Vanco Share Discussion Threads

[taffee] 22/2/2008 09:16

pugugly

rang morten and he clarified..at year end contracts were not signed as already stated but this would not affect the p and l for the year..apparently

speaking to morten...this is potentially a big winner or if you believe the sellers,its going bust.

[seizetheday] 22/2/2008 09:13

PUGUGLY - 22 Feb'08 - 08:39 - 746 of 751


Taffee:>: Re your point on contracts - From the release it would appear that they have NOT been signed- otherwise I would have expected it to say that they had. THIS OMISSION (imo & dyor) is for me very worrying.


sadly i agree

[masurenguy] 22/2/2008 08:56

"philjeans - 22 Feb'08 - 08:44 - 748 of 750: Shorters about to be burned! All of your pathetic arguments are already in the price!"

I'm really surprised by this. In the past I thought that you were a well informed poster but these superficial cliches are just undermining your credibility !

[pugugly] 22/2/2008 08:51

taffe:> Suggest you contact Morton and ask him to clarify.

[taffee] 22/2/2008 08:46

pugugly.......looks to me like they have been signed and included in the accounts for last year....totally unclear

[philjeans] 22/2/2008 08:44

Shorters about to be burned!

All of your pathetic arguments are already in the price!

[fgump] 22/2/2008 08:42

People keep talking about Vanco making this million that million for the year and trading on 3 x PE or 5 x PE. Reality is the P&L profit does not convert to cash and thats why their accounts are being reviewed. The bank needs to know its debt is safe. This is now the 2nd or 3rd statement showing a further decline/review of accounting standards.

[pugugly] 22/2/2008 08:39

Taffee:>: Re your point on contracts - From the release it would appear that they have NOT been signed- otherwise I would have expected it to say that they had. THIS OMISSION (imo & dyor) is for me very worrying.

[masurenguy] 22/2/2008 08:34

"the debt is more overdraft"

That is an absurd statement - debt is debt, whether it's a fixed term loan or overdraft - you really love to bury your head in the sand, don't you !

I don't think that they will go bust but I believe that they have significant problems arising from the undercapitalization of the company in relation to the business model. The latter is clearly sound but could be undermined by the former. They could be a acquisition target for a cash rich predator or even PE at a sub £100m price.

[davius] 22/2/2008 08:30

It would have been nice to have seen something more encouragingly worded. A cynic might think that both the current and last release were designed to bring the price down with the intention of an MBO on the cheap...

Current P/E is now 4.75 and with profits forecast at in excess of £20m for the year to end January this will drop to 3.5. The update should have steadied things but doesn't appear to me to have been written positively enough to put off shorters of this stock.

Even with high net debt (which everyone must by now understand is a cashflow issue and not a reflection of total assets minus total liabilities) I'd be surprised if the shorters can sustain this share price for long. But it may be we'll have to wait until the mid April prelimaries before we get back to a more appropriate share price.

[seizetheday] 22/2/2008 08:26

dismissing the debt issue and not mentioning about those contracts (closed or not?) would worry me.

Dead cat bounce and just wait for another drop.


just my O

[taffee] 22/2/2008 08:22

the debt is more overdraft....they have a 500 mill pipeline of business booked

[seizetheday] 22/2/2008 08:21

it will go bust, too much debt, sorry

The former holder of VAN (he sold before the decline) Robbie Burns NT describes in his book an identical situation for another company which boasted a huge increase in profits (341% or so) and went in admin after a few months because the bank pulled the plug on their huge debt.

[masurenguy] 22/2/2008 08:20

Get real - 130K shares traded in the first 20 minutes is hardly 'low volume' !
That's more than Aviva who are a FTSE100 company !

[moob] 22/2/2008 08:20

debt is a worry for the banks i would think when accounting policies are in consideration!!!

[windjammer] 22/2/2008 08:19

they ain`t having my shares for this price

[taffee] 22/2/2008 08:14

down on low volume......could be a bear trap.....

[masurenguy] 22/2/2008 08:14

"Debt was covered in previous announcement."

Just dismissed as being of anecdotal interest !

In the statement issued 3 weeks ago they stated that net dent at the year end was EXPECTED to be circa £63m and that net debt for h2 was EXPECTED to be £79m. These are serious numbers which also take Vanco close to their banking covenants so shouldn't they be addressed and updated !

[philjeans] 22/2/2008 08:12

PW brought in to satisfy the city but obviously will just be tinkering around the edges - nothing significant and any provisioning will not be material.

[philjeans] 22/2/2008 08:07

Debt was covered in previous announcement.

Good to hear there are no skeletons in there - all well and strong comments on outlook.

Raging buy.

[masurenguy] 22/2/2008 07:56

"moob - 22 Feb'08 - 07:34 - 731 of 732: HOW MUCH DEBT WAS THERE???"

No reference to debt at all - wonder why since this is such a critical issue !

[taffee] 22/2/2008 07:35

its not clear whether the deal which were delayed have now been closed....I assume they have???

[moob] 22/2/2008 07:34

HOW MUCH DEBT WAS THERE???

[moob] 22/2/2008 07:34

new fd, new audtors, change to revenue recognition & WIP policies, HOW MUCH DEBT??

[taffee] 22/2/2008 07:31

no evil was wrong in parts....he may even go long now