Vane Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[knowing] 05/9/2012 10:46

Only offering 37.5K now Thinking

[thinking] 05/9/2012 10:45

Trying for 250k at 0.75 and struggling this am

[knowing] 05/9/2012 10:04

Down to 50K on offer

[knowing] 05/9/2012 09:27

.75 for 150K this morning

[thinking] 04/9/2012 16:45

I use NW same as TDW I think and HL for my SIPP, but had the fill and kill rejected by HL and had tried NW and couldn't get close this time, having said that I got lucky like you when I got some at 0.62p that was with a limit order at o.65p, sometime ago I only want about 300k more this time, hence the 175k which I would have repeated.

[opaldouglas] 04/9/2012 16:37

Hi Thinking, TDW. I put in a limit order at .75 but was happy to get .719p

[knowing] 04/9/2012 16:23

Only 100K at .75 available now

[thinking] 04/9/2012 15:35

opal, just been quoted 0.789 to buy but have a fill or kill in at 0.719 for 175k just in case, what broker did u use?

[thinking] 04/9/2012 15:25

I will join you with another 175k or so if I can get them at that price

[opaldouglas] 04/9/2012 14:34

Actual spread has reduced once again, I've had another nibble today and was able to buy at .719.

[opaldouglas] 03/9/2012 17:40

Thanks for the link Dr Kay, certainly backs up what most on here think.

[thinking] 03/9/2012 11:42

Good and imo accurate article Dr_Kay certainly undervalued, lets see what the interims do for the price!

[dr_kay] 03/9/2012 10:55

Interims
29/09/11
06/09/10
28/08/09
10/09/08
28/09/07
12/09/06
05/09/05

VML write-up here

[thinking] 03/9/2012 10:34

Thanks, thats probably why I couldn't find any mention of the dates on their website, or the header, like you I think they should be good, we will probably see alittle extra violume the day before and then bang!

[martin c-j] 03/9/2012 09:43

They don't usually give a date for interims. They tend to just release them. Could be any day now between tomorrow and the end of the month. They tend to release news on tuesdays, so it could be tomorrow, and as it should be good news they shouldn't be delaying them.

[thinking] 03/9/2012 09:16

Do we know a date for the interims?

[opaldouglas] 03/9/2012 00:09

Combo, Gold price is looking healthy for Vane. Really looking forward to Interims, i'll be watching volume closely.

Withdrawn uranium concessions are up for discussion again in October as anti mining supporters attempt to throw out four lawsuits filled against secretary's decision to stop uranium exploration in N Arizona (one of which is Vanes).

Although market has obviously discounted Vanes N Arizona uranium properties theirs always a chance the judge may rule in favour of lawsuits and allow them to proceed.

Will be interesting to see how they progress.

[combo83] 31/8/2012 22:29

Nice positive response to Bernanke's comments today.

[martin c-j] 29/8/2012 10:31

Gives you some idea of value for uranium sites. These are similar to the North Wash properties that VML gave up earlier this year.

[combo83] 27/8/2012 15:59

Agree with above. I think the CEO is not being unduly optimistic in stating a placing won't be needed. Based on existing cash in the bank of £1.8m ($2.86m), plus conservative revenues this year: -

cash + Q1 + Q2 + Q3 + Q4
2.86 + 2.61 + 2.77 + 3.00 + 3.00 = $14.24m

With cash costs averaging around 36% of revenues, that should equate to $10.14m cash in the bank at year end before exploration/other costs are subtracted. It's anyone's guess what they might be, but based on drilling 10-15 holes between Jan-Dec I figure we could be ending the year with a cash position approx. £4-5m GBP. That's 2-3x more than year end 2010 or 2011 figures. It's more cash than was raised through all placings in 2010 and 2011 combined.

[opaldouglas] 27/8/2012 11:08

Cerrita, please take a look at my previous post from 11 Aug. I foresee Vane have security of supply all the way up to 2018 based on current information. The one problem that Vane have is it would be uneconomical to produce a NI 43-101 compliant resource report to each concession hence why they only state medium term security of supply as opposed to long term security of supply.




opaldouglas
11 Aug'12 - 14:35 - 142 of 178 edit

Chaps, after digging a little further i see Mexican operations panning out as below.

*Note, I've based production on 9000t per qtr via SDA mill and overall resources as:

*La Colorada resource: 43,460 tonnes
*Maria Fernanda resource: 100,000 tonnes (estimate)
*Jorge Luis resource: 10,000 tonnes (estimate)
*La Valenzuela resource: 43,000 tonnes
*Remaining Diablito ore.
Total Ore = 200,920t (5.6 years supply @ 9000t per qtr)

2012
Q3: Diablito (3500t high grade ore) & La Colorada (5500t)
Q4: La Colorada (7500t) Diablito (240t) Maria Fernanda (1260t)
2013
Q1: La Colorada (7500t) Diablito (240t) Maria Fernanda (1260t)
Q2: La Colorada (7500t) Diablito (240t) Maria Fernanda (1260t)
Q3: La Colorada (7500t) Diablito (240t) Maria Fernanda (1260t)
Q4: La Colorada (7500t) Diablito (240t) Maria Fernanda (1260t)
2014
Q1: Maria Fernanda (9000t)
Q2: Maria Fernanda (9000t)
Q3: Maria Fernanda (9000t)
Q4: Maria Fernanda (9000t)
2015
Q1: Maria Fernanda (9000t)
Q2: Maria Fernanda (9000t)
Q3: Maria Fernanda (9000t)
Q4: Maria Fernanda (9000t)
2016
Q1: Maria Fernanda (9000t)
Q2: Maria Fernanda (9000t)
Q3: Maria Fernanda (3700t) Jorge Luis (5300t)
Q4: Jorge Luis (4700t)
2017
Q1: La Valenzuela (9000t)
Q2: La Valenzuela (9000t)
Q3: La Valenzuela (9000t)
Q4: La Valenzuela (9000t)
2018
Q1: La Valenzuela (7000t)

La Colorada resource estimate is 43,460 tonnes as per Vanes recent annoncement(

I've based Maria Fernanda resource estimate at 100,000 tonnes given that its 5 times the size of La Colorada and contains two vein systems both of which are larger than single vein system in La Colorada.

Jorge Luis resource estimate appears somewhat smaller in my opinion and as such I've estimated 10,000 tonnes of ore (similar size to Colorada but only a 75m strike length)

La Valenzuela resource estimate: 43,000 tonnes (6.8 g/T Au (9,400 oz. Au) and unspecified silver has been inferred) as per Vanes announcement: (

I know these are best guess estimates but if these numbers are anywhere near correct Vane should have ample supply all the way through to 2018 based on 9000t per qtr.

It should be noted that Vanes intention is to develop several addition mines as announced in Feb which will further increase production at a rate of 50 tonnes per mine, per day.

"Within the 1,500 km2 area covered by the JV, numerous other precious metals vein targets exist as per the "Geological-Mining Monograph of the State of Sinaloa" published by the Consejo de Resursos Minerales, and the Board anticipates that these will be explored and evaluated during the course of the JV. The Board's intention is that the JV will develop several additional projects that will be capable of each supplying 50+ tonnes of ore per day which, the Board believes, would in turn justify the construction of an additional mill in a location more central to the mines. Concentrates from that mill would then be processed by leaching and Merrill Crowe precipitation at the SDA Mill or sent to the smelter."

Kooba - So either Vanes continues with current concessions till 2018 (I've just realised this coincidental matches figure you quoted from Edison note) based on estimates or they bring the new mill online and ramp up production whilst bringing online further concessions/acquisitions.

I personally hope they ramp up production but as long as this is funded purely by incoming revenues and doesn't effect our copper exploration programme.

Phew - that took longer than i intended!

[opaldouglas] 27/8/2012 11:00

Cerrito,

I believe Vane shareholders have a firm reason to believe no cash calls are imminent and i also believe if this was the case Vane are in a substantially better footing now then ever before.

Cash in bank at turn of year was circa 1.8m after repaying .5m loan notes. This coupled with record revenues in recent 3 qtrs will dramatically increase Vanes cash position. Given this significant progress i don't anticipate any further cash calls, on the contrary i believe Vane will have adequate cash in the bank to continue exploration programme and progress Mexican operations.

Vane are set to achieve revenues of $11,400,000 this year compared to $3,680,000 in 2011... that an increase of $8M dollars this year alone. Certainly more than enough to fund current exploration costs and money in the bank also.

[icetonic] 27/8/2012 09:49

I think with Mexico doing well for us we shouldn't really need to concern ourselves with share dilutions (touch wood). 2012 should see vml make profit, and I believe that profit needs to be invested back into the business in terms of assets - for instance the net asset worth of vml is 6.5m vs. net asset worth of 240m for bor - hence the difference in market cap. I'm sure there are other factors to consider but net assets is a key one.

[cerrito] 26/8/2012 20:51

Been looking to top up as I feel like others that the price is attractive-mind you I said that when I bought shares at 14p.
I have also been looking at the shareholder base which is pretty fragmented but not the most fragmented I have in my portfolio . The directors hold 36.8m of the 442m shares outstanding and other major investors (ie with more than 1.57% of the company) own another 72.5m ie combined about 24.6% of the total shares.
With such a fragmented shareholder base –the largest shareholder has 4.29% of the shares-and frankly a weak broker, no wonder the last equity issue was such a disaster.
If they have to do another equity issue, one hopes there will be more substantial takers but there is no firm reason to believe that to be the case.
Will they be able to survive without another equity issue.?.Difficult to say. I note that the Going Concern statement says they reckon they have enough cash to fund budgeted exploration expenditure till Dec 2013. I am surprised that they have cash for such a long period, though that no doubt reflects the slow issuance of permits in New Mexico and Arizona.As they say they can adjust their exploration programme to cash available; there will of course be capital costs involved in bringing the three other JV Mexican concessions on stream and not clear how any acquisition they talk about on page 6 of the AR would be funded.
Good news then is that probably can continue for another year without a further equity increase; not so good news is that may not be any news that will significantly move the share price one way or the other.

[combo83] 24/8/2012 21:02

Some views on where gold could be heading (from John Embry at Sprott Asset Management) --

And from King World News --

And to balance it out, a bearish view:

Random weekend musing: Just looking at the recent news for Borland and Southern (BOR) which got me thinking about VML. Interesting that oil exploration in the South Falklands Basin costs around $50-75 million per well -- very high risk -- and BOR recently discovered 190 million barrels of oil. The in-situ value of that oil ($5-10/barrel) is similar to the in-situ value of Cu in a large porphyry ($73/tonne according to Edison, or around 40 cents per tonne of ore depending on grade).

Now if only the market would get as excited about Cu porphyry exploration as it does about oil! At $100-150k and a few weeks per exploration hole, seems obvious which investment makes more sense, yet BOR was recently valued around £500m before even making a discovery!