built a business that generated revenues in excess of $2bn. Alpha Growth has enjoyed an extremely strong first half of the year and continues to build upon its three main strategies; the following table outlines these strategies which have all been built around key client trends and market requirements. / Strategy: Separate Managed Accounts As previously announced, the Company's discussions with one of the UK's largest and most prestigious asset managers to secure a short-term credit facility were almost concluded with the addition of direct asset investments by the asset manager, as well as the originally contemplated credit facility. The UK asset manager to date has been working through internal underwriting and structuring issues which have delayed the approval for both the credit facility and direct asset purchase. We were anticipating a late April conclusion however the complexities of creating a framework for future additional investments by the asset manager, along with the challenges presented by Covid, have led to delays. Further announcements will be made in due course and we continue to work closely with them to ensure a successful conclusion. The Company views its exercise with the UK asset manager as time well invested in developing its separate managed account strategy, this has increased the interest and exposure from other significant asset managers that we are now working with to offer a similar strategy to investors for similar asset purchase opportunities and/or credit facilities. Alpha Growth is working with Eaton Partners, a tier 1 capital introducer and part of the global Stifel Financial Group, for introductions relating to separate managed accounts. This will substantially increase our marketing activity for this strategy and management expect that this will lead to significant growth. The Company also continues to progress the Alpha Growth & Income (AGI) strategy, this strategy is a combination of life settlements and life contingent structured settlements hedged by a life insurance policy that is suitable for investors seeking cashflow and growth, funded in either a separate managed account or as a co-mingled fund with a minimum investment of $50 million. It is anticipated that this strategy will be complementary to PLAC's client base and separate managed account investors. Strategy: The BlackOak Alpha Growth Fund Further building upon the impressive growth rate of the BlackOak Alpha Growth Fund in the first quarter, the Fund closed the second quarter with circa $30 million in assets - An increase of $4.5m. This significant increase has been driven by a combination of new investors, as well as additional contributions from existing investors. The 36% growth in net assets during the first 6 months of this year gives validation to this strategy and we expect to see continued strong growth through the remainder of this year and beyond. With the additional contributions, the Fund has now in excess of 81 life settlements with a total face value of over $65 million and continues to add to the well diversified portfolio. The Fund continues to grow its existing network of registered investment advisors who are the primary sources of the contributions. Strategy: Providence Life Assurance Company Ltd. The Directors continue to be pleased with the performance of its investment in Providence Life Assurance Company Ltd (PLAC). The acquisition and onboarding of the Company's Directors, Gobind Sahney and Jason Sutherland, is now complete and we are pleased to announce that the assets of PLAC as of the end of May 2021 totaled $308 million, this represents a significant increase from the previously reported $275 million. As previously announced, we are planning to grow PLAC substantially by the execution of our build and buy strategy. From a buy perspective, we continue to progress our strong pipeline of acquisition opportunities and will look forward to updating the market when appropriate. From a build perspective, we continue to leverage PLAC's existing relationships with fund managers in the alternatives, fixed income, and equities space. We are very pleased to be working with fund managers from prestigious companies such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Coutts, Golub Capital, etc. We are also pleased to name Peter Gilman as a special advisor to Alpha Growth. He is the founder and former CEO of AEGON's Extraordinary Markets, where he built a successful insurance business that generated annual revenues in excess of $2 billion dollars and contributed over $1 billion of embedded value to AEGON. He also developed various international strategies and HNW businesses that generated several billion dollars of revenue. We are looking forward to working closely with Peter in accelerating the growth of PLAC as well as bringing new strategies to Alpha. Prospectus The Company is working with its legal and accounting advisors to seek to meet the prospectus requirements against the background of an acquisition of an insurance group that has previously presented financial statements in line with Bermuda regulatory requirements but not the IFRS accounting standard which the Company adheres to. This entails liaising with the FCA as well as seeking additional accounting advice and may possibly require some additional updating of the insurance company's accounts. We appreciate the patience of our shareholders whilst we work through these issues. We would like to clarify that the Company's closing of the transaction with the seller of Providence was originally conditional on the FCA approving the Prospectus, along with required Bermuda regulatory approvals. Once the Bermuda regulatory approvals were received, the seller wished to close and in conference with Pello, the Company's broker, the placing was completed as announced. The placing agreement was conditional on the shareholder approval at the Company's annual general meeting to issue new shares, and the Placing Shares were issued on 15 March 2021 as stated in our announcement on 8 March 2021. The issue of the Placing Shares was not specifically conditional on the publication of the Prospectus. Once the FCA approves the Prospectus, the shares will be admitted for trading on the standard list of the London Stock Exchange as previously stated. A further announcement will be made once the Prospectus has been published. Chairman Statement Gobind Sahney, Alpha Growth Executive Chairman, stated, "We have enjoyed another very strong quarter of growth across our business and we are incredibly excited about some of the opportunities that the group has in the second half of this year. Despite Covid naturally delaying some decision making, we have achieved market leading growth and remain extremely confident in the prospects of the group." Gobind continued, "We are very pleased to welcome Peter Gilman as a special advisor to Alpha Growth and look forward to working with him as we accelerate our growth plans. We are also looking forward to working with Eaton Partners as we continue to deliver upon our goal of creating a substantial and fast-growing financial services company." The key focus areas going forward are: -- Increase assets across the group -- Execute our build and buy strategy -- Expand and grow all strategies -- Seek new opportunities to meet client driven demand -- Add specialized skill sets to the team More information will be shared by the Company in due course.
rivaldo: N+1 Singer this morning have increased their fair value to 140p with a further upgarde likely to 165p: "Using consistent methodology, i.e. 15x prospective EV/EBITDA, our fair value estimate moves to 140p (vs 114p). Investors should note, however, that 1) the broadening of the brand portfolio, 2) entry into a new growth vertical, and 3) margin expansion should underpin some rating expansion in our view. Using a 17.5x multiple would increase fair value to c165p based on existing forecasts."
frankwhite: My original suspicions that the imminent aquisition was being delayed/having issues still holds true. Looking at the calibre of investors in the open offer is no justification to follow them blindly. I also took up the open offer at 80p and which I oversubscribed for. Once I saw no progress taking place I had my suspicions and sold all of them. Until there is news I won't be investing here but GLA just be careful not to follow others like sheep. Remember Lakehouse one of Mark Slater's investments, it went nowhere and think has gone private now where investors lost out significant sums, another that I'm sure you all remember is Quindell where intis all got caught out with major loses.
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