Velocys Share Discussion Threads

[gac141] 29/9/2016 15:54

I do not think they will be making fuels primarily fluky.

Specialist products which can sell at $300/b might be the way they are going to go.

"In its 2016 Annual Energy Outlook Early Release, the US Energy Intelligence Agency (US EIA) predicts a slow upturn in oil prices to around $48 per barrel in 2018. A return to levels of $90 per barrel is not to be expected over the short or medium term. Despite that, plant economics remain favourable for smaller scale GTL projects that access low price feedstocks, exploit local situations in isolated areas where the cost of fuel is high, or target high value speciality products. Prices for wax are decoupled from oil; the price for some cuts of Fischer-Tropsch (FT) wax is as much as US$300 per barrel and the US supply of wax for use in-country has decreased by 66% since the late 1990s. The outlook for wax pricing, and the wax market in general, is positive"

[fluky] 29/9/2016 15:48

SH: you are correct of course about Velocys. I was thinking in terms of the gasification step. Such a small gasifier is not economical. However, if Revolution Fuels wants to drop $300M to build this, I am OK and so is Velocys. We have to be realistic, making liquid fuels from gas or coal is not economical at the current crude oil price.

[meijiman] 29/9/2016 15:33

South Africa is today a big buyer of Iranian crude. Vitol were very active in supplying in the apartheid era.

[sheep_herder] 29/9/2016 15:33

fluky - erm, isn't the whole point of Velocys that they make plants down to 1500bpd feasible?

[fluky] 29/9/2016 15:08

A few comments:
- If Velocys calls Revolution Fuels LLC a "major fuels player" then I doubt their judgement.
- The proposed plant capacity is around 1900 bpd which is very small for a CTL plant. Synfuels China's demo CTL plant is 4000 bpd.
- A little history: F-T synthesis (FTS) was first invented by German scientists F. Fischer and H. Tropsch in 1923. F-T synthesis later became the basis of, and principal step in, CTL technology. The first commercial-scale CTL plant was built by Ruhrchemie, a German company, in 1934 and was put into operation in 1936. In 1955, Sasol successfully commercialized the first CTL plant using a fixed bed reactor in South Africa. After some 50 years of continuous development, Sasol has become the largest producer of CTL fuels today. Also keep in mind that this process development was forced by the lack of access to crude oil.
- Good find, gac141.

[visionon] 29/9/2016 12:25

Noted and thanks. It's confusing, there seems to be a Revolution Fuels LLC and a Revolution Biofuels LLC. I think the latter may be the cooking oil job and they are in different states so perhaps not related.

What is not clear is where the money would come from for such a plant and how Revolution Fuels can fit with the expression "major fuels player" in the VLS report and accounts when very little seems to be known about them not just by us here but by the press over there.

Maybe this is in fact another possible project not previously hinted at and the "major fuels player" is someone we actually recognise for a project gac141 will find next. Presumably VLS technology is being offered on various projects not just the ones we think we know about.

Anyway, a good find gac141.

[sheep_herder] 29/9/2016 11:57

One question I forgot to ask, but as an equity partner in Envia, doesn't VLS have income from the sale of fuel produced?

[gac141] 29/9/2016 11:43

Shares Magazine.. 29th September

Small scale gas-to-liquids (GTL) play Velocys (VLS:AIM) is on the cusp of demonstrating its technology is commercial. With the shares bumping around close to all-time lows there is an attractive entry point ahead of the commercial milestone and investors with an appetite for risk should buy now.

[gac141] 29/9/2016 10:46

There is no doubt that Velocys has disappointed many but I feel we are at that point when Velocys will deliver in the near term. Red Rock being one of them. Of course the drop in Oil prices could not be accounted for and Velocys cannot take the blame for that one.

[meijiman] 29/9/2016 10:38

All these broker targets seem to be a waste of time. Clearly these brokers need to convince clients of the buy case.There has been far too much talk at this company over many years so its no wonder people remain unconvinced.............

[gac141] 29/9/2016 10:23

Clearly there is stock being leaked into the market otherwise the share price would be 50p by now..however it should not be long before they will have to announce a reduced shareholding( If a 3%+ holder) or they will run out and the overhang clears leaving room for good upward momentum.

[gac141] 29/9/2016 10:00

2016.09.29. 06:02 in category MLB (Number of votes: 0) Vote!
Velocys PLC (VLS) PT Raised to GBX 110 at Canaccord Genuity


Velocys PLC (LON:VLS) had its price target lifted by equities researchers at Canaccord Genuity from GBX 95 ($1.24) to GBX 110 ($1.44) in a research note issued to investors on Tuesday. Canaccord Genuity’s price target would indicate a potential upside of 268.20% from the stock’s current price. Separately, Numis Securities Ltd reaffirmed a “buy” rating

[haydock] 29/9/2016 09:55

The great Fingers of chart fame, has just been active & drawn a chart or two for fun.
On one of these he passed the comment:

30p is always difficult for a share to get past & can only be achieved with volume.
Or words to that effect.
VLS is ready, looking for the volume.

[gac141] 29/9/2016 09:48

Fisher Tropsch is the technology behind all our business it was further developed by Nasa for the Space Agency and further through Velocys which was spun out of the Battelle Institute. Velocys was acquired by Oxford Catalyst who further developed it using micro channel technology. Would be good for you to see the time and effort and money that has got Velocys to where it is today.

[goodgrief] 29/9/2016 09:18

Probably even worse...'Utah is willing to let any and all dirty projects go forward': Sierra Club objects to plan for coal-to-liquids plant''The multiphase process releases emissions in every step and consumes large amounts of water.'

[gac141] 29/9/2016 09:17

Sorry in my haste put the wrong Web page but it is definitely Revolution fuels .

[meijiman] 29/9/2016 09:14

Didn't SASOL in S Africa make fuels from coal. Maybe they still do?

[sheep_herder] 29/9/2016 09:12

So this is quite big news is it not? I hadn't realised that you could use coal for this proces too. Doesn't the world have huge coal reserves that we don't want to burn in power stations any more? Any idea how coal-to-liquid conversion compares environmentally to burning it in power stations?

[sheep_herder] 29/9/2016 09:09

gac is correct. I found a document on the Utah govt pages that confirms Velocys as the provider.




Edit - for those that can't be bothered to download. This is in the PDF:

Fischer-Tropsch Unit
The clean dry syngas that has undergone treatment for removal of contaminants enters the FT unit which
is supplied by the Velocys Corporation.

[visionon] 29/9/2016 08:56

gac141. are you sure of your facts here ?

Revolution Fuels with an 's' seems to be a small private US company headed by Julie Wheeler and referred to in 2015 as a 'startup'. In VLS accounts page 4 they refer to a 'major fuels player'. They don't sound the same unless Revolution Fuels has got big very quickly.

hxxp://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/news/2015/03/31/grease-to-biodiesel-truck-startup-revolution-fuels.html

Revolution Fuel without an 's' seems to be a small London base company servicing yachts and private jets/helicopters. They don't look like a major fuels player either.

Only a quick search but I have my doubts at the moment. Would welcome views of others.

[gac141] 29/9/2016 08:22

It took a while but if you put in separately air permit for gas to liquids ,Waste to liquids and finally coal to liquids and set the time frame for in last year. After much trolling I found the Utah State had issued one in june july to Revolution for their plant using Fisher Tropsch technology. A quick look at the site you realise they are a green and ethical company. Too many coincidences and there are very few air permits granted this year that also coincide with Velocys announcements.

You could ask the management if you are unsure. As this is in the public domain ....

[sheep_herder] 29/9/2016 07:01

Looks good but where did you see the connection to Velosys? I don't see any mention.

[gac141] 29/9/2016 06:18

The point is Velocys has never mentioned the name of this company. Yet it looks like they are for real and obviously were preventing Velocys from mentioning their name by some disclosure agreement. As this has gone all the way to air pirmit I would expect it to make FID in the next 6 months...

The other thing that is shows is our technology is seriously being consided in use for Coal to liquids..

Even you can't put a dampner on this news fluky...